UK To Cap High Loan To Income Mortgage Loans

The UK Financial Policy Committee is is charged with taking action to remove or reduce systemic risks with a view to protecting and enhancing the resilience of the UK financial system. In their June 2014 report they highlighted that the recovery in the UK housing market has been associated with a marked rise in the share of mortgages extended at high loan to income multiples. Increased household indebtedness may be associated with a higher probability of household distress, which can cause sharp falls in consumer spending. Falls in consumption can in turn weigh on wider economic activity, increasing macroeconomic volatility in the face of shocks to income and interest rates. Furthermore, rapid growth in aggregate credit – which could be associated with a sharp increase in highly indebted households – is strongly associated with subsequent economic instability and the risk of financial crisis. Acting against excessive indebtedness will make the financial system more stable.

As a result, the FPC decided at its June meeting to recommend to the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) that they take steps to ensure that lenders constrain the proportion of new lending at loan to income (LTI) ratios at or above 4.5 to no more than 15% of the total number of new mortgage loans. This is because they believe the the aggregate effect of many firms undertaking such lending could pose a risk to financial stability.

They recommend:

“The PRA and the FCA should ensure that mortgage lenders do not extend more than 15% of their total number of new residential mortgages at Loan to Income ratios at or greater than 4.5. This recommendation applies to all lenders which extend residential mortgage lending in excess of £100 million per annum. The recommendation should be implemented as soon as is practicable.”

The PRA have now released a detailed consultation paper on implementing this recommendation. They are intending to implement the recommendation as soon as practicable. The proposed implementation date for these rules is 1 October 2014. The proposed rules would have the effect of limiting to no more than 15% of the total the number of mortgage loans completed by each lender at or greater than 4.5 times LTI. The limit is intended to restrict but not halt the extension of mortgage lending at such LTIs and can thus be thought of as a limit on the flow of very high LTI lending. The measure is designed to capture risks associated with excessive household indebtedness. Lenders will be required to report on this dimension. This relates to mortgages written, not offers made, or decisions in principle. Remortgages are buy-to-let mortgages are excluded. They provide data on the split by LTI in the UK, showing the trends.LTIThey also show scenarios for the potential impact of the policy. If house prices and mortgage approvals grow in line with the central scenario, the impact of the policy action is likely to be minimal. However, if there is more underlying strength in the housing market than in the central scenario, the proposed rule would be likely to restrict the availability of very high LTI mortgages to some households. The proposed policy might then reduce the level of GDP in the short term to the extent that it acts as a binding constraint on mortgage lending. However, even in the upside scenario considered in the June 2014 FSR, the size of the effect would be small (roughly 0.25%). The main benefits of the policy will be to reduce macroeconomic volatility and the likelihood and severity of financial instability.LTI2Two observations for the Australian market. First, we have no macro-prudential policies here despite the fact that they are recommended by several global bodies. Second, the LTI metric is recommended as the policy of choice, and in Australia we do not see regular reporting of LTI data from the banks via APRA or ABS.  Given the high income multiples here, we should be following the UK. In addition the regulators should start to capture and report LTI data.

Super Fees Are Way Too High In Australia

In an interesting speech yesterday Dr David Gruen Executive Director Macroeconomic Group presented some startling data to the assembled company at the CEDA State of the Nation 2014 event. Citing the Gratton Institute report he said “in 2013, Australian superannuation fees ranged from approximately 0.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent of mean fund size, with fees averaging around $726 per year for a member with a balance of $50,000”. But more significantly, he also cited some international comparative data from the OECD “Although international comparisons are difficult, in 2011, Australia’s average superannuation fees were around three times those in the UK. In aggregate, Australians spend around $20 billion annually, or over 1 per cent of GDP, on superannuation fees”.

Now, looking at the international comparative data, available from the OECD Pension Funds Database, we find Australia is not only more expensive than the UK, but most other countries where super, or a pension equivalent exists, and good data is available. The OECD data is a ratio of expenses to assets, rather than fees. We see that Australia is consistently more expensive than other countries, other than Spain and Slovenia. New Zealand is lower, than Australia, slightly. Does the difference reflect the size of our superannuation industry, because whilst we have per capita, the largest super pools, we do not seem to be reaping scale benefits. Why is this? Could it have something to do with the industry concentration in the sector?

