Category: Household Survey

Property Investors Show Stronger Buying Intentions

The ABS data today showed that investor lending in January was very strong. Our weekly household surveys ask about buying intentions – a forward looking estimate based on whether they are likely to transact in the next 12  months.

We have an indication earlier in the year from our weekly tracker than perhaps investors were getting cold feet – there was talk of changes to negative gearing, lifting rates and slower home price growth. Last week the buying signals were back to normal, as investors relished in the recent strong home price growth, and Government statements that negative gearing was safe. Despite slow rental income growth it is all about capital gains.

Now here is the latest chart, with the January loan volumes also added and the latest intentions plotted. Investors are still piling into the market – expect strong auction results this weekend. Intentions are stronger than ever!

No, Housing Affordability Is Hitting Households Across ALL States

CoreLogic posted an interesting blog today, in which the redoubtable Cameron Kusher says “It is really important to note that the housing affordability challenges are largely a Sydney and Melbourne phenomena”.

Now, I have to say, that just not chime with our household finance analysis. Whilst I agree affordability issues are partly a function of home price movements, other factors are in play. We discussed the distribution of those unable to afford to enter the market recently. You can read our post here.

A detailed analysis of household finances, and expectations show the affordability issues is spread across the states. It would be a mistake to address affordability in just NSW and VIC. In fact if you do, you risk excluding more from other states. You need a national plan.

He is right though when he says:

From a political perspective, politicians do not want to see the cost of housing falling.  We are taught that deflation is undesirable and deflation in the value of the country’s most valuable asset class would have a much broader impact on the economy.  Keep in mind as well that every property that is rented is owned by someone, some are owned by Government but most rental properties are owned by private citizens.

Supply and demand side reforms will be no easy feat and will require cooperation from all levels of government.

 

Latest Greater Perth Mortgage Stress Mapping

We now look across to the west, with mortgage stress modelling across WA, and mapping in Greater Perth. Read about our approach here.

The postcode with the higher number of households in mortgage stress in WA is Merriwa 6030, a suburb of South Western, Heartlands and  about 35 kms from Perth.  The average age here is 35 years and 40.6% of households have a mortgage. Some are in severe stress here.

Next is Samson, 6163, a suburb of Perth, Southern Suburbs, about 14 kms from the CBA and the federal electorate of Fremantle.  The average age here is 45 years and 36.8% of households have a mortgage.

Third is Carey Park, 6230, a suburb of South Western, South West, WA, and about 157 kms from Perth. 28.3% of households have a mortgage.

Next is Innaloo, 6018, a suburb of Perth, Other Western Suburbs and about 10 kms from the CBD. The average age here is 35 years and 32.8% of homes are mortgages. There are a number of households in serve stress here.

Meadow Springs follows on 6210, is a suburb of South Western, Heartlands, and about 61 kms from Perth. The average age is 37 years and 39.5% of households have a mortgage. Some are in serve stress here.

Note Wembley, 6014, a suburb of Perth about 5 kms from the CBD. The average age is 34, and 31.6% of households have a mortgage, but here there are the highest number in severe stress across Greater Perth.

Here is the geo-mapping for Greater Perth. The Blue areas are the post codes with the highest number of stressed households.

Latest Greater Melbourne Mortgage Stress Mapping

We turn our attention to VIC and Greater Melbourne with the latest mortgage stress mapping. Read about our approach here.

We are looking at owner occupied loans, with data to 1st March 2017.

First here are the top twenty post codes across Victoria with the largest numbers of households in mortgage stress.

Frankston, 3199 heads the list and is suburb of Melbourne on the Mornington Peninsula about 39 kms from the CBD. More than 30% of households have a mortgage here, and the average age is 38 years old.

Next is Berwick, 3806, a suburb of Melbourne, South East and about 41 kms from the CBD. More than 52% of households have a mortgage and the average age is 35 years. Berwick has a relatively higher proportion of severely stressed households (shown by the blue bar above). These households are in more immediate danger of potential default.

Third is Ballarat East, 3350, a suburb of South Western Victoria, Ballaratt, and about 99 kms from Melbourne. More than 30% of households here have a mortgage and the average age is 38 years.

Fourth is Rowville, 3178, a suburb of Melbourne, South East and about 26 kms from Melbourne. The average age is 36 years and 54% of households have a mortgage.

