APRA Reports ADI Housing Lending Is Up In May To $1.25 trillion

Alongside the RBA data, APRA released the latest monthly banking statistics for May, covering the Authorised Deposit Institutions (=Banks). Total housing loans was reported at $1.25 trillion, up from $1.245 trillion in April. The RBA number, which we reported already, was $1.36 trillion, the difference is the non-bank sector, at around $110 billion, around the same as last month.

Looking at the detail in the APRA data, we look first at housing lending. The big four maintain their market leading positions, with CBA the largest home loan lender.

ADIMay2014HousingLooking at the relative share of owner occupied to investment home loan lending, whilst some of the smaller players lend a greater proportion, Westpac is slightly behind Bank of Queensland, but the largest lender with the greatest proportion of investment loans. Nab has the lowest share of investment loans amongst the four majors.

ADIMay2014HousingRatioTurning to Securitisation, Members Equity leads out, with Bendigo, Westpac and AMP following.

ADIMay2014SecuritisationLooking at Credit Cards, CBA is in first place, with Citigroup in fifth.

ADIMay2014CreditCardsIn the business bank area, National Australia Bank is the largest business bank, with CBA following. The bulk of the lending is to the non financial corporation sectors.

ADIMay2014BusinessFinally here is a snapshot of total lending, showing that CBA is the largest lender.

ADIMay2014AllOn the deposit side of the equation, CBA also leads the share of total deposits.

ADIMay2014DepositsLooking specifically at household deposits, CBA leads the banks, with nab in fourth place, behind ANZ.

ADIMay2014Household-Deposits

Housing Lending Up, Again, in May – RBA

The RBA released their financial aggregates for May 2014 today. Housing lending now totals $1.36 trillion, up by $7.2 billion, a growth rate of 0.5% in the month, and 6.2% in the past 12 months. Investment lending grew at 0.8% in May, whilst owner occupied loans grew at 0.4%.

RBAMay2014HousingTypeInvestment lending is growing faster, at 8.3% compared with 5.2% for owner occupation over 12 months. These are all seasonally adjusted numbers.

RBAMay2014HousingTrendPersonal credit fell again, by 0.3% in the month, giving an annual rate of 0.3%, and business lending grew 0.2%, giving and annual rate of 2.7%. So, the focus on lending for housing continues.

Australian Household Loan To Income Ratios Are Worse Than In The UK

As we highlighted recently, the Bank of England is supporting the imposition of loan to income (LTI) ratios on banks in the UK, as a way to manage risks in the housing sector. So today, we start to explore loan to income data in Australia, captured though our rolling programme of household surveys. We start with some average national data, then look at the NSW picture in more detail. The UK recommendation, was to ensure that mortgage lenders do not extend more than 15% of their total number of new residential mortgages at Loan to Income ratios at or greater than 4.5. This recommendation applies to all lenders which extend residential mortgage lending in excess of £100 million per annum.

So whats the Australian data? We start by looking at the average LTI by postcode. The histogram shows the average LTI by household, calculated at a postcode level, and including all households with a mortgage. Income means the gross annual income, before tax or other deductions. We see that the LTI varies between 2.25 and 8. This is the ratio of household income to the size of the mortgage. We see a peak around 4.25-4.5 times, and a second peak at 6.25. Newer loans are more represented in this second peak.

Loan to income is a good indicator, because it isolates movements in house prices altogether from the data. The rule of thumb when I was working in the bank as a lender was to take 3 times the first income, and add one times the second income as a measure of the loan which was available to a household. Although rough, it was not too bad. Since then, lending rules have changed and criteria stretched. This ability to lend more has in turn led to higher house price inflation, thanks to supply/demand dynamics.

Australia-LTI-Average The current data from the UK shows that LTI’s there are spread between 0 and 6. Interestingly, we see that in their forward scenarios they suggest an emerging second peak around an LTI of 5 times. So LTI’s in Australia are more stretched than in the UK. The regulators here do not report LTI data regularly. This is a significant gap. LTI2We can map relative LTI average to post code. Here is the Sydney example, which highlights that there is a significant geographic concentration of high LTI loans in the western suburbs of Sydney.

