The Housing Market Sheep And Goats (Which Are You?)

Data from my surveys, as discussed this past week, along with other market data shows we have a very divided housing market, with on one side of the ledger many households under significant pressure and begin forced to sell up, while watching their property values slide, while on the other side property investors are still piling in competing with owner occupied buyers, especially at the lower end of the market and bidding prices higher. Actually of course there are many micro markets across the country, and so any headline “data” on rises or falls mask important differences. Housing isn’t just the great Australian barbecue-stopper. It’s our greatest pain point, too. All this only days after Australia’s GDP figures grew at the lowest rate in three decades, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, and as traders push out rate cut expectations well into next year.

So today I will be looking at the latest signals from the data relating to mortgage prisoners, forced sales, credit growth and investor activity, to provide context for the misleading headlines we see on the property portals.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 6. Post Codes

This is the final part in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on requested post codes from our followers.

In order we looked at 3690, 6163, 4217, 3931, 3216, 7250, 4184, 4212, 2462, 4218, 4551, 5353, 2195, 3111, 3216, 2060, 3875, 3880, 2261, 4304, 3337, 6164, 3756, 2122, 3030, 3195, 4035, and 4879.

The full 2,000 post code series is available by subscription from our Patreon channel below.

See the first part, where we describe our approach here: https://youtu.be/3oidJ_XKgAE

The second part on mortgage stress is here: https://youtu.be/6g6cb1mU2zQ

The third part on rental stress is here:
https://youtu.be/ZZ0OyEFaplM

The fourth part on investor stress is here:
https://youtu.be/JF0FuwzQSSI

The fifth part on household stress is here: https://youtu.be/bcoRoixJVR0

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 4. Investors

This is the fourth part in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on investor stress, which is rising further.

See the first part, where we describe our approach here: https://youtu.be/3oidJ_XKgAE

The second part on mortgage stress is here: https://youtu.be/6g6cb1mU2zQ

The third part on rental stress is here:
https://youtu.be/ZZ0OyEFaplM

The full 2,000 post code series is available by subscription from our Patreon channel below.

If you want details of a particular post code, drop it in the comments below, and I will endeavour to add it to a later show.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 3. Rental Stress

This is the third part in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on rental stress, which is rising further.

See the first part, where we describe our approach here: https://youtu.be/3oidJ_XKgAE

The second part on mortgage stress is here: https://youtu.be/6g6cb1mU2zQ

The full 2,000 post code series is available by subscription from our Patreon channel below.

If you want details of a particular post code, drop it in the comments below, and I will endeavour to add it to a later show.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 1. Overview

This is the first in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on financial stress, which is rising further. This episode provides an overview, subsequent episodes will dive into the details of mortgage, rental, investor and financial stress.

If you want details of a particular post code, drop it in the comments below, and I will endeavour to add it to a later show.

The full 2,000 post code series is available by subscription from our Patreon channel. https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest On Household And Post Code Financial Pressure

This is an edited version of a live discussion, as we looked at the latest data on mortgage and rental stress, and many other metrics from our models, which gives us a view of how households are really travelling in this higher for longer rate environment, and in the light of the RBA’s rate decision.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Property Buyers’ Plans Destroyed By “Higher For Longer” Rate Trends!

The combination of high prices and interest rates is seeing affordability become extremely stretched at a time when cost-of-living pressures more generally are also constraining incomes, according to a recent Westpac Survey.

In response, would-be buyers are pushing the timing of their planned purchases back – less than 10% expect to transact in the next 6mths, the lowest share across all survey waves.

The prospective flow of first home buyers is showing the biggest response to these pressures, planned purchases down materially on last year. Just 2% of those surveyed expecting to become a first time owner in the next year.

Outside of the first home buyer space the story looks to relate more to the interest rate situation. Prospective investor buyers have pared back plans for the next six months.

And sales results for this weekend confirms the slowing market, despite some properties still exceeding reserves in some places. As reported in the AFR, the prospect of interest rates staying high has spooked many buyers, making them less likely to spend above their budgets.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live HD Replay Q&A: A Deep Dive On Post Codes Feeling The Pinch

This is an edited version of a live discussion, as we look at the post code detail from our recent surveys, as the third part in our latest series.

See the basis of our analysis here: So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch? https://youtu.be/xvE-jPsGQUk

See the mapping of our data here: Mapping The Pinch: Where Households Are Hurting The Most… https://youtu.be/Y-xycboQ1j4

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Mapping The Pinch: Where Households Are Hurting The Most…

In the second part of our series on March 2024 results from our surveys, we deploy our mapping tools to display the hot spots across the country for mortgage, rental and investor stress, as well as defaults and net rental yields.

For a description of our approach, watch our earlier show here: So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch? https://youtu.be/xvE-jPsGQUk

On Tuesday at 8pm Sydney we will deep dive on the post code level analysis. DFA Live Q&A: A Deep Dive On Post Codes Feeling The Pinch https://youtube.com/live/GmSKvYYQI1k

http://www.martinnorth.com/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch?

In today’s show we look at the latest from our surveys – how many households are really under financial pressure – because there are big differences between the “official” figures and those shown in other surveys, and data points, including the rise in calls to financial help lines and hardship supports.

This is the first in a series of shows, culminating with a live show on Tuesday 9th April 2024.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/