SuperFeesOECDDr Gruen goes on to say:

A microeconomic reform that permanently reduced costs across the economy by a few tenths of 1 per cent of GDP would be considered a significant and worthwhile reform. Significant reductions in superannuation fees would have widespread benefits for society as a whole.

This problem is a global one. In 2009, the Squam Lake Working Group – probably the most prestigious group of finance academics ever assembled, with representatives from a variety of different viewpoints, including Frederic Mishkin from Colombia University, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, John Cochrane from the Chicago School and Raghuram Rajan, now the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India – had this to say:

‘High-fee funds argue that their fees are justified by superior performance. A large body of academic research challenges that argument. On average, high fees are simply a net drain to investors. While some investors might gain by selecting successful high-fee funds, the negative-sum nature of the process implies that other investors must lose even more. Most employees saving for retirement are poorly placed to compete in this game. They should not be forbidden from doing so, but disclosure of high fees and a “surgeon general’s warning” are appropriate.’6

The impact on fees of recent initiatives is unclear at this stage. In particular, the introduction of MySuper and Superstream should make the sector more efficient and push down costs — and there is some evidence that this is occurring. Nevertheless, there needs to be policy consideration of further options to increase competition and drive down costs. Given the stakes, this is an important area for the Financial System Inquiry to examine.

Finally, he makes an important point about the need to provide for income in retirement, rather than simply wealth accumulation, and a call for product innovation in this area.

The key focus of superannuation should be on the provision of retirement income, rather than primarily on wealth accumulation. As more Australians move into retirement, it will become increasingly important for the industry to provide the range of products that people need to manage the financial aspects of their retirement.

It will be increasingly important for the private sector to help manage longevity risk through income stream products such as insurance or pooled products. Most life insurance products do not address longevity risk and the individual immediate annuity market in Australia is small. At issue is the availability of a range of products that balance risk transfer and affordability and the identification of any industry, taxation or regulatory impediments to developing cost effective products that enable individuals to manage longevity risk.

Longevity risk therefore is an important issue, presenting an opportunity for innovation by the superannuation industry. It is also an important issue to get right given the rapidly rising numbers of retirees. In particular, we do not want longevity risk ‘solutions’ that lock retirees into inappropriately high fees and fail to provide sufficient incentives for the superannuation industry to become more efficient.

Our research into the Australian Annuities industry, which we summarised in an earlier post, highlighted that many households were not aware of how much they would need in retirement, were unaware of the average life expectancy, and that annuities were seen as a potentially risky, high cost and inflexible solution:

We asked about their attitudes to annuities. Most said they did not understand them, thought they would get ripped off, and were a poor choice because they wanted to keep control. They also made the point that governments might change the rules on them, and in any case nearly 80% said they would rely on government pensions to see them through.

The bottom line is that not many households are interested at the moment. Younger households might be, but of course later in life. So the demand side of the equation suggests that annuities will not be the product of choice for many anytime soon.

The broader issue of a mismatch between savings and income expectations, and future life expectancy is a bigger and more serious issue, as the government will not be able to afford to extend support to the every growing ranks of baby boomers who have exhausted their superannuation savings. This looks like a significant issue which requires significant changes in education and perhaps policy.

It will be interesting to see what transpires from the Financial System Inquiry, and whether we see further product innovation develop, alongside pressure to reduce fees. Given the big banks have a significant footprint in superannuation, we can expect opposition to fee reduction, and if fees do fall significantly, then pressure on profitability of the majors. Finally, it is worth noting that this speech was posted on the Treasury website!

Housing Finance Was Highest Ever In April

Continuing our analysis of the ABS April 2014 lending data, it is worth looking at the overall housing finance data. Total lent, including owner occupied and investment secured lending, refinance, and unsecured was $28.3 billion, a record. The previous highest was $28.0 billion in February (both figures are seasonally adjusted).

April14HousingLendingLooking at the percentage splits, in April, 33% went to secured finance of existing dwellings, 32.5% on investment housing by individuals, 17.3% on refinancing and 6.1% on finance for owner occupied construction. On the investment side, 3.4% went to investment housing purchases by other entities, including companies and self-managed superannuation, and 2.86% went to investment housing construction.

April14HousingLendingTypeThe long term percentage mix from 2000 onwards shows the inroads investment lending is making into the overall portfolio.

