CPI 3% Through Year To June 2014 – ABS

The ABS published the Consumer Price Index for the quarter to June 2014 today. The CPI rose 3.0% through the year to the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 2.9% through the year to the March quarter 2014. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 0.6% in the March quarter 2014.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for medical and hospital services (+4.6%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%) and tobacco (+3.1%). These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%), automotive fuel (-2.7%) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.6%).

CPIJuneThis is at the top end of the RBA target, and highlights the fact they continue to have to balance, inflation, interest rates and other factors. They are still caught in the middle. Inflation is being assisted by the higher dollar exchange rate.

 

 

Perth Loan To Income Data By Post Code

Today we continue our series on Loan To Income mapping, based on the results from our household surveys. Looking at the data from the west, we see some interesting differences between post codes. We see higher LTI’s in some of the newer suburbs.

PerthLTIYou can compare this with the WA mortgage stress data here. One again we see a correlation between mortgage stress and high LTI ratios.

The highest LTI post codes in WA are:

HIghestLTIPerthThe lowest LTI post codes in WA are:

LowesttLTIPerth

Brisbane Loan To Income By Post Code

We continue our series on Loan To Income ratios, using data from our households survey with a look at Brisbane. We start with a geomapping of LTIs across the region. The blue areas have the highest ratios.

BrisbaneLTIHere is a list of the highest areas across QLD:

HighestLTI-BrisbaneHere is a list of the lowest areas across QLD:

LowestLTIBrisbane

There is a strong correlation between high LTI and mortgage stress. Details of mortgage stress in Brisbane are here.

You can read our earlier posts about LTI here. This includes similar data on Melbourne, cross state analysis, and comparisons with the UK. We will published additional state data later.

Melbourne Loan To Income Data By Post Code

Continuing our series on Loan To Income (LTI) ratios, using our household survey data, today we focus our attention on Melbourne. As previously discussed Loan To Income is a relevant measure when considering how stretched households may be with regards to their mortgage loans. So first we present the results using our geomapping analysis. The shades of blue show the higher average ratios, which we see predominately to the north and east of Melbourne.

MelbourneLTIYou can compare this mapping with the mortgage stress analysis for Melbourne, as there are some significant correlations.

More specifically, the highest LTI ratios are found in the following post codes:

HighestLTI-MelbourneIn contrast the lowest LTI ratios are found in these post codes:

LowestLTIMelbourneWe have already summarised the situation in Sydney, when we first discussed the data in the context of the recent UK initiatives to curb high LTI loans. We will present detailed data for other states later.

The Loan To Income Mess

Some time back we reported on the results of our household surveys, looking especially at the loan to income (LTI) data. This was prompted by the Bank of England’s move to limit banks abilities there to lend higher LTI loans. At the time we showed that at an aggregate level, LTI’s in Australia were higher than in the UK, yet despite this, there was no evidence of any local move to curb higher LTI borrowings, other than vague warnings from the regulators more recently. There is little relevant data published by the regulators on this important metric.

Today we delve into to the LTI data series in more detail.  Interestingly the control of LTI’s was the preferred macroprudential tool of choice by BIS and others. The UK recommendation was to ensure that mortgage lenders do not extend more than 15% of their total number of new residential mortgages at Loan to Income ratios at or greater than 4.5 times.

In our surveys we ask about a households mortgage loan, and its total gross income. From this we can derive an LTI ratio.

So, to recap. this is the current picture of LTI, averaged across post codes for all household segments, and all states. There is a peak around 4.5 times, and a second peak above 6 times.

LTIAllStatesNow, we can break the data out by state, and household segment, using the DFA survey data. The state specific data for NSW largely mirrors the national average.

LTINSWHowever, looking at TAS, we see some interesting variations. There the LTI’s are higher, reflecting lower incomes relative to somewhat lower house prices. We have adjusted the sample to take account of the smaller populations.

LTITASWA again shows variation, with a significant spread of higher LTI loans than the average.

LTIWAQLD shows greater concentration at lower LTI’s but then a second smaller peak at the upper end.

