Schrodinger’s Household Spending!

Yesterday I went through the latest ABS data on retail and highlighted that the Black Friday sales supported household spending growth through November. This is an important indicator on the state of the economy and is a factor which will influence the RBA’s February rate cut call.

But just like the proverbial Schrodinger’s cat – a famous thought experiment that demonstrates the idea in quantum physics that tiny particles can be in two states at once until they’re observed. It asks you to imagine a cat in a box with a mechanism that might kill it. Until you look inside, the cat is both alive and dead at the same time, its hard to tell what is really going on.

Actually, analysts are all over the place on these numbers, and the household spending indicators we got today from the ABS continued the confusion.

So it remains to be seen whether this uplift will be carried into 2025 or if it is a result of price-sensitive consumers capitalising on bargains and the typical festive season spending surge.

Let me know in the comments below, did you spend big over the holiday period, or hunkered down seeking bargains through the sales, along with many I see in my surveys?

I suspect both is true, which will make the RBA’s job hard next month. Though the simple truth I come back to is more are being sucked into the negative cash flow vortex thanks to the higher for longer interest rates. Which is not good news for the cat in the box!

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DFA: Looking Back And Looking Forwards…

In this episode we review our most viewed shows from 2024, and identify the key issues and themes which got the most attention. Interestingly there are clear connections and observations…

Let me know in the comments what your favorite shows were, and what you would like me to cover this coming year.

Thanks to all those who supported us last year, and I look forward to sharing daily shows through 2025.

Happy New Year!

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Household Money Worries? – You Are Not Alone!

We deep dive on the thorny question of household finances and the proportion of disposable income going to pay the rent or mortgage, using data from our core market model.

We find that conditions are quite severe in many parts of the country, but it is not uniformly spread. Which households are most under the pump in terms of these critical ratios?

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Have A Very “Squeezy” Christmas!

More households are feeling the pinch in the run up to Christmas according to our latest research and as demonstrated in the results to the end of November 2024, which we look at today.

We start with an overview of “financial stress”, defined in cash flow terms, then look at mortgage, rental, investor and overall stress across the country, as we dive into the top postcodes and consider the future scenarios for interest rates.

If you want a deep dive into a specific post code, drop it into the comments below, and I will make a subsequent show including the granular data I hold.

The full detailed set of data is available via our Patreon programme: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Investing: Nightmare Or Great Deal?

This is an edited version of a live discussion about the conundrum of property investing. Some are selling as quickly as they can, others are piling in. We look at the latest data to figure out what is going on. The key is a realistic assessment of net investment yield, which varies across locations and property types.

You can ask a question live!

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The Rental Stress Pips Are Squeaking!

Following my live show on Tuesday I had a number of requests for mapping of the Rental Stress story across the country. So in this show we look at the distribution of rental stress both in count and percentage terms, based on DFA modelling and surveys.

Live show was here: https://youtu.be/c8rTWEEw2KU

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Property Markets Caught In Higher Rate Trap As Parents Help More To Buy!

We are at a significant point in the spring auction market as the prospect of early interest rate relief for home buyers becomes more uncertain in the months ahead, even though weekly clearance rates are so far holding steady, as overall property listings rise.

But within that less expensive property is shifting faster, driven by a further rise in those buying with the help of the family bank – with money from parents, grandparents or siblings, easing the purchase path, whilst other first time buyers are clubbing together to become joint owners of a new home, despite the potential risks.

More generally it’s another symptom of the broken housing market. If you want to learn more about this, and get the latest on our modelling, join us next Tuesday for my live stream at 8pm Sydney, where you can ask a question live. You can see the latest post code level analysis and we will also look at the broader trends.

This is a time for caution, given the rising levels of uncertainty, but that said, for many jumping from the rental sector to buying their own home could be equivalent to jumping from the frying pan into the fire in the current environment.

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Never Trust The Government?

In our surveys we include a question on whether households trust the federal and state governments to do the right thing for them. And the answer is a resounding, no. The question of whether we do trust those elected officials who theoretically at least should be looking after our interests, seems to highlight that in many countries, from Australia, UK, Canada, New Zealand and America, Government is on the nose.

Perhaps this is one reason why there are attempts in train to close down free speech, as illustrated by the misinformation and disinformation bill currently on the books in the Australian parliament. See my earlier post about this MAD bill and why it must be resisted.

In our surveys we find many households struggling with rising costs and flat real incomes, an ability to get ahead, or find a place to live, and ever more pressure on family relationships as a result. In other words, many blame bad government policy for their own predicaments. They are right.

The recently released report on Government action during the COVID period cuts to the heart of the question of trust as the three-person inquiry panel slammed the approaches towards such issues as lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and school and border closures, saying they lacked transparency and compassion, and were often not evidence-based. Now let me say straight away the scope of this inquiry was deliberately hobbled to avoid key questions around vaccines, and other issues, which is in itself shameful, but even so, the COVID-19 inquiry found that heavy-handed, inconsistent and insensitive pandemic restrictions meant people were unlikely to accept such measures again.

Economic modelling presented to the inquiry found that inflation could have peaked at about 6 per cent, instead of 8 per cent in December 2022, if the federal government’s more than $300 billion of pandemic spending and Reserve Bank of Australia’s near-zero interest rate policies were less stimulatory.

So all up, we can draw three conclusions.

Too much tax payer money was thrown at the problem in a poorly targeted inflation stoking manner. This is why inflation loomed to the fore in the past few years.

Too much was through directly and indirectly at the housing market, stoking home prices and rents, and exacerbated the distortions which were already in the market. No wonder prices have accelerated relative to incomes. No wonder too the construction sector is all but wrecked, with many firms subsequently failing while construction costs rise.

And there is still a resistance to admit errors both from Government and the RBA. Those in positions of responsibility may have done their best, but it was simply not good enough.

We expect, and rightly demand more from our elected leaders. They collectively failed us and the fallout continues to this day.

The right critical observation is that trust will be hard to recover. Given recent behaviour, it may never be healed, which spells risks to democracy itself. Queue the MAD bill.

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Maxed Out: 3. Investor Stress Mapping

As we continue our series on stress mapping, we turn to investor stress and net yields, which are crushed in many areas. Which are most impacted?

See out earlier show here for the methodology: https://youtu.be/YIl4sh-WxIA

Part 1: Default Risk Mapping https://youtu.be/JSk0I7n-gXI
Part 2: Rental Stress Mapping https://youtu.be/KtzhX0YlCmo

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Maxed Out: 2. Rental Stress Mapping

This is the second in a series of posts showing our latest mapping of rental stress. For our methodology see our recent live show https://youtu.be/YIl4sh-WxIA

Part 1: Default Risk Mapping https://youtu.be/JSk0I7n-gXI

In today’s show we deep dive on the rental stress across the country. The results are not pretty.

Next time, we will look at property investor stress – the Ying to Yang of rental stress!

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