Category: Home Prices

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we make our predictions for 2024 and discuss the latest property trends.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Five Reasons Why Home Prices Will Fall in 2024!

In this show, we examine the main reasons why it is likely property prices will fall next year – this is a counterpoint to my earlier show which went through the Five reasons why they will rise – as trotted out by the property spruikers.

In summary, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.

And let’s be clear, the great Australian dream of owning a home is now totally out of reach, and many who were pulled into the market in recent years are in strife, to the point where rental costs have gone though the roof, and tent cities are becoming a thing. The very soul of Australia is decaying, unfortunately, that is unless you are fortunate enough to have family wealth or an existing property portfolio, which could now potentially fall in value.

Of course, the actual trajectory of home prices will vary across states, locations and types of property, and averages mask important differences. Which is why in our modelling we go granular – to a post code level, and also consider various scenarios based of the relative weightings of the positive drivers to prices we discussed yesterday, and the downward drivers we looked at today. So the answer is: it depends.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Five Reasons Why Home Prices Will Rise In 2024!

In this show, I will explore 5 reasons why home prices in Australia could rise in 2024.

If you take, low supply, high demand, easing lending, Government support and RBA/APRA stability concerns, the potential for home prices, especially houses to rise in 2024 seems pretty strong.

But in my next show, I will look at the arguments on the other side of the argument, because as you may have guessed, there are also a series of coherent arguments as to why prices might go sideways or fall!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Its Tony Locantro’s Christmas Cracker…

This is an edited version of a live Christmas discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, as we reflect on the markets over the past year, and look ahead into 2024.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Its Edwin’s Christmas Cracker…

This is an edited version of a live Christmas discussion with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we reflected on the property market over the past year, and look ahead into 2024.

We covered underquoting, property price trends, auctions, service charges and granny flats as well as the risks from EV’s.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

A Year Of Contradictions: With Tarric Brooker…

In our final Friday afternoon chat, for the year Journalist Tarric Brooker and I look back at 2023, with all its ups and downs, and consider the year ahead, which Schrödinger’s cat like could go down quite different paths.

And we look at the most burning question: When Could Australian Interest Rates Be Cut?

Tarric’s slides and articles is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/the-most-burning-question-answered.

Thanks to all those who follow and subscribe, and please like and share the show. We will be back in 2024 for more charts and chat.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Kiwi’s More Bullish On Home Prices, Despite…

Despite the recent recessionary news from New Zealand, low consumer confidence and high interest rates with floating rates around 8.63%, the latest ASB Housing Confidence survey shows that “for the first time in eighteen months, more New Zealanders expect house prices to increase than decrease”. Aucklanders continue to be the most bullish in their house price expectations with a net 39% anticipating prices will rise.

They say more bullish housing market sentiment is very much a New Zealand-wide story. All of the regions we survey are anticipating prices will rise by a net margin of 30-40%. While the housing demand/supply balance varies from region to region, other factors are likely to be driving prices higher – the likelihood mortgage rates are close to peaking and the prospect of a more stimulatory government policy regime – are national in scope.

They conclude, “With recent data generally showing prices no longer falling, Kiwis tend to think the housing market has reached a turning point” Despite this, There’s been little change in the net balance of Kiwis who think now is a good time to buy a house, with that figure unchanged at 6%. Still, that’s a far cry from the mood of the market over much of last year, where by a 20-30% margin, respondents felt it was a bad time to buy.

But the key to this expectation is the high migration flows.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from Edwin Almedia, our property insider, as we look at the latest “announcables” relating to housing and migration… how much is smoke and mirrors? The latest from the Treasurer makes the point!

The outlook is higher construction costs, a tilt towards migrants with more capacity to buy property, and the risk of more low quality construction, as high-rise height limits are relaxed.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Kiwi’s Yet To See Higher Rates Thanks To Migration?

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Wednesday in Wellington. This was as expected by most economists. But the central bank has been spooked by stronger near-term growth that’s being driven by the return of international students and immigrants after the pandemic.

As a result, there was a significant surprise, raising its forecasts for the OCR — implying a greater chance of an increase — and predicting no reduction until mid-2025.

This was the final policy meeting of the year and said it will hike them in 2024 if inflation doesn’t decelerate fast enough.

“We are confident we are restrictive with our monetary policy stance now and that provides us the ability to wait, to watch the data, but certainly highlight our willingness to move if we have to,” Governor Adrian Orr told reporters. “We are showing an upward bias to the interest rate, but it’s not a probability.”

Markets are out of kilter with the RBNZ, as Investors have in recent weeks ramped up bets that central banks globally, including the RBNZ, will pivot to rate cuts in the first half of 2024 as price pressures wane. But Orr said the RBNZ is concerned that inflation has been outside its 1-3% target band for so long, and that record immigration and a housing market recovery are adding to upside risks.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/