Sydney-LTIThere is, further, a correlation between higher LTI loans and Mortgage Stress. Here is the stress data for Sydney.

NSW-Mortgage-StressThese are concerning indicators. In addition as we dig into the data we find that the second peak in the LTI data relates to younger buyers, often first time purchasers. They are highly leveraged into the property market, and are surviving thanks to the very low interest rates available today. If rates rise, this could be a problem. This suggests that the loan to income situation in Australia is more adverse than the UK scene. Whilst we note the UK regulator is acting, there is no macro-prudential intervention in Australia.  There should be.

Later we will present additional data across the other major centres, and examine in more detail those who are recent purchasers.

UK To Cap High Loan To Income Mortgage Loans

The UK Financial Policy Committee is is charged with taking action to remove or reduce systemic risks with a view to protecting and enhancing the resilience of the UK financial system. In their June 2014 report they highlighted that the recovery in the UK housing market has been associated with a marked rise in the share of mortgages extended at high loan to income multiples. Increased household indebtedness may be associated with a higher probability of household distress, which can cause sharp falls in consumer spending. Falls in consumption can in turn weigh on wider economic activity, increasing macroeconomic volatility in the face of shocks to income and interest rates. Furthermore, rapid growth in aggregate credit – which could be associated with a sharp increase in highly indebted households – is strongly associated with subsequent economic instability and the risk of financial crisis. Acting against excessive indebtedness will make the financial system more stable.

As a result, the FPC decided at its June meeting to recommend to the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) that they take steps to ensure that lenders constrain the proportion of new lending at loan to income (LTI) ratios at or above 4.5 to no more than 15% of the total number of new mortgage loans. This is because they believe the the aggregate effect of many firms undertaking such lending could pose a risk to financial stability.

They recommend:

“The PRA and the FCA should ensure that mortgage lenders do not extend more than 15% of their total number of new residential mortgages at Loan to Income ratios at or greater than 4.5. This recommendation applies to all lenders which extend residential mortgage lending in excess of £100 million per annum. The recommendation should be implemented as soon as is practicable.”

The PRA have now released a detailed consultation paper on implementing this recommendation. They are intending to implement the recommendation as soon as practicable. The proposed implementation date for these rules is 1 October 2014. The proposed rules would have the effect of limiting to no more than 15% of the total the number of mortgage loans completed by each lender at or greater than 4.5 times LTI. The limit is intended to restrict but not halt the extension of mortgage lending at such LTIs and can thus be thought of as a limit on the flow of very high LTI lending. The measure is designed to capture risks associated with excessive household indebtedness. Lenders will be required to report on this dimension. This relates to mortgages written, not offers made, or decisions in principle. Remortgages are buy-to-let mortgages are excluded. They provide data on the split by LTI in the UK, showing the trends.LTIThey also show scenarios for the potential impact of the policy. If house prices and mortgage approvals grow in line with the central scenario, the impact of the policy action is likely to be minimal. However, if there is more underlying strength in the housing market than in the central scenario, the proposed rule would be likely to restrict the availability of very high LTI mortgages to some households. The proposed policy might then reduce the level of GDP in the short term to the extent that it acts as a binding constraint on mortgage lending. However, even in the upside scenario considered in the June 2014 FSR, the size of the effect would be small (roughly 0.25%). The main benefits of the policy will be to reduce macroeconomic volatility and the likelihood and severity of financial instability.LTI2Two observations for the Australian market. First, we have no macro-prudential policies here despite the fact that they are recommended by several global bodies. Second, the LTI metric is recommended as the policy of choice, and in Australia we do not see regular reporting of LTI data from the banks via APRA or ABS.  Given the high income multiples here, we should be following the UK. In addition the regulators should start to capture and report LTI data.