Fifth is Derrimut, 3030, a suburb of Melbourne, Geelong, and 18 kms from the CBD. The average age is 29 years and more than 70% of households have a mortgage. Note again the number of severely stressed households in the district.

Finally, note Carnegie, 3163, a suburb of Melbourne, East and about 11 kms from the CBD. 28% of households have a mortgage, and the average age is 35 years, but there are more severely stressed households here, than stressed. We think this is an indication of potential relatively higher risks.

Here is a stress geo-map for the areas around Greater Melbourne. The Blue areas shows the highest stress counts.

Next time we will look at Greater Perth.

Latest Greater Brisbane Mortgage Stress Mapping

We continue our series on mortgage stress mapping by looking at our results across QLD, with a focus on Brisbane. You can read about our approach to mortgage stress modelling here.

Harristown 4350 leads the list with more than 4,000 households caught. Harriston is about 109 kms from Brisbane near Toowoomba. Around and 28% have a mortgage. The average age is 37 years old.

Next is Manunda 4870, a suburb of Cairns, and about 1391 kms from Brisbane. The average age of the people in Manunda is 38 years of age and 21% of households have a mortgage.

Third is Geebung 4034, a suburb of Brisbane about 11 kms from the CBD. The average age of the people in Geebung is 37 years of age and 38% of households have a mortgage.

Here is the mortgage stress geo-map for the area around Brisbane.  The blue areas show those post codes with higher number of stressed households.

Next time we look at Victoria.

Nearly 2M Households Locked Out Of Property Market

The latest data from our households surveys highlights the core problem facing many Australian households at this time. There are nearly 2 million households who are unable to purchase their own home.

Across the states, 33% reside in NSW, 26% in VIC, 20% in QLD and 11% in WA.

We can segment these households using our core analytics. Around 8% of these we classify as “first time buyers”, who are actively seeking and saving to purchase; 28% we identify as “want to buy”, who are saving with the hope to buy in the future; and 64% as “property inactive”, who for all intents and purposes are not actively seeking to enter the market at the moment. This inactive group continues to grow relative to the general population. All three groups are likely to be renting, living family or friends, or in other less permanent housing options.

We can also split these down across the states. From example, in NSW there are 228,000 households actively trying to get into the market, 185,000 in VIC, 158,000 in QLD and 85,000 in WA.  This provides important insights into the size of the housing problem in the country.

This is an critical additional perspective, which we need to bear in mind as we consider the 20% of existing households with a mortgage who are in some degree of mortgage stress at the moment and the 30% of households who hold investment property.

Once again, this is a big, systemic issue which needs mature and joined up policies to address the core elements that have combined to make such an intractable problem. Changing settings at the margins will not be sufficient to rectify an inter-generational emergency.

Households who do not hold property are significantly less confident finally speaking, as results from our household finance confidence security index show.

 

This Week The Investor Intention Indicator Is Down Again

We just got the results back from this week’s household surveys, and yes, we went straight to the investor intention to transact series. It is down again, now for the fourth straight week, and continues the trend we reported last week. Whilst “a swallow does not make a summer”, it could be a leading indicator of trouble ahead.

If the data is correct, the current home sales momentum is likely to slow in coming months.

The Property Imperative 8 Now Available

The latest and updated edition of our flagship report “The Property Imperative” is now available with data to end February 2017. This eighth edition updates the current state of the market by looking at the activities of different household groups using our recent primary research, and other available data. It features recent work from the DFA Blog and also contains new original research.

In this edition, we look at mortgage stress and defaults across both owner occupied and investment loans, housing affordability and the updated impact of “The Bank of Mum and Dad” on first time buyers.

We also examine the latest dynamics in the property investment sector including a review of portfolio investors, and discuss recent leading indicators which may suggest a future downturn.

The overall level of household debt continues to rise and investment loans are back in favour at the moment, though this may change. Here is the table of contents.