LTIQLDSA has quite a spike around 4.5 times, and a second peak around 6.5, again reflecting lower income levels in that state.

LTISAIf we then start to look at segments, we find that affluent group, Exclusive Professionals, has a consistently lower LTI, compared with…

LTIAffluent… Battlers …

LTIBattlers… And the Young Growing Families. Many of the First Time Buyers are in this segment. Effective LTI’s above 7 times are significantly extended.

LTIYoung I won’t go through all the other segments now, but the analysis suggests to me that the LTI metric is significant, and a good leading indicator of risks in the system. Remember interest rates are at rock bottom at the moment, so households can keep their heads above water. But as we know rates may rise, and unforeseen events may change individual circumstances.   Households with such high LTI’s have very little wriggle room.  As the interim FSI report said “Since the Wallis Inquiry, the increase in housing debt and banks’ more concentrated exposure to mortgages mean that housing has become a significant source of systemic risk”. “Higher household indebtedness and the greater proportion of mortgages on bank balance sheets mean that an extreme event in the housing market would have significant implications for financial stability and economic growth”.

 

The incredible morphing FOFA beast

I wrote a piece, published today for the ABC News – The Drum, arguing that far from reducing the cost of financial advice and improving access, the PUP-approved FOFA changes will favour the big banks and allow planners to provide poor advice. It was based on my earlier and more details post published here, but updated to take account of latest developments.

The Payments Revolution Around The Corner

The FSI Interim report, released earlier in the week, includes a section on how technology may disrupt payments, a critical domain in financial services.

The report says ” Advances in technology have reduced traditional barriers to market entry in payments, such as the need to construct a dedicated network. New entrants can leverage high levels of internet connectivity, penetration of smart devices and pre-existing networks to connect users to payments services more easily and cheaply than incumbents. The payment hub, being developed by eftpos Payments Australia Limited, and the New Payments Platform (NPP), an industry project being developed as a result of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) strategic innovation review, may further reduce barriers to entry and drive competition. Incumbents in the Australian payments industry are facing competitive challenges from new market entrants, such as PayPal, POLi, PayMate and Stripe. Closed-loop pre-paid systems operated by companies outside the financial sector, such as Apple, Skype and Starbucks, are holding growing amounts of customers’ funds. Apple has also recently signalled its interest in mobile payments more broadly and recently developed fingerprint biometric authentication for its phones. Advances in cryptography and computer processing power have facilitated the development of virtual or crypto-currencies.

Today we look at the potential convergence of new payment mechanism, overlaid on smart devices, and in the context of customer centric thinking. Consider this, the ubiquitous smart mobile device is essentially a mobile wallet plus a payment instrument, a centre of interaction and potentially can provide secure identification.

You walk down a high street and receive a personalised messages from a retailer, based on your profile, as you pass. The offer is triggered by your proximity to the store. It is a deep discount on that item you were goggling last night, available for just 10 minutes. You decide to accept the offer, pay direct from your phone using your secure wallet, and the deal is done. Rather than collect it, you choose to have it delivered to your home, later in the day. No human interaction, simply a combination of technologies to fundamentally change the customer experience.

Consider the disruptive impact of this, on the retail trade, the payments system, and human behaviour.

Is this far fetched? Not at all. For example, Apple has been working on iBeacon, which is “a new technology that extends Location Services in iOS. Your iOS device can alert apps when you approach or leave a location with an iBeacon. In addition to monitoring location, an app can estimate your proximity to an iBeacon (for example, a display or checkout counter in a retail store). Instead of using latitude and longitude to define the location, iBeacon uses a Bluetooth low energy signal, which iOS devices detect”. It is still early, but Apple has been testing it since December last year in its US retail stores. In the UK, Virgin Atlantic is also conducting trial of iBeacon at Heathrow airport, so that passengers heading towards the security checkpoint will find their phone automatically pulling up their mobile boarding pass ready for inspection. Paypay is experimenting with its own version of beacon – “hands Free shopping – the future in here”, they say.