April14HousingLendingTypePCFrom2000We can also show this by looking at the percentage relating to investment lending as a percentage of all housing lending, currently at 38.8%. This is a high.

April14InvestmentTrendWe still hold the view the current policy settings are wrong. Too much lending is pouring into an inflated housing sector. Interest rates are too low. The banks are lending too freely, and benefiting from inflated balance sheets and profits as a result. Households have more debt than everThe IMF is right.

Commercial Lending Outstrips Housing Growth In April

The ABS released their Lending data for April 2014. In the last month, commercial lending was up 5.8% seasonally adjusted, to $43,802 million whilst housing finance was up 1.4% to $16,911 million. Personal finance and lease finance were both down. This data presents the monthly flows.

April14LendingAcross the sectors, ABS reports:

HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION –  The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.4% in trend terms, and the seasonally adjusted series rose 1.4%.

PERSONAL FINANCE –  The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 0.3%. Revolving credit commitments fell 0.5% and fixed lending commitments fell 0.2%.  The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 2.2%. Revolving credit commitments fell 3.3% and fixed lending commitments fell 1.4%.

COMMERCIAL FINANCE – The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 2.0%. Revolving credit commitments rose 3.3% and fixed lending commitments rose 1.6%. The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 5.8% in April 2014, following a rise of 3.9% in March 2014. Fixed lending commitments rose 6.3%, following a rise of 1.6% in the previous month. Revolving credit commitments rose 4.3%, following a rise of 11.4% in the previous month.

LEASE FINANCE – The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments fell 1.0% and the seasonally adjusted series fell 20.3%, after a rise of 7.5% in March 2014.

 

IMF Warns On Housing, Launches New Index

The IMF has launched its Global Housing Watch, a selected set of data highlighting potential pressures in the housing market across countries. “Housing is an essential sector of every country’s economy, but it has also been a source of instability for financial institutions and countries. Understanding the drivers of house price cycles, and how to moderate these cycles, is important for economic stability.In its first release, they warn of high prices, and tensions between central bank policies and broader economic issues”. They argue that housing has been the subject of “benign neglect”.

Here are the initial findings, with Australia highlighted where appropriate.

First, the Global House Price Index is a compilation of average housing prices in different countries that tells us if prices are going up globally. The global house price index highlights the fact that after the GFC in 2007, there was only a minor correction, so house prices remain high by historic standards.

IMFJun14-0Year on year growth in prices does vary by country, Australia is towards the top of the growth trend, although New Zealand is even higher, and the Philippines is top.

IMFJun14-3Looking at relative price to income, Australia is on average third highest (they do not split out specific markets in countries). Belgium is the most expensive, Japan the least.

IMFJun14-2Finally, the ratio of house prices to rent also highlight that Australia is at the high end, behind Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Belgium. Japan is the lowest.

IMFJun14-1They conclude:

We do have a set of policy tools that can help – sometimes these are referred to as “Mip-Map-Mop.” Microprudential (Mip) policies look at an individual bank’s balance sheet, for example to determine if it is making too many real estate loans. But it could be that the individual banks are doing what seems healthy for them, but what the banking system as a whole is doing needs results in an unhealthy growth in lending.

So, in addition, macroprudential regulations (Map), operating at the level of the financial sector as a whole, come into play. The most commonly used measures cap how much individuals may borrow relative to their income. These prudential measures are being increasingly used by countries to prevent an unsustainable build-up in debt.

Finally, there is the monetary policy (Mop) that involves the central bank raising interest rates if they want to cool off the housing sector. This can be tricky, because sometimes the economy is weak but the housing sector is booming, and raising the interest rate can harm the overall economy.

We have argued for some time that Australia need to use macroprudential  policies to help to bring the run-away housing market under control. Focus on investment lending should be first priority. Over emphasis on lending for housing sucks the air from the broader economy and makes it harder for potentially productive businesses to get the lending support they need. Households servicing larger debts have less spending power, which dampens economic activity.

Is Peer To Peer Lending Going Big Time?

On the day, Sarv Girn, the Chief Information Officer at the RBA gave a speech entitled Digital Disruption – Opportunities for Innovation and Growth to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), the AFR reports that Peer-to-peer lender SocietyOne has attracted the interest of James Packer and Lachlan Murdoch, although nothing is signed yet.

