Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Another deep discussion, plus slides with journalist Tarric Brooker.
Thanks to all those who posed us questions (we did not get through them all, but will keep then for our next show…)
Who is the economy for – and what does the data tell us? The charts are at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-15th-september-2023 if you want to follow along.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the bulls in the market, silly bidding and vendors bids, and the latest “announcables” which will do very little to solve the housing disaster which awaits many.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
UK house prices fell at their sharpest annual pace since 2009 after soaring mortgage rates curtailed how much buyers could afford, Halifax, one of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders said today.
https://www.halifax.co.uk/media-centre/house-price-index.html
Halifax said the average value of a home fell 1.9% in August alone to £279,569, the sharpest monthly pace since November. It left prices 4.6% lower than a year ago when the value of UK property peaked.
The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times since late 2021 tame inflation, and that’s straining the finances of consumers already hit with higher food and energy bills.
As a result, the market is slowing, with year on year property transactions down 21.7%, mortgage approvals also down 21.7% and new buyer enquiries down 45%.
“We do expect further downward pressure on property prices through to the end of this year and into next, in line with previous forecasts,” Kim Kinnaird, director at Halifax Mortgages.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in the rental crisis, more demand from certain groups for property which can be subdivided, and more horror pictures of property gone wrong.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
New Zealand’s house price slump has given first-time homebuyers a welcomed leg up in their quest to purchase a property, but it may be a short-lived opportunity.
For a certain segment of the nation’s would-be homeowners — those armed with sizable deposits and solid incomes — 2023 has been a heartening year, with first-time buyers grabbing a record 26% share of the market in the third quarter, according to CoreLogic New Zealand. While an 18% fall in house prices between November 2021 and May this year made homeownership more obtainable, also working in their favor has been strong wage growth, a possible peak in interest rates, an easing of lending rules and government policy changes.
“This is a window of opportunity,” said independent New Zealand economist Tony Alexander. “This is good as it gets.” But Alexander has further words of caution for those looking to get on the housing ladder: The clock is ticking.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the idea of building up, not out, prefabricated housing, poor quality rental property, and the mythology of property listings. And at the end, a real horror show!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Edwin, our property insider and I explore the question of under quoting and include original footage showing it in action! We also discuss the interpretation of data, and the potential impact of the latest developments in China.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another deep dive into the data with Journalist Tarric Brooker as we explore the recent events in China, the housing story (and political announceables), the mortgage cliff (or not) and lots more.
Slides are available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-18th-august-2023
Tarric’s article which we mention is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-fixed-rate-mortgage-cliff
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Home prices are driven by a combination of demand where population growth thanks to high migration puts upward pressure on prices; supply where more property for sale puts downward pressure on prices, and availability of credit as the catalyst for transactions to occur.
Much of the debate is currently centered on supply side issues. As I discussed last week, Outgoing Governor Phil Lowe, urged governments at all levels to work together to address the problem of housing affordability. Notably, he dismissed rent controls as a short-term fix that would provide immediate relief by reducing the incentive to fix the key problem: supply.
“There aren’t short-term solutions here. The solution has to be putting in place a structure that makes the supply side of the housing market more flexible and that means zoning and planning deregulation and it means state and local governments being part of the solution.”
This means that first time buyer incentives, or rental support just make the problem, worst – something which I have highlighted over the years (and which by the way the Productive Commission also confirmed).
But my fear is that the un-defused credit bomb will be skirted around and as the supply side elephant is paraded through the streets. But it is the credit Elephant in the room which should be addressed, even if it shrinks bank balance sheets and profits. If not, nothing will fundamentally change and prices will remain as out of whack as they currently are.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers.
No surprise then that Britain’s property market showed signs of slowing to a crawl after a jump in mortgage costs reduced both buyer demand and the volume of sales. The figures add to evidence that the housing market is weakening after the quickest series of increases in interest rates lifted the cost of mortgages. Lenders including Nationwide and Halifax say property prices are falling, and some expect a peak-to-trough slump of 10% to 12% is “very likely.”
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey for July 2023 says at the national level, new buyer enquiries posted a figure of -45%, like last month’s figure of -46%. As a result, this metric continues to signal a sharp downturn in buyer demand following the latest escalation in mortgage interest rates. When viewed at the level of the English regions and the four nations, all parts of the UK display a firmly negative return for new buyer enquiries over the month.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/