Economics and Banking – Page 469 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

If The Worm Turns, What Happens To Household Mortgage Stress?

The wind appears to be changing. First the new head of APRA warned at a CEDA event they were watching the mortgage lending of the banks closely, “The Australian banking system clearly has a concentration of risk in housing. If anything was to go wrong in the housing market it would have very severe impact on the viability and health of the banking system, so it’s naturally something we watch very carefully.” Meantime in London, Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson spoke to Chatham House where he mused on the low interest rate strategies being adopted by many countries, the limits of monetary policy and the potential for macroprudential measures. Locally, whilst fixed rate mortgages are being offered at record lows below 5%, the consensus appears to be shifting towards a lift in rates in Australia, partly as a result of rising inflation, although timing is not certain. So, what is the potential impact of a rate rise on Australian mortgage holders, bearing in mind that the average loan to income is stretched? How far would rates rise? Where would the pain be felt most?

To answer these questions, we have examined interest rate trends, and incorporated a rising rate scenario into our mortgage stress models. First, let’s look at rate trends. This is a plot of the RBA target rate since 1990. If we take a linear average, we see that currently we are well below the “neutral” range. An RBA rate of 4-4.5% would on this basis be a neutral rate. This is the first assumption I have made in my stress modelling.

Then we have to estimate the spread above the target rate the variable rate mortgage will be coming in at. We still have most households on a floating rate, although 15% are locking in fixed at the moment. This plot shows the target cash rate, against the spread between a CMT deposit account and a standard variable mortgage. Lets assume an average uplift of 300 basis points. That would put the mortgage rate at about 7%.

Now, we will assume rates will be lifted to this level in the next 12-15 months. We will also assume that income rises at the level it has in the past 2 years, and that unemployment stays at 6% (to isolate the effect of the rate movement). We then calculate for the 26,000 households in our survey the impact on their income/expenditure if their mortgages do rise. The impact is of course immediate, unless households are on a fixed loan. This is incorporated in the modelling. Now, we calculate the proportion of households which will be in mortgage stress in 18 months time (see the definitions we use here). Lets take Sydney as an example. This geo-mapping shows where the main movements are in terms of increases in mortgage stress. The blue postcodes are worst hit. Many of these households are in the western suburbs, and are typically younger, and on lower incomes. Many are first time buyers.

Mortgage stress does not mean an immediate crisis, but households hunker down short term, and it is a warning of trouble ahead because many households who get into difficulty are ultimately forced to sell. My read on this modelling is that if rates rise, the impact on the property market could be quite profound. This in turn does indeed lay potential bear traps for the banks, because of their high leverage into property. There is a strong case to lift the currently relatively low capital rules for the big four, to provide a buttress against rising rates, and to avoid financial stability issues. The recent FSI interim report touched on this. If rates do indeed start to rise, we will need to be alert to the issues. Actually, the regulators should have been acting sooner, as the genie is now out of the bottle. We will publish data on this scenario for other states another day.

Savers Quest For Yield

The CPI data which came out from the RBA yesterday registered 3%. This was very bad news for households with savings in deposit accounts at the banks, because ever more are finding that returns after tax are well below CPI. This is part of a worrying trend for many, and is prompting them to seek out alternative and possibly higher risk saving vehicles. Today we examine this issue in the light of latest data from our household surveys.

First, here are some benchmark savings rates mapped to the CPI and RBA benchmark rate. Many savings rates are now below the CPI, even before we consider the tax implications, as of course income from deposits is taxable. More and more households will see their savings eroded in real terms. It may not be as bad as in the UK, where thanks to even lower base rates, central bank intervention and other factors, deposit rates are around 1% and inflation above 3%, but its getting all too familiar.

The RBA has observed in its monthly updates that investors are seeking higher risk, higher return alternatives to bank deposits. Our surveys illustrate this nicely. We have been asking savings households about their intentions each month. Now, up to 80% of households with savings of more than $250k are actively seeking alternatives. It is lower for smaller balances, because typically these need to be readily available in case of emergencies. But even here, 35% are reconsidering their options.

We also split the analysis between those saving within SMSF and those outside, as SMSF have advantaged tax treatment we expected these savers to be less concerned, but not so. We found that more of those saving via a SMSF were more actively seeking alternatives than those saving in their own names. This is a clue to why SMSF’s are investing direct in property.