This is on top of the  $5 million investment Westpac Banking Corporation equity stake in the business made through its venture capital fund, Reinventure Group. The Australian head of global private equity giant KKR, ­Justin Reizes, has also invested in SocietyOne in a personal capacity.

In a recent article, SocietyOne is said to have made almost 150 loans, totalling $2 million. About 11% of applications are accepted. SocietyOne’s default rate at June 30 was 2.3 per cent. The market place includes auction functionality like ebay to match borrowers and investors.

You can read our recent article on P2P lending here. We included a summary of SocietyOne. Recently SocietyOne introduced a personal loan rate for prime borrowers at more than 5 per cent lower than the major banks. For example, borrowers with excellent credit that translates to a comparison rate of 9.80 per cent per annum which is 5.48 per cent lower than the average personal loan rate from the big four banks.

We think P2P Lending has the potential to be a disruptive force and could change the face of regular banking, quite soon. As the AFR concludes:

Westpac’s interest in SocietyOne was partly driven by a desire to be close to the development of such technology. Investor interest in SocietyOne also illustrates the extent to which banking is fast becoming a technology business. The winds of change may have arrived late to an industry historically defined by high barriers to entry and oligopolistic structures, but they now blow hard.

 

 

 

Investment Loans Break More Records In April

The ABS published their housing finance data for April 2014. It is slightly below expectations, but the most significant element is the further rise in investor lending, which accounted for $10.9bn, or 39.4% of loans written. The highest ever was in December 2013, when Investment loans reached 39.6%.

According to the ABS, the trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.4%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.5% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.7%. In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 0.1%, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 1.1% and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.1%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 1.3%.

OO-and-Inv-April-2014

OO-and-Inv-PC-April-2014
In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 12.3% in April 2014 from 12.6% in March 2014. This trend continues to show that first time buyers are unable or unwilling to enter the market. We will be publishing some of our recent survey results soon which will show affordability is the main factor preventing them entering the market.

First-Time-April-2014

Rampant Mortgage Discounting Available, For Some!

We just updated our latest household survey responses, and today I update our findings on mortgage discounting. We last covered bank margins in May, and highlighted the selective discounting in play as funding costs ease. People who do not switch will not be enjoying the best rates. One question in our survey asks new borrowers the discount they achieved from standard rates. We have been maintaining this data for a number of years. We are interested in the discount achieved on average from the standard headline rate. Both the mean discount and range of discounts has been increasing significantly.

First, here is the latest discount data, plotted against the RBA cash rate (the light blue line). We see that the mean average is close to 1% off standard rates. This is a record high. The darker blue line plots the discount achieved.

DiscountJun

What is even more interesting is the spread or range of discounts achieved. Here we chart the low and high mean spreads. We see that the range is wider than its been since before the GFC.

DiscountJun-RangeBanks continue to be selective about the business they want to write, and are offering significant discounts off their standard rates to some customers. Other customers, including most first time buyers are not achieving the same outcome on rates, with significantly lower discounts achieved. We see the highest discounts been offered by some players for investment loans, and other for larger loans, especially at lower LVRs. If your loans has a higher LVR the discount on average is lower.

However, it is clear that the discount achieved partly depends on how firmly prospective borrowers negotiate. Those who don’t ask, won’t get. My message is, in the current low credit growth environment, banks are more than willing to lend. They cannot necessarily relax lending standards to power growth, thanks to the recent broadsides from the RBA and APRA, so they are willing to go out of their way to grab good business, and discounting is the lever of choice. A word of warning to borrowers though, make sure these offers are not just introductory rates, else you might get a rude shock later when the “special” rate morphs back to a higher and uncompetitive normal rate.

Australia’s New Payment Platform (NPP)

Following on from yesterdays discussion about current consumer payment trends, today we will look at the current status of the New Payments Platform. “The proposed centralised infrastructure and real-time nature of the system, combined with the flexibility of payment messaging, ability to carry additional remittance information and the easy addressing capability, will mean that payments can be better integrated with many other aspects of our lives. Businesses should be able to achieve substantial efficiency gains and there will be significant improvements to the timeliness, accessibility and usability of the payments system for consumers” according to Tony Richards, the Head of Payments Policy Department at the Reserve Bank. in his recent speech The Way We Pay: Now and in the Future.

