Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the state of play relating to the Australian economy, housing and finances with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness.
Where are interest rates headed, and what will the fall out be?
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The current storm in New Zealand will hopefully clear in the next few days. But the other storm – falling home sales and prices in reaction to higher mortgage rates, will take time to work through. The RBNZ has not yet finished the tightening cycle.
So we look at the latest REINZ figures, which reveals a significant slowdown.
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In a special edition of Edwin’s Rant, we are joined by property analysts Louis Christopher from SQM Research. https://sqmresearch.com.au/
We look at the latest statistics and property trends and discuss where the markets are headed.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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https://youtube.com/live/FvMrqS2nj_I
Join me for a live discussion about the state of play relating to household finances, stress and scenarios. We will explore the latest from our surveys and models, and you can ask a question live! We will have our mapping tools and post code engine online.
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In our latest Monday chat, we look at the NSW proposal to match prospective renters with older homeowners (what could possibly go wrong?), the latest listings numbers, and the surprising demand for some property. And very important, we say to look up!
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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Evidence provided by the RBA to Parliament yesterday underscores the $350 billion of mortgages across some 800,000 facilities which are expected to reset from fixed (~2% interest rates) to ~6% variable rates in 2023.
This could have a significant impact on households and their spending patterns to say nothing of rising mortgage stress.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with the developer behind Spachus – a visual mapping tool that tracks home prices across the main areas of Australia. We chat about the philosophy behind the approach, which is powered by data from Domain, and we also demo the functionality (which is continuing to evolve).
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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The latest data from Core Logic confirmed more home price falls across both capital cities and the regions. Hobart and Brisbane are hit hardest, and regional areas are hanging on a little better. But even Perth and Adelaide are now going down.
And latest forecasts from CBA are still talking about more falls. Unless we see forms of Government intervention, such as APRA cutting the 3% buffer, the RBA cutting rates, or more fiscal incentives.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we celebrate the Year of the Rabbit.
Are we revisit the cooling off period question in the context of property purchase.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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We look at the question of distressed listings and sales, which appear to be quite low at the moment. Some therefore argue that things in the property market are just fine.
However, apart from the question of how distressed sales are defined and identified, the truth is that some households are being given the option to sell as a normal not distressed sale. This is better for the bank, and potentially might be something which given enough equity in the property is worth considering. But it is really important to get the right independent advice first!
Bottom line is low distressed sale counts are not a signal of a buoyant market.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/