This is an edited version of a live discussion with Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, Leith van Onselen, who is also the co-founder of Macrobusiness. Given the raft of property related announceables from the politicians, will it make any difference, or are we set for a slow-down, or worse?
Original stream with live chat here: https://youtube.com/live/zRxdM8_o8JE
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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
More from our property insider as Edwin and I look at the high-rise push, and consider the consequences, touch on the stranded properties still on the market, and discussion the latest misdirection from the Government.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The latest news from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest moves from Government (including erecting statues!!) news from China, and the latest data. Things continue to show a gap between strategy and reality, as negative gearing questions emerge again!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
In our latest show we kick around the recent events which question where property is going (depending on your point of view). Unbelievable!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 16.7% decline nationally from the market peak reached in 2021. This has taken real inflation-adjusted house prices back to their pre-pandemic level at the start of 2020.
But in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 0.25% and has signalled that significant further cuts would be made over the next 18 month. Business confidence took a leg up, bouncing to a net 51% positive from just 6% in response, banking on the end of the recession which has gripped the country.
Net Migration is also falling away rapidly, according to statistics New Zealand, and we are seeing more property coming on market with inventories up by 30% compared with last year, while sales volumes are down compared with last year and more property being subsequently withdrawn from market failing to find a buyer at their desired asking price.
So net net, it seems likely that as we go into spring and summer in New Zealand, demand might be higher thanks to lower rates but offset by lower migration, while supply is higher but transaction volumes are lower. Which begs the question, are we seeing the property market turning?
Well, the latest report, or should that be marketing document from the REINZ for August shows “signs of increased confidence, optimism and activity compared to the previous year. While the overall sales volume slightly declined, several regions reported notable increases in activity, and year-on-year listing numbers continue to rise”.
All up, its probably too soon to talk about an uptick in property values, but there may well be more property coming on to the market, and an uptick in sales to boot. Further rate cuts will help, and of course the loser regulations on investment property may also assist, but migration driven demand is falling.
Its probably way too early to declare victory, for now. REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said August provided a sense of confidence and positivity to the property market. I would remain more cautious. Auckland still seems to be more exposed while some South Island markets though smaller are more positive. And there is considerable uncertainty ahead.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this weeks edition property insider Edwin Almeida looks around Albo’s investment property which is on the market to highlight some important issues around building inspections, plus we discuss the Misinformation Bill while we still can and also look at a horrid case of underquoting.
Truth is, whether you are a vendor looking to sell, or a buyer wanting to buy, it is vital to do due diligence on the way through. Not doing so can cost thousands!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The mythology that home prices always rise has been busted before, because the high-level indices which are the fixation of the media, ignore the real variations, at a granular level.
The latest data from Corelogic shows that at the aggregate level there were small falls in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, and Melbourne, while there were stronger rises in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth (especially Perth) and a small rise in Sydney.
But now, the people at Corelogic who release one of the main indicators of prices included in their Housing Chart Pack, the September ‘Chart of the Month’ which takes a granular look at value falls over the three months to August from a quarterly study of 3,655 suburbs across the country and found that house prices in almost one-third (29.2 per cent) had fallen. In comparison, in the three months to August last year prices had dropped in 17.2 per cent of suburbs. They say that Melbourne (79.1%) and regional Victorian suburbs (73.8%) made up the majority of falls over the quarter. Values also decreased across more than half of the suburbs in Hobart (54.3%), Darwin (51.2%), and Canberra (51.6%), while all suburbs in Perth saw values rise over the quarter.
The company said declines were becoming more common as high interest rates as well as cost of living and affordability challenges continued.
So, what’s ahead then? Well of course this depends on the trajectory of interest rates, remembering that the current higher rates have depressed the typical borrowing capacity of the first-time buyer by as much as 40% from just a couple of years back. Inflation in Australia remains significantly higher than in many other countries, so the RBA is sticking to its view there will be no rate cuts anytime soon.
To try and highlight the potential sensitivities of interest rates, we run three scenarios, and look three years out, to illustrate the sensitivities across units and houses by state.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the findings from our surveys and models as we look at the latest in mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress across Australia. We will have our post code engine online so you can suggest specific post codes to examine.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
More this week from our property insider Edwin Almedia, on the dynamics of the markets, as listing rise and interest rates stay high. We also look at the battle between the RBA and The Treasurer, and at the Grenfell Tower UK report which really spotlights the severe defects across the building system and which is directly relevant to Australia too!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
In my latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, we look back at the recent stoush between the Reserve Bank and the Government as inflation remains sticky, and the Treasurer says Government spending is helping to bring inflation down.
Plus, thanks to Tarric’s excellent slides we parse the latest data and delve into the mechanics of high migration, home prices, and falling real GDP per hour worked.
You can see the slides here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-6th-september
Here is the article Tarric referred to in the show: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/burnout-economics-and-aussie-household
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