A bit of history first. The current payment infrastructure in Australia is complex, quite old and will not provide the flexibility demanded by new devices and systems. It is supported by a complex web of networks and bilateral charging arrangements, which makes it difficult for new players to enter the payments market, and so protects the current incumbents. In May 2010 the RBA announced a review of the Australian payments systems and how innovation may be improved. It took a medium-term perspective, looking at trends and developments overseas in payment systems and at possible gaps in the Australian payments system that might need to be filled over a time horizon of five to ten years. In June 2012, the conclusions from the review were published. The headline findings reflected the potential gaps in the payments system identified during the course of the Strategic Review.

In the Review, the Payments System Board (PSB) identified a number of gaps in the services currently provided by the payments system. Among these were:

  • the ability for individuals to make electronic payments with real-time funds availability to the recipient
  • the ability to make and receive such payments outside of normal banking hours
  • the ability to address payments in a relatively simple way, such as to an individual’s mobile phone number or email address rather than to their BSB and account number
  • and, most relevant for businesses, the ability to send anything more than a minimal amount of information with an electronic payment.

A key objective was the establishment of a system that would provide real-time retail payments, with real-time funds availability, by the end of 2016. The review recognised that this type of system has been a focus of innovation in a number of other countries. Finally, the bank stated that they believed that a real-time retail payment system would best be delivered by the establishment of a real-time payments hub, rather than a web of bilateral links. It is also prepared to consider helping to facilitate these payments by providing a system for real-time interbank settlement via the Reserve Bank’s RITS system, which currently provides real-time settlement for high-value transactions.

So the New Payment Platform (NPP) was born. An industry steering committee is overseeing development of the NPP. The New Payments Platform Steering Committee first met on 20 June 2013. It comprises senior representatives from the Australian banking and mutual sector, an alternative payments provider and the APCA CEO. An independent Chair, Paul Lahiff, was appointed in September 2013. The Steering Committee appointed KPMG as program manager to the project to ensure a well-resourced, highly collaborative industry program.

The programme participants are:

According to The Australian Payments Clearing Association CEO, Chris Hamilton, these 17 of its 87 members have agreed so far to fund the network, although the costs are not currently known. Lahiff is quoted as saying that NPP will provide “the basic “rail-tracks” on which “overlays” or payments services would be built. “It is minimalist in what it needs to do. It will be constructed as a utility that will be industry owned,” he said. “That allows networking, switching, addressing and settlement. As long as you have an interface to the basic infrastructure, it allows everybody to compete on how they use it most effectively.”

A new utility entity, owned by the payments industry will be created. Tenders were issued earlier in 2014, and responses are being considered at the moment. About 80 people are working on the project. Once the enabling infrastructure in launched, there is the prospect of additional value-added services “overlay services” being offered. Here is the schematic which APCA draws:

npp-full-architecture-diagram

There are a number of issues worth reflecting on.

  1. The banks have considerable investments in the current bilateral systems and processes. Will they need to write off these investments if they migrate to a new platform?
  2. Whilst the establishment of a centralised payment switch is relatively simple (its been done elsewhere), the real challenge is to retrofit the current bank’s systems and processes into the new world. It is well known that some banks have problematic infrastructure, and as a result any migration will be complex and expensive. Banks with batch processing will have issues fitting into a real-time 24/7 world, and may need to create “shadow” real-time proxies such are used for internet banking.
  3. What will the revenue model which will underpin the new infrastructure be?
  4. Will the current 17 members put barriers in the way which means that the new payments infrastructure will be inaccessible by new players and innovators? Will new competitors be locked out?
  5. The intention will be to migrate from sort code and account numbers to a single number used for receiving payments. So should this infrastructure also be considered an a mechanism to establish account number portability. A number of recent submissions to the Federal Government’s financial system inquiry have proposed this.

