Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
More coherence from our property insider as we continue to debunk some of the property myths, and focus in on the data.
This week, we touch on official and unofficial scams…
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is our latest weekly market update.
Formulated by the German physicist and Nobel laureate Werner Heisenberg in 1927, the uncertainty principle states that we cannot know both the position and speed of a particle, such as a photon or electron, with perfect accuracy; the more we nail down the particle’s position, the less we know about its speed and vice versa.
I think the same can be said of the markets, as light is dawning that its hard to pin down the true vectors of inflation, and so market value as bonds yields are tending to rise, despite the expectation of rate cuts from Central Bankers soon. As a result, the US$ and US markets, alongside Japan seem more in favour than Europe, while gold and crypto might be risk shelters, or not.
But overall, the past week was an object lesson in uncertainty, as emerging data questioned analysts’ assumptions as we saw weekly declines that snaped seven straight weekly gains, while the dollar rose and was on track for its strongest week since mid-January, as U.S. inflation data has diluted hopes for interest rate cuts. Plus, we had the triple Witching, which always adds uncertainty.
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Robbie Barwick and I parse the latest from the Regional Banking Inquiry. The Senators are on the scent now, and Bankwest got a right pasting…
Here’s the press release this is from:
https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/bankwest-betrayal-west-aussies-test-government
Here’s the details. What you can do: Call and email WA Labor MPs to demand they stand up to BankWest and CBA and tell their boss Anthony Albanese to re-establish a People’s Bank:
Member for Tangney Sam Lim Ph: (08) 9354 9633 Email: Sam.Lim.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Hasluck Tania Lawrence Ph: (08) 6245 3340 Email: Tania.Lawrence.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Pearce Tracey Roberts Ph: (08) 6500 6499 Email: Tracey.Roberts.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Swan Zaneta Mascarenhas Ph: (08) 9355 0099 Email: Zaneta.Mascarenhas.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Cowan Dr Anne Aly Ph: (08) 9409 4517 Email: Anne.Aly.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Burt Matt Keogh Ph: (08) 9390 0180 Email: Matt.Keogh.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Perth Patrick Gorman Ph: (08) 9272 3411 Email: Patrick.Gorman.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Brand Madeleine King Ph: (08) 9527 9377 Email: Madeleine.King.MP@aph.gov.au
Member for Fremantle Josh Wilson Ph: (08) 9335 8555 Email: Josh.Wilson.MP@aph.gov.au
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Commonwealth Bank subsidiary Bankwest, the 130-year-old former Bank of Western Australia bank announced last Wednesday that it was moving to become a digital-only bank and would close 45 locations in the state. The 45 Bankwest branches that have been earmarked for closure will close their doors by October this year. There are 28 locations in Perth and 17 in regional WA. A further 15 branches will be rebranded under the Commonwealth Bank banner and are expected to finish their transformation by the end of the year.
Yes, this is the same CBA whose CEO Mat Comyn on 20th September 2023 in a statement to the Senate Inquiry into regional branch closures promised not to close more branches until at least 2026, even though they specifically excluded Bankwest from their statement, while saying “we recognise the unique and important contribution that regional Australia makes to our country”. “Our decision to pause regional branch closures is also predicated on customers and communities valuing our decision to stay”.
Committee member Senator Richard Colbeck said the Senate committee has been hearing plenty of people raising concerns about the vital banking services being lost.
“Every week in our hearings we hear from local communities how important these essential services are and how their communities are affected, yet those who are given a license to provide those services, the so-called service sector, continuously ignore those pleas and withdraw services – it is as though their ears were painted on,” he said.
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This week the Senate held hearings into the proposed changes to the way the RBA works. The original review was led by three Technocrats included a recommendation to remove the overrule power. This power specifically, section 11 of the Reserve Bank Act 1959 enables the federal treasurer to “overrule” an action taken by the Reserve Bank in extreme situations, via a clear and determined process, and even though no Australian government had used it in the more than 60 years it is important. It’s supposed to be a democratic fail-safe.
The Technocrats recommended the overrule power should be removed from the act. Their reasoning was that there was a risk that the federal treasurer, and by extension the federal government, might abuse that power. But what if the RBA abuses their power? The proposed change was not supported by the bulk of those who appeared in the Senate hearings, so today we look at the evidence provided.
At the heart of the issue is this. How accountable should the RBA be? And if there is no democratic override from the section 11 power, what happens if the Economists at the RBA set monetary policy in a way that badly impacts ordinary people, bearing in mind that another recommendation was to strike safeguarding the “welfare of all Australians” from their objectives. The focus will be on inflation and employment, only.