For households looking beyond bank deposits, it is worth highlighting they are moving away from secure savings options, because of course the government guarantee on deposits remains at $250,000 per customer per institution without charge. So if households start looking for other options, they might consider shares (though the market is close to its highs), property (will prices rise further?) or other wealth management products, where fees are not well disclosed, advisors may not give best advice, and returns are uncertain. There are certainly no simple alternatives. That in turn allows the banks to let their deposit rates slip, source funding cheaper from overseas wholesale markets, and by maintaining loan deposit rates, bolster their profits. We are mandated to save, yet the fact is, its hard to find solutions which provide returns above inflation at reasonable risk. Caveat Emptor!

CPI 3% Through Year To June 2014 – ABS

The ABS published the Consumer Price Index for the quarter to June 2014 today. The CPI rose 3.0% through the year to the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 2.9% through the year to the March quarter 2014. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 0.6% in the March quarter 2014.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for medical and hospital services (+4.6%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%) and tobacco (+3.1%). These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%), automotive fuel (-2.7%) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.6%).

This is at the top end of the RBA target, and highlights the fact they continue to have to balance, inflation, interest rates and other factors. They are still caught in the middle. Inflation is being assisted by the higher dollar exchange rate.

The Loan To Income Mess

Some time back we reported on the results of our household surveys, looking especially at the loan to income (LTI) data. This was prompted by the Bank of England’s move to limit banks abilities there to lend higher LTI loans. At the time we showed that at an aggregate level, LTI’s in Australia were higher than in the UK, yet despite this, there was no evidence of any local move to curb higher LTI borrowings, other than vague warnings from the regulators more recently. There is little relevant data published by the regulators on this important metric.

Today we delve into to the LTI data series in more detail. Interestingly the control of LTI’s was the preferred macroprudential tool of choice by BIS and others. The UK recommendation was to ensure that mortgage lenders do not extend more than 15% of their total number of new residential mortgages at Loan to Income ratios at or greater than 4.5 times.

In our surveys we ask about a households mortgage loan, and its total gross income. From this we can derive an LTI ratio.

So, to recap. this is the current picture of LTI, averaged across post codes for all household segments, and all states. There is a peak around 4.5 times, and a second peak above 6 times.

LTIAllStates Now, we can break the data out by state, and household segment, using the DFA survey data. The state specific data for NSW largely mirrors the national average.

LTINSW However, looking at TAS, we see some interesting variations. There the LTI’s are higher, reflecting lower incomes relative to somewhat lower house prices. We have adjusted the sample to take account of the smaller populations.

WA again shows variation, with a significant spread of higher LTI loans than the average.

LTIWA QLD shows greater concentration at lower LTI’s but then a second smaller peak at the upper end.

LTIQLD SA has quite a spike around 4.5 times, and a second peak around 6.5, again reflecting lower income levels in that state.

LTISA If we then start to look at segments, we find that affluent group, Exclusive Professionals, has a consistently lower LTI, compared with…

… Battlers …

… And the Young Growing Families. Many of the First Time Buyers are in this segment. Effective LTI’s above 7 times are significantly extended.

I won’t go through all the other segments now, but the analysis suggests to me that the LTI metric is significant, and a good leading indicator of risks in the system. Remember interest rates are at rock bottom at the moment, so households can keep their heads above water. But as we know rates may rise, and unforeseen events may change individual circumstances. Households with such high LTI’s have very little wriggle room. As the interim FSI report said “Since the Wallis Inquiry, the increase in housing debt and banks’ more concentrated exposure to mortgages mean that housing has become a significant source of systemic risk”. “Higher household indebtedness and the greater proportion of mortgages on bank balance sheets mean that an extreme event in the housing market would have significant implications for financial stability and economic growth”.

The incredible morphing FOFA beast

I wrote a piece, published today for the ABC News – The Drum, arguing that far from reducing the cost of financial advice and improving access, the PUP-approved FOFA changes will favour the big banks and allow planners to provide poor advice. It was based on my earlier and more details post published here, but updated to take account of latest developments.

The Payments Revolution Around The Corner

The FSI Interim report, released earlier in the week, includes a section on how technology may disrupt payments, a critical domain in financial services.