The NPP has the potential to liberate payments and offer innovation to consumers and businesses. It is essential to evolve payments into a more innovative and open environment, we will see if NPP fits the bill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Payment Trends In Australia – Cash Is No Longer King

The RBA released an important report today on The Changing Way We Pay: Trends in Consumer Payments. Their paper contains the results of the third Survey of Consumers’ Use of Payment Methods which was conducted in November 2013. The survey used a diary and end-of-survey questionnaire to collect data on the use of cash, cards and a range of other payment methods, both at the point of sale and via remote channels (online, mail and telephone). They say that 2013 data show that cash and cheque use has continued to fall. The use of cards has risen significantly, and there has also been an increase in the use of PayPal. The growth in the use of cards and the reduction in cash use are evident across households in all age and household income groups. The strong growth in remote payments is one contributor to the observed change in the use of cash and cards. However, the main contribution is from the increased use of cards at the point of sale, which is likely to reflect both growth in the availability of card terminals at merchants and changing consumer preferences as authentication methods have evolved.

In an accompanying speech, The Way We Pay: Now and in the Future, Tony Richards, the Head of Payments Policy Department outlined the main findings from the report. Here are some of the main points. First, lower-value payments were typically made with cash, while card payments became more common for larger payment values and other electronic payments were typically used for only for higher-value payments. Over time, electronic payments have increasingly been used for lower-value payments.

sp-so-040614-graph1 Looking across age groups, cash is used more by older individuals than by younger ones. But the decline in its share of all transactions is evident across respondents in all age-groups. The decline is also fairly broad-based across different types of merchants. It can be partly explained by the fact that the mix of transactions in the economy is gradually shifting from in-person to online, where cash is essentially not used. However, it is mostly a function of the decline in cash use in the traditional point-of-sale environment and the development of newer electronic technologies that can match or surpass the convenience and speed of cash in some types of transactions and transfers.

sp-so-040614-graph2The flip-side to the declining use of cash has obviously been the rise in the use of payment cards for transactions of all sizes. This has been associated with continuing growth in the number of card terminals in Australia (up by around 35 per cent over the six years to 2013), and advances in card technologies and authentication methods. The ongoing shift to the use of PINs in card transactions and the sharp pick-up in the use of contactless payments have both resulted in a reduction in the typical time needed to complete a card transaction.

sp-so-040614-graph3In the latest survey, two-thirds of respondents reported that they had a card with contactless functionality and almost half of these reported a contactless transaction in the week of the study. Contactless transactions accounted for 22 per cent of all face-to-face card transactions. This share was significantly higher for payments under $20

sp-so-040614-graph4The survey shows that there are significant differences in the use of debit and credit cards across demographic groups. Younger households are much more likely to use debit cards than credit cards, presumably reflecting reduced access to credit cards and a preference to ‘use their own money’. Lower income households also use debit more frequently than credit, most likely for similar reasons. However, those in the highest income quartile use their credit card significantly more than their debit card. This may well reflect the greater desire to get reward points associated with credit card use. The survey shows that an individual in the highest income quartile is six times more likely to have a premium credit card than a household in the lowest income quartile.

sp-so-040614-graph5The survey shows a significant decline in the use of cheques. Around 80 percent of respondents reported that they had not written a cheque over the previous year. Cheque use is especially low in younger age groups. However, it is also declining significantly in older age groups. We can expect the decline in the use of cheques to continue as other payment methods became available to meet either the needs of households that currently still prefer to use cheques or the needs of businesses that find there are few alternatives for some specific uses.

The survey also provides evidence on the growth of some relatively new means of making payments or transfers.

  • For example, it shows that PayPal was used for around 3 percent of transactions in 2013, up from around 1 per cent in 2010. This mostly reflects an increase in the share of transactions occurring online and an increase in PayPal’s share of that market.
  • Smartphone payments are an area of strong innovation in the payments system. The survey shows that there is a shift toward making more person-to-person transfers using smartphones, with around 9 per cent of transfers to family and friends made via smartphone. However, the use of smartphones for payments was still low, at less than 1 per cent of consumer payments to businesses. It appears that, for the time being, smartphones are mostly a convenient alternative method of internet access, rather than a means of payment in their own right. This clearly has the potential to change as new near-field communications (NFC) or Bluetooth technologies for point-of-sale smartphone payments emerge.

So overall we see a significant and continued migration away from cash and cheques to cards and electronic payments. This is consistent with our recent research on consumer banking channel preferences, the Quiet Revolution. The UK is further ahead with new mobile payment mechanisms. Next time we will discuss the current initiatives in Australia to migrate payments onto a new payments platform (NPP) by 2016.