Central bankers are not infallible, sometimes makes mistakes, and frankly are already not accountable for their decisions, right or wrong. It’s a question of democracy.
So standing back, it seems it was the Technocrats and Economists who wanted to remove the section 11 power, but those with real lived experience, from both the Central Bank, and Government, as well as many respected observers, all agree.
Democracy would be sacrificed, and the Central Bank would be even less accountable if the power was removed. In other words, it is a question of democracy. And more broadly the idea of unelected Central Banks, being able to impose monetary policy decisions without question should terrify us all.
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This is my edit of our monthly economic update on Nuggets News, as we explore the current trends across markets and economies. Things are getting interesting as higher for longer plays out.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, starting with the US, Europe, Asia and Australia, as well as Oil and Crypto.
The S&P 500 soared to fresh highs on Friday, but fewer stocks have been participating in the rally, stirring worries that recent gains could reverse if the market’s leaders stumble.
We are talking market breadth, or the number of stocks taking part in a broader index’s rise. A high breadth is often viewed as a healthy sign by investors as it shows gains are less dependent on a small cluster of names.
The reverse, a narrowing, on the other hand is a warning. And in fact, the Magnificent Seven have accounted for nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s gain this year, according to Dow Jones Indices.
The problem is the narrow group of stocks powering the market could make it more vulnerable to swift declines if an earnings disappointment or other issue hits its biggest stocks. While most of the megacaps have powered higher this year, shares of Tesla have fallen 22%, the third-worst performer in the S&P 500, demonstrating how quickly the market’s superstars can fall out of favor.
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We discuss the latest from the RBA, via the new press conference and the Statement On Monetary Policy.
In short, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock says she is yet to be convinced inflation is on a sustainable path back to target and further interest rate rises could not be ruled out as the bank seeks to curb price rises stoking the nation’s cost-of-living crisis.
“Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time of excess demand, and while the labour market remains tight,” the board statement said.
This translates into higher rates for longer, which was not what the market wanted to hear!
Do not expect a rate cut soon. Plan accordingly.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth. Markets are rising, thanks mainly to AI related stocks, while expectations of rate cuts are being pushed out. More broadly, are returns able to justify current valuations, and which sectors are the most interesting ahead.
Original stream with chat here: https://youtube.com/live/lqYE35qTatw
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This is my regular weekly market update.
Investors hate surprises and we got many this week – to the point where I begin to wonder whether markets are fundamentally broken as they were driven higher by good results from some of the magnificent seven, despite the shock revelation of mounting losses from commercial property by little-known banks in New York and Tokyo. And then the US jobs number came in so hot, as to lift bond yields while Central Bankers this week played a cautious hand, suggesting that they need to see more evidence before they start cutting rates, against market expectations.
Let’s start with commercial property. The problems particularly the office sector are well known: a combination of remote work and ageing buildings has pushed up vacancy rates and pushed down valuations; office property values in the US fell more than 20 per cent last year.
That’s a problem for landlords that must refinance loans against commercial property; about $US2.2 trillion of loans from the US and European commercial real estate sectors will come due between now and 2025.
US property billionaire Barry Sternlicht told a conference this week the US office property sector was worth $US3 trillion, and now it’s worth $US1.8 trillion. “There’s $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is.” At least some is in America’s regional banks, where commercial property loans account for about 30 per cent of all loans, compared with 6.5 per cent at large US banks.
Regional US lender New York Community Bancorp and Japan’s Aozora revealed problems with commercial property loans and dropped their share prices significantly underscored a critical question: is this the start of something bigger? Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says that even if banks holding this debt can cope with the losses, it crimps their ability to lend to other businesses.
But if there’s one broader lesson from the sudden re-emergence of commercial property fears, then it’s this: we still haven’t cleared out the excesses that built up in the era of very low interest rates, and were compounded during the pandemic period of extreme froth.
The world is now so indebted, and so financialised, that these cycles aren’t allowed to occur. With “households and corporates becoming hooked on leverage”, we can’t let bubbles pop because they’re “the essence of our economies”.
This is why investors are cheering the prospect of rate cuts with such gusto. And it’s why the fear of higher-for-longer interest rates – which the Federal Reserve reminded the world of on Thursday by killing off hopes of a March cut – is still real.
“The market has been horribly wrong about the near-term trajectory of Fed policy and this is another instance where that’s the case,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab in New York.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/