1       Introduction. 
2       The Property Imperative – Winners and Losers. 
2.1         An Overview of the Australian Residential Property Market.
2.2         Home Price Trends. 
2.3         The Lending Environment. 
2.4         Bank Portfolio Analysis. 
2.5         Broker Shares And Commissions. 
2.6         Market Aggregate Demand.
3       Segmentation Analysis. 
3.1         Want-to-Buys. 
3.2         First Timers.
3.3         Refinancers.
3.4         Holders. 
3.5         Up-Traders.
3.6         Down-Traders. 
3.7         Solo Investors. 
3.8         Portfolio Investors.
3.9         Super Investment Property. 
4       Mortgage Stress and Default.
4.1         State And Regional Analysis. 
4.2         Stress By Household Profile. 
4.3         Stress By Property Segments.
4.4         Stress By Household Segments. 
4.5         Post Code Level Analysis.
4.6         Top 100 Post Codes And Geo-mapping. 
5       Interest Rate Sensitivity. 
5.1         Owner Occupied Borrowers. 
5.1.1          Sensitivity by Loan Value. 
5.2         Cumulative Sensitivity. 
5.2.1          Owner Occupied Borrowers. 
5.2.2          Investment Loan Borrowers. 
5.2.3          Owner Occupied AND Investment Loan Borrowers. 
6       Housing Affordability And Hot Air.

Request the free report [61 pages] using the form below. You should get confirmation your message was sent immediately and you will receive an email with the report attached after a short delay.

Note this will NOT automatically send you our ongoing research updates, for that register here.

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Is Investor Property Appetite On The Turn?

Each week we receive updated data from our household surveys. One element in the survey looks at investor appetite – specifically whether households are intending to transact within the next 12 months. It is a leading indicator of future investment loan volumes.

However, in the past three weeks we have seen a change in intention. It has started to fall quite significantly (and actually represents the biggest move in the 10 years of the survey).

The chart plots the average intentions each week against the volume of new investor loans written each month. We see a significant downward movement in intention. This is being driven by a range of factors including concerns about future property values, falling rental returns, rising investment interest rates and most recently concerns about potential changes to the generous tax breaks which currently are enjoyed by property investors.

It is early days but it does appear investor property purchase intentions are on the turn. If this is the case, then auction clearances, investor lending momentum and property price rises may be be impacted. We will watch the next few weeks’ data with interest.

This Is Why Mortgaged Household Are Debt Exposed

When we published our sensitivity analysis on mortgaged households, which shows that more than 20% were on the edge financially speaking even at current low rates, a number of people asked why this was so, given the assumed affordability buffers and other underwriting safeguards.

Well, apart from the obvious issues of static incomes, rising costs of living, and potentially higher interest rates ahead, many mortgaged households also have other debts to repay. So today we run through some of our survey results looking at these other household debts. And it is not pretty.

To start, here is the average balances for mortgaged households, looking at their use of unsecured credit (e.g. personal loans, store cards etc) and credit cards. In the case of credit cards, we show two balances, first the current outstanding balance, and second the average revolving (hard core) debt outstanding.  Households with debts, on average and on top of the mortgage have $12,000 in unsecured loans, $11,000 in card debt, of which $10,000 is revolving.   These can cost as much to service each month as the mortgage repayment!

We can slice and dice the households, using some of our custom SQL views. For example, here are the average balances by household age bands.  Households between 40 and 59 have the larger loan and revolving balances, though interestingly, those 60-70 have the largest card balances.

As incomes rise, debt levels also rise, so some of the debt is owned by households with more ability to repay. However, remember the larger number of households are in the first three bands, where debt is still rife.

We can examine this debt by our master household segments. Once again, more affluent households have larger debts, but young growing families have on average close to $20,000 in debt, including some on revolving cards (where interest is charged at a high rate).

We can examine the data across our regions. Urban centres, including ACT, Greater Sydney and Melbourne have the highest debt levels. Many of these households also hold the largest mortgages.

Finally, it is interesting to note that from a digital behaviour standpoint, those younger households who are online most of the time and prefer to use digital channels (Natives) borrow more than Luddites (those who prefer not to go online, but the larger debts are held by households who have migrated online. These Migrants are progressively using online channels more than ever.  You can read more about our channel use inour report  The Quiet Revolution.

So, to sum up. Many households have large mortgages AND other debts, including credit cards and personal loans. This entire portfolio of debt must be considered when looking at their sensitivity to rising rates, and when comparing static incomes with rising debt repayments. Just looking at the mortgage gives only part of the full picture.

Much of this debt would not exist when the bank made their mortgage underwriting decision. That point in time view however does not necessarily still hold true. Should ongoing affordability testing be required by the regulators?