In May, St. George revealed that is trialling iBeacon at three Sydney branches. When a customer walks into the bank, the iBeacon senses the person’s entrance and sends a welcome message and personalised information directly to the iPhone or iPad, according to Computerworld.  George Frazis, CEO of St. George Banking Group, said in a statement the launch of the new technology forms part of an increased focus on delivering an innovative and customer-centric in-branch experience. “The future of business will be in the ability to anticipate customer’s needs, understand what matters to them and act on that knowledge to surprise and delight them,” he said. “Our investment in iBeacon will help us to achieve that — and it has the potential to dramatically change the service experience in Australian banking.”

The question is, what is the right regulatory settings to, on one hand allow innovations like this to flourish, whilst on the other hand, ensure that adequate protections are in place. That is the question posed, but not yet answered in the FSI interim report.

“Some submissions argue that firms performing similar functions should be regulated in the same way. This position is often made by large incumbent players concerned about the capacity of new players to operate around the edge of the regulatory perimeter. Failure to apply equivalent regulation may result in an uneven playing field and regulatory arbitrage. It may also incentivise those within the current regulatory perimeter to lower their own standards of compliance to compete. However, applying the full weight of prudential or conduct regulation to small players and new start-ups, regardless of the materiality of the risk they represent, may stifle valuable innovation unnecessarily.”

What is clear to me, based on our survey of households and their use of mobile devices, there is potentially a revolution round the corner, which will disrupt traditional payment  mechanisms, retail behaviour and customer expectations. Actually many people are ahead of many of the incumbents, and are expecting to do ever more with their ubiquitous mobile devices.  The real power is wedding the multiple technologies contained in the device, to create a seamless consumer experience, with smart analytics and segment data. The marketeers dream of one to one targetting is here. Unless people to select to opt out – if they can find the right tab. That may not be easy.

