An important week for a Rant as Edwin and I pick apart the latest housing policy announcements, and the broader economic questions surrounding the Trump Tariff games. What will property do as a result?
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
I caught up with Robbie Barwick Senate Candidate for VIC and Research Director for The Australian Citizens Party, to discuss Trump, Tariffs, China and importantly what Australia needs to thrive and survive in this uncertain international environment.
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.
The 2nd of April “T” day will go down in infamy, as global markets have since lost around $6 trillion of value as the global world trade order was trashed. The U.S. now accounts for 70% of the global equity market, up from 40% during the Global Financial Crisis. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index fell to 4 out of 100, falling deeper into ‘extreme fear’ territory.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the former hedge fund manager who the market hoped would be the voice of reason in President Donald Trump’s second administration, did an interview with Tucker Carlson on Friday night amid more carnage on Wall Street. And remarkably, he claimed it had nothing to do with the tariff war launched by his boss.
Things got so wild that Warren Buffett’s team had to make a public statement after Trump shared a video on social media that suggested Buffett endorsed Trump’s apparent plan to send the share market down 20 per cent on purpose to ultimately revitalise the US economy.
While the 10% level of tariffs are now in place, and the higher levels, calculated on the back of an envelope it seems, following, it is not clear whether they are here to stay, a negotiating point of departure, or an attempt to drive yields lower, thus easing the US deficit.
Jerome Powell on Friday said the FED expects US grow to fall, and inflation to rise which sounds like stagflation to me while acknowledge the tariffs were larger than expected.
China responded with a matching 34% on many US good, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on cars to the US, while other countries are circling the wagons trying to maintain the existing world order, even as the new world order is emerging. This is not going to abate anytime time soon, and there are consequences for households, especially US households actually, businesses and countries. “We’re in the Wild West of a trade war right now,” said Mariam Adams, managing director at UBS Wealth Management.
Trump likened the process to a surgical operation on a patient, stating, “It was an operation like when a patient gets operated on, and it’s a big thing. I said this would exactly be the way it is.” He further predicted that the markets, stocks, and the country will experience a boom.
What is clear so far is that US big firms who have invested in global supply chains, to source cheaply and mark-up massively to sell branded good like Nike and Apple, are right in the front line. Future cash-flows are at risk, so stock valuations are down, with Apple down 25% year to date and Nvidia down 29%.
This market insecurity is set to continue, as the tariff game is played, this is a world class science experiment, driven by Trump and his team, with significant and long lasting collateral damage well beyond the US. As I discussed in my recent post, the basis of the calculations are largely political, and the potential implications enormous. Many will need to reevaluate the potential future earnings from stock, and so value, stocks which generally were priced to perfection, and which are still some way from fundamental value. So, volatility and more falls need to be expected. Duck and cover as stagflation enters centre stage!
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It seems that markets are beginning to read the room, as the unwinding of the so-called rules based order – which really was based on a Pax Americana Hegemony, is falling apart. After the 25% auto imports tariffs were announced this week, the so called “Liberation Day”, on April 2, when Trump said he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs to end the days of other nations ripping off the US, or “T “ day is looking to be the next milestone.
No surprise then that safe-haven gold hit a fresh record high on Friday with the futures at $3126 and up more than 18% this year, even as the MSCI index of global shares fell, down 1.58%, and down year to date too, while the STOXX 600 European index fell 0.77% on Friday but is still up 6.79% this year. The SP500 was down 1.97% on Friday erasing -$1 TRILLION of market cap and posted its largest daily decline since March 10th and it’s down 5.11% year to date while the ASX 200 was up 0.16% as the election was announced, but down 2.17% so far this year, all weighed down by worries over a looming trade war sparked by tariff decisions from U.S. President Donald Trump.
With the price of BTC down over 4% this week from weekly highs of $89,000 to $83,654, it really has not value anchor so this may not be the end of the pain for holders of Bitcoin and, of course, other crypto assets, as when the leader falls, others follow.
But sometimes, it only takes one number to shift sentiment on the market, and this time, that number came from the latest inflation report. The price of Bitcoin has now lost a crucial technical support level – the 200-day moving average – after the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data was released, adding more weight to an already uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. For Bitcoin, which tends to struggle in tight liquidity conditions, the break below the 200-day moving average could signal further downside if macro pressures persist. What comes next? That depends on whether inflation slows or if markets have, once again, been too eager to price in victory too soon.
This is an edited version of a live discussion about finance and property, as we look at the latest data and ask where has Australian gone wrong? Prices relative to income are off the charts, property listings are rising, and despite the hopium of prices rises off the back of a single rate cut, the truth is rather different.
So tonight, as the budget speech is rolled out, we will take questions live.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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This the latest in our occasional “Rabbit Hole” series, with my friend George, where we test the bounds of reality, from politics to the financial system. This time roles are reversed, as I am a guest on my own show!
Thus, we explore some of the philosophical foundations which under pin current events, and in the light of the upcoming election ask how we should think about these issues?
Thanks to George for leading the show, and also editing content.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is my edit of our monthly economic update recorded with Nuggets News, where we parse the latest news and data and try to figure what is really going on.
This time we focus on the fall out from the trade wars, and Australia’s economic prospects ahead of the upcoming budget and election.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This week Edwin Almeida our property insider, and I look at the rising phenomenon of “dummy bidding” at auctions, an illegal practice which is contaminating more auctions.
We also discuss the real story about the supply of quality property in the Sydney market, and the basic economics of construction. And Edwin suggests a way to save some money in the light of the new “dual flush” requirement which property investors might be confronted with.
Just another day in “property paradise”!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to whiplash in response to more news from the While House about the so call Strategic crypto reserve. Trump had vowed to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve on the campaign trail, one of many crypto-related promises that helped fuel a surge in prices up until the day of his inauguration. Trump’s campaign pledge to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve was one of many promises designed to appeal to an industry that has emerged as source of significant political donations.
On March 6th President Donald Trump has signed the long-awaited order creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and an additional stockpile of other digital assets. The order, was shared initially as a post on X by White House crypto czar David Sacks, indicated that the government wouldn’t use taxpayer money to fund a strategic reserve of the largest digital asset.
“The Reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. This means it will not cost taxpayers a dime.”
The government holds about 200,000 Bitcoins seized over the past 15 years. That’s worth $17.5bn at today’s prices, with Trump’s order also calling for an audit of the government’s crypto holdings. The Department of Justice- which holds all the government’s seized Bitcoin- was seen selling the token intermittently on the open market in recent years.
This was a disappointment to many who had taken positions ahead of the announcement on the assumption that the Treasury would purchase additional crypto holdings. With this latest development, these positions are being unwound. While the creation of the Bitcoin-specific reserve fulfills a promise Trump made on the campaign trail, the details fell short of industry expectations.
To me this looks more like lipstick on a pig than a big strategic shift. But this was not what the pro-crypto community had been banking on.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