Super Fees Are Way Too High In Australia

In an interesting speech yesterday Dr David Gruen Executive Director Macroeconomic Group presented some startling data to the assembled company at the CEDA State of the Nation 2014 event. Citing the Gratton Institute report he said “in 2013, Australian superannuation fees ranged from approximately 0.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent of mean fund size, with fees averaging around $726 per year for a member with a balance of $50,000”. But more significantly, he also cited some international comparative data from the OECD “Although international comparisons are difficult, in 2011, Australia’s average superannuation fees were around three times those in the UK. In aggregate, Australians spend around $20 billion annually, or over 1 per cent of GDP, on superannuation fees”.

Now, looking at the international comparative data, available from the OECD Pension Funds Database, we find Australia is not only more expensive than the UK, but most other countries where super, or a pension equivalent exists, and good data is available. The OECD data is a ratio of expenses to assets, rather than fees. We see that Australia is consistently more expensive than other countries, other than Spain and Slovenia. New Zealand is lower, than Australia, slightly. Does the difference reflect the size of our superannuation industry, because whilst we have per capita, the largest super pools, we do not seem to be reaping scale benefits. Why is this? Could it have something to do with the industry concentration in the sector?

SuperFeesOECDDr Gruen goes on to say:

A microeconomic reform that permanently reduced costs across the economy by a few tenths of 1 per cent of GDP would be considered a significant and worthwhile reform. Significant reductions in superannuation fees would have widespread benefits for society as a whole.

This problem is a global one. In 2009, the Squam Lake Working Group – probably the most prestigious group of finance academics ever assembled, with representatives from a variety of different viewpoints, including Frederic Mishkin from Colombia University, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, John Cochrane from the Chicago School and Raghuram Rajan, now the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India – had this to say:

‘High-fee funds argue that their fees are justified by superior performance. A large body of academic research challenges that argument. On average, high fees are simply a net drain to investors. While some investors might gain by selecting successful high-fee funds, the negative-sum nature of the process implies that other investors must lose even more. Most employees saving for retirement are poorly placed to compete in this game. They should not be forbidden from doing so, but disclosure of high fees and a “surgeon general’s warning” are appropriate.’6

The impact on fees of recent initiatives is unclear at this stage. In particular, the introduction of MySuper and Superstream should make the sector more efficient and push down costs — and there is some evidence that this is occurring. Nevertheless, there needs to be policy consideration of further options to increase competition and drive down costs. Given the stakes, this is an important area for the Financial System Inquiry to examine.

Finally, he makes an important point about the need to provide for income in retirement, rather than simply wealth accumulation, and a call for product innovation in this area.

The key focus of superannuation should be on the provision of retirement income, rather than primarily on wealth accumulation. As more Australians move into retirement, it will become increasingly important for the industry to provide the range of products that people need to manage the financial aspects of their retirement.

It will be increasingly important for the private sector to help manage longevity risk through income stream products such as insurance or pooled products. Most life insurance products do not address longevity risk and the individual immediate annuity market in Australia is small. At issue is the availability of a range of products that balance risk transfer and affordability and the identification of any industry, taxation or regulatory impediments to developing cost effective products that enable individuals to manage longevity risk.

Longevity risk therefore is an important issue, presenting an opportunity for innovation by the superannuation industry. It is also an important issue to get right given the rapidly rising numbers of retirees. In particular, we do not want longevity risk ‘solutions’ that lock retirees into inappropriately high fees and fail to provide sufficient incentives for the superannuation industry to become more efficient.

Our research into the Australian Annuities industry, which we summarised in an earlier post, highlighted that many households were not aware of how much they would need in retirement, were unaware of the average life expectancy, and that annuities were seen as a potentially risky, high cost and inflexible solution:

We asked about their attitudes to annuities. Most said they did not understand them, thought they would get ripped off, and were a poor choice because they wanted to keep control. They also made the point that governments might change the rules on them, and in any case nearly 80% said they would rely on government pensions to see them through.