Reflections On The FSI Interim Report – Part 1

Having summarised the main observations from the 460 page Financial System Inquiry (FSI) interim report yesterday, today we start to delve more deeply into some of most important issues raised. In a number of areas, we believe the work to date could be sharpened.
Lender’s Mortgage Insurance. The report rightly highlights that for banks with advanced capital models, there is now no benefit to underwriting risks to an LMI entity, as they already receive a 20% weighting, whether or not they are LMI insured. Therefore, LMI may become sidelined, and be used by smaller banks only, reducing volumes and increasing underlying portfolio risks.
However, whilst the report recognises that about 25% of new loans are underwritten by LMI, and the borrower pays, it does not reflect on the fact that the insurance is not portable, so consumers forfeit the premium they pay if they move later; that consumers are confused by the cover provided (protects the banks, not the household) and LMI encourages higher LVR lending. We think the role of LMI should be considered more broadly.
Industry Concentration. The report comments “Some submissions argue that the increasing concentration and integration of the major banks is harming competition. They submit the major banks can cross-subsidise products to drive out competitors in some markets. Submissions also argue that the major banks’ market power has led to oligopolistic competition and higher prices for consumers. The major banks have market power across a range of markets. However, it is not clear they are abusing this power. The ACCC has taken relatively little action against the major banks in recent years. The Inquiry would welcome views on the level and exercise of market power across the various markets in which the major banks operate.”
The major banks have become financial services conglomerates, extending their reach across retail, business and commercial banks, as well as wealth management, wealth management platforms and insurance. In addition, they have become more vertically integrated, with the accumulation of mortgage brokers, financial planners and other advisors businesses, and are extending services into online channels as well as branch networks. There are important implications, first consumers often find the brand they transact with does not clearly indicate its relationship with the parent bank. Second, as players control more of the value chain there is more opportunity for price control and reduced competition. For example, a mortgage broker working for one of the large players may recommend an in-house mortgage, so long as it is not unsuitable.
The report says “Vertical integration of mortgage broking may create conflicts of interest, which could hamper competition. Mortgage brokers can improve competition by enabling smaller players to access a broader range of consumers than their standard distribution networks would allow. However, vertical integration may have the potential to distort the way in which mortgage brokers direct borrowers to lenders. The extent of this issue is not clear. The Inquiry welcomes views on this issue.”
More broadly there is a case for greater transparency in the proportion of industry segments which players occupy. No consolidated data is provided by the regulators, across business streams. In addition, ACCC tends to look at specific transactions, not necessarily setting them in the broader cross segment context. We need an overall industry concentration metric, and regular reporting.
The Implications of Four Pillars. The report noted that “The ‘four pillars’ policy, which prevents mergers between the big four banks, has been in place, with some modifications, since 1990. Allowing a merger between the large banks would likely reduce competition, and this may offset any advantages that flow from larger scale. No submissions supported removing this policy.”
“The Inquiry views this as appropriate and does not plan to recommend changes. The banking sector is already concentrated; further significant concentration has the potential to limit competitive pressure in the market and reduce the choices available to Australian individuals and firms. Although general competition law may prevent a merger between the major banks, the Inquiry sees merit in retaining the four pillars policy.”
Now, I agree that further consolidation in the industry amongst the major banks should be resisted, however, the unintended consequence of this policy is that the banks can complete quite happily on the basis of inefficient processes and systems. This in turn flows on to higher fees and charges. So, with competition dampened by four pillars, what mechanisms should be established to ensure that Australia Inc. does not pay more than it should for banking and financial services products? At very least, we need an objective cost benchmark, against players in analogous markets overseas, to ensure that the four pillars does not artificially support higher margins and fees.
Innovation in Financial Services. The report recognises that innovation, often enabled by new technology is significant and important. “Government and regulators face challenges from the expected pace of change in technological developments. By its nature, regulation lags market developments. Consequently, Government and regulators need effective mechanisms for monitoring emerging trends, a flexible approach, and the ability to adapt and design regulation in a changing environment. Where new, technology-enabled business models, products and delivery mechanisms emerge, regulators need to consider whether and how to regulate such developments. They may also need to be flexible in how they apply existing frameworks.”
The latency between developing new business models, and regulation needs to be reduced. For example, Peer-To-Peer lending, is now on ASIC’s radar, and regulatory mechanisms are being developed.
So the report is considering “Developing a comprehensive Government strategy, in consultation with industry, to ensure the regulatory framework supports technological innovation, while managing risks.” One option mooted is to “Establish a central mechanism or body for monitoring and advising Government on technology and innovation. Consider, for example, a public–private sector collaborative body or changing the mandate of an existing body to include technology and innovation”.
Our recent experience is that the currently constituted bodies are populated predominantly with people who live within the current mode of operation in financial services. There is the need to break the mould, and inject innovation into the heart of the financial services environment. This would indeed require a different model of engagement. In addition, the pace of change, as individuals adopt new devices, and smart mobile becomes the norm, this is important, and urgent.
Next time, we will look at some of the other important area.

July RBA Minutes Flags Property Slow Down

In the minutes for the July Reserve Bank Board Meeting, released today, there are interesting comments on the property sector. They said “Dwelling investment increased noticeably in the March quarter and, over the six months to March, was running at close to the fastest pace seen in around a decade. Residential building approvals had declined somewhat in recent months, but they remained at relatively high levels and both work yet to be done and loan approvals for new dwellings pointed to further strong growth in dwelling investment in coming quarters. At the same time, there had been signs of a tempering in conditions in the established housing market. Members observed that, looking through the monthly volatility, housing price inflation had slowed over recent months, auction clearance rates had fallen from the high levels seen late last year, and loan approvals had been little changed over the past six months.”

This is consistent with our view that momentum in the property market is changing.

Coles Raises Its Banking Game

As reported in Fairfax outlets today, Coles has announced plans to offer personal loans by teaming up with GE Capital and will split the cost 50/50. The new service planned is planned for launch mid-2015. It will need regulatory approval, but Coles will not need a banking licence.   400,000 Coles MasterCard customer accounts form part of the venture which is targetting a lending book of $800 million in its first year. Coles already announced plans to launch its “mobile wallet” using a credit card chip embedded in a sticker that can be applied to the case of a smart phone. The sticker also contains a barcode linking purchases to flybuys rewards. A smartphone application will provide assess to transaction data and a flybuys statement.