The report says ” Advances in technology have reduced traditional barriers to market entry in payments, such as the need to construct a dedicated network. New entrants can leverage high levels of internet connectivity, penetration of smart devices and pre-existing networks to connect users to payments services more easily and cheaply than incumbents. The payment hub, being developed by eftpos Payments Australia Limited, and the New Payments Platform (NPP), an industry project being developed as a result of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) strategic innovation review, may further reduce barriers to entry and drive competition. Incumbents in the Australian payments industry are facing competitive challenges from new market entrants, such as PayPal, POLi, PayMate and Stripe. Closed-loop pre-paid systems operated by companies outside the financial sector, such as Apple, Skype and Starbucks, are holding growing amounts of customers’ funds. Apple has also recently signalled its interest in mobile payments more broadly and recently developed fingerprint biometric authentication for its phones. Advances in cryptography and computer processing power have facilitated the development of virtual or crypto-currencies.

Today we look at the potential convergence of new payment mechanism, overlaid on smart devices, and in the context of customer centric thinking. Consider this, the ubiquitous smart mobile device is essentially a mobile wallet plus a payment instrument, a centre of interaction and potentially can provide secure identification.

You walk down a high street and receive a personalised messages from a retailer, based on your profile, as you pass. The offer is triggered by your proximity to the store. It is a deep discount on that item you were goggling last night, available for just 10 minutes. You decide to accept the offer, pay direct from your phone using your secure wallet, and the deal is done. Rather than collect it, you choose to have it delivered to your home, later in the day. No human interaction, simply a combination of technologies to fundamentally change the customer experience.

Consider the disruptive impact of this, on the retail trade, the payments system, and human behaviour.

Is this far fetched? Not at all. For example, Apple has been working on iBeacon, which is “a new technology that extends Location Services in iOS. Your iOS device can alert apps when you approach or leave a location with an iBeacon. In addition to monitoring location, an app can estimate your proximity to an iBeacon (for example, a display or checkout counter in a retail store). Instead of using latitude and longitude to define the location, iBeacon uses a Bluetooth low energy signal, which iOS devices detect”. It is still early, but Apple has been testing it since December last year in its US retail stores. In the UK, Virgin Atlantic is also conducting trial of iBeacon at Heathrow airport, so that passengers heading towards the security checkpoint will find their phone automatically pulling up their mobile boarding pass ready for inspection. Paypay is experimenting with its own version of beacon – “hands Free shopping – the future in here”, they say.

In May, St. George revealed that is trialling iBeacon at three Sydney branches. When a customer walks into the bank, the iBeacon senses the person’s entrance and sends a welcome message and personalised information directly to the iPhone or iPad, according to Computerworld. George Frazis, CEO of St. George Banking Group, said in a statement the launch of the new technology forms part of an increased focus on delivering an innovative and customer-centric in-branch experience. “The future of business will be in the ability to anticipate customer’s needs, understand what matters to them and act on that knowledge to surprise and delight them,” he said. “Our investment in iBeacon will help us to achieve that — and it has the potential to dramatically change the service experience in Australian banking.”

The question is, what is the right regulatory settings to, on one hand allow innovations like this to flourish, whilst on the other hand, ensure that adequate protections are in place. That is the question posed, but not yet answered in the FSI interim report.

“Some submissions argue that firms performing similar functions should be regulated in the same way. This position is often made by large incumbent players concerned about the capacity of new players to operate around the edge of the regulatory perimeter. Failure to apply equivalent regulation may result in an uneven playing field and regulatory arbitrage. It may also incentivise those within the current regulatory perimeter to lower their own standards of compliance to compete. However, applying the full weight of prudential or conduct regulation to small players and new start-ups, regardless of the materiality of the risk they represent, may stifle valuable innovation unnecessarily.”

What is clear to me, based on our survey of households and their use of mobile devices, there is potentially a revolution round the corner, which will disrupt traditional payment mechanisms, retail behaviour and customer expectations. Actually many people are ahead of many of the incumbents, and are expecting to do ever more with their ubiquitous mobile devices. The real power is wedding the multiple technologies contained in the device, to create a seamless consumer experience, with smart analytics and segment data. The marketeers dream of one to one targetting is here. Unless people to select to opt out – if they can find the right tab. That may not be easy.