The bottom line is that not many households are interested at the moment. Younger households might be, but of course later in life. So the demand side of the equation suggests that annuities will not be the product of choice for many anytime soon.

The broader issue of a mismatch between savings and income expectations, and future life expectancy is a bigger and more serious issue, as the government will not be able to afford to extend support to the every growing ranks of baby boomers who have exhausted their superannuation savings. This looks like a significant issue which requires significant changes in education and perhaps policy.

It will be interesting to see what transpires from the Financial System Inquiry, and whether we see further product innovation develop, alongside pressure to reduce fees. Given the big banks have a significant footprint in superannuation, we can expect opposition to fee reduction, and if fees do fall significantly, then pressure on profitability of the majors. Finally, it is worth noting that this speech was posted on the Treasury website!

Housing Finance Was Highest Ever In April

Continuing our analysis of the ABS April 2014 lending data, it is worth looking at the overall housing finance data. Total lent, including owner occupied and investment secured lending, refinance, and unsecured was $28.3 billion, a record. The previous highest was $28.0 billion in February (both figures are seasonally adjusted).

April14HousingLendingLooking at the percentage splits, in April, 33% went to secured finance of existing dwellings, 32.5% on investment housing by individuals, 17.3% on refinancing and 6.1% on finance for owner occupied construction. On the investment side, 3.4% went to investment housing purchases by other entities, including companies and self-managed superannuation, and 2.86% went to investment housing construction.

April14HousingLendingTypeThe long term percentage mix from 2000 onwards shows the inroads investment lending is making into the overall portfolio.

April14HousingLendingTypePCFrom2000We can also show this by looking at the percentage relating to investment lending as a percentage of all housing lending, currently at 38.8%. This is a high.

April14InvestmentTrendWe still hold the view the current policy settings are wrong. Too much lending is pouring into an inflated housing sector. Interest rates are too low. The banks are lending too freely, and benefiting from inflated balance sheets and profits as a result. Households have more debt than everThe IMF is right.

Commercial Lending Outstrips Housing Growth In April

The ABS released their Lending data for April 2014. In the last month, commercial lending was up 5.8% seasonally adjusted, to $43,802 million whilst housing finance was up 1.4% to $16,911 million. Personal finance and lease finance were both down. This data presents the monthly flows.

April14LendingAcross the sectors, ABS reports:

HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION –  The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.4% in trend terms, and the seasonally adjusted series rose 1.4%.

PERSONAL FINANCE –  The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 0.3%. Revolving credit commitments fell 0.5% and fixed lending commitments fell 0.2%.  The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 2.2%. Revolving credit commitments fell 3.3% and fixed lending commitments fell 1.4%.

COMMERCIAL FINANCE – The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 2.0%. Revolving credit commitments rose 3.3% and fixed lending commitments rose 1.6%. The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 5.8% in April 2014, following a rise of 3.9% in March 2014. Fixed lending commitments rose 6.3%, following a rise of 1.6% in the previous month. Revolving credit commitments rose 4.3%, following a rise of 11.4% in the previous month.

LEASE FINANCE – The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments fell 1.0% and the seasonally adjusted series fell 20.3%, after a rise of 7.5% in March 2014.

 

IMF Warns On Housing, Launches New Index

The IMF has launched its Global Housing Watch, a selected set of data highlighting potential pressures in the housing market across countries. “Housing is an essential sector of every country’s economy, but it has also been a source of instability for financial institutions and countries. Understanding the drivers of house price cycles, and how to moderate these cycles, is important for economic stability.In its first release, they warn of high prices, and tensions between central bank policies and broader economic issues”. They argue that housing has been the subject of “benign neglect”.

Here are the initial findings, with Australia highlighted where appropriate.

First, the Global House Price Index is a compilation of average housing prices in different countries that tells us if prices are going up globally. The global house price index highlights the fact that after the GFC in 2007, there was only a minor correction, so house prices remain high by historic standards.

IMFJun14-0Year on year growth in prices does vary by country, Australia is towards the top of the growth trend, although New Zealand is even higher, and the Philippines is top.

IMFJun14-3Looking at relative price to income, Australia is on average third highest (they do not split out specific markets in countries). Belgium is the most expensive, Japan the least.

IMFJun14-2Finally, the ratio of house prices to rent also highlight that Australia is at the high end, behind Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Belgium. Japan is the lowest.

IMFJun14-1They conclude:

We do have a set of policy tools that can help – sometimes these are referred to as “Mip-Map-Mop.” Microprudential (Mip) policies look at an individual bank’s balance sheet, for example to determine if it is making too many real estate loans. But it could be that the individual banks are doing what seems healthy for them, but what the banking system as a whole is doing needs results in an unhealthy growth in lending.

So, in addition, macroprudential regulations (Map), operating at the level of the financial sector as a whole, come into play. The most commonly used measures cap how much individuals may borrow relative to their income. These prudential measures are being increasingly used by countries to prevent an unsustainable build-up in debt.

Finally, there is the monetary policy (Mop) that involves the central bank raising interest rates if they want to cool off the housing sector. This can be tricky, because sometimes the economy is weak but the housing sector is booming, and raising the interest rate can harm the overall economy.

We have argued for some time that Australia need to use macroprudential  policies to help to bring the run-away housing market under control. Focus on investment lending should be first priority. Over emphasis on lending for housing sucks the air from the broader economy and makes it harder for potentially productive businesses to get the lending support they need. Households servicing larger debts have less spending power, which dampens economic activity.

Is Peer To Peer Lending Going Big Time?

On the day, Sarv Girn, the Chief Information Officer at the RBA gave a speech entitled Digital Disruption – Opportunities for Innovation and Growth to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), the AFR reports that Peer-to-peer lender SocietyOne has attracted the interest of James Packer and Lachlan Murdoch, although nothing is signed yet.

This is on top of the  $5 million investment Westpac Banking Corporation equity stake in the business made through its venture capital fund, Reinventure Group. The Australian head of global private equity giant KKR, ­Justin Reizes, has also invested in SocietyOne in a personal capacity.

In a recent article, SocietyOne is said to have made almost 150 loans, totalling $2 million. About 11% of applications are accepted. SocietyOne’s default rate at June 30 was 2.3 per cent. The market place includes auction functionality like ebay to match borrowers and investors.

You can read our recent article on P2P lending here. We included a summary of SocietyOne. Recently SocietyOne introduced a personal loan rate for prime borrowers at more than 5 per cent lower than the major banks. For example, borrowers with excellent credit that translates to a comparison rate of 9.80 per cent per annum which is 5.48 per cent lower than the average personal loan rate from the big four banks.

We think P2P Lending has the potential to be a disruptive force and could change the face of regular banking, quite soon. As the AFR concludes:

Westpac’s interest in SocietyOne was partly driven by a desire to be close to the development of such technology. Investor interest in SocietyOne also illustrates the extent to which banking is fast becoming a technology business. The winds of change may have arrived late to an industry historically defined by high barriers to entry and oligopolistic structures, but they now blow hard.

 

 

 

Investment Loans Break More Records In April

The ABS published their housing finance data for April 2014. It is slightly below expectations, but the most significant element is the further rise in investor lending, which accounted for $10.9bn, or 39.4% of loans written. The highest ever was in December 2013, when Investment loans reached 39.6%.

According to the ABS, the trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.4%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.5% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.7%. In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 0.1%, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 1.1% and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.1%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 1.3%.

OO-and-Inv-April-2014

OO-and-Inv-PC-April-2014
In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 12.3% in April 2014 from 12.6% in March 2014. This trend continues to show that first time buyers are unable or unwilling to enter the market. We will be publishing some of our recent survey results soon which will show affordability is the main factor preventing them entering the market.

First-Time-April-2014