Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Our latest property-related chat with Edwin Almeida, our property insider as we look at the latest from China in terms of new migrants, listing numbers, real estate agent behaviour, and the shape of the market. And we have Edwin’s latest hot tip.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In recent years we have seen a swathe of “initiatives” from state and federal governments with the aim to encouraging and helping more first-time buyers into the housing market. The previous Government claimed they had helped “hundreds of thousands” into the property market.
The latest ABS statistics shows that the number of First Time Buyers is falling again – and the part peaks map directly onto Government “stimulus” measures.
The latest is the Albanese Government release of 40,000 new places under the Federal Government’s Home Guarantee Scheme, which will enable eligible first home buyers to purchase a property with a deposit of as little as 2% or 5%.
This as a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia is aggressively increasing rates and house prices are expected to plunge by between 10% and 20%, depending on the forecast. What could possibly go wrong?
In fact, the evidence suggest that these schemes are ineffective. Indeed, the long-term trends in terms of home ownership shows that across Australia, a smaller proportion of people own their own home, and those that do have bigger mortgages for longer. The latest Census data, which is still in the process of being released continues to confirm this trend.
Home ownership rates in Australia have declined over several decades, and the likelihood of attaining home ownership by age 30 has fallen substantially. Go back two decades and the average age of a first time buyer was 27 year, today its 34 years and rising based on my surveys. In addition, especially in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, first home buyers (FHBs) are now buying fewer houses and more units, and evidence shows that more are receiving parental assistance.
Also while mortgage repayment affordability stress has been cushioned by falling interest rates until 2022, mortgage deposit requirements have risen with prices and become an increasingly serious constraint—far more so in Sydney and Melbourne than elsewhere.
I have long argued that this First Home Owner grants are bribes which distort the market, lift prices and are more designed to assist the construction sector. In other words, First Time Buyer Grants are a con.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat on a Friday afternoon with Journalist Tarric Brooker, covering the latest economic and financial news, courtesy of his famous slides. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-8th-july-2022
You can follow him on Twitter @AvidCommentator
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at some more property repricing, as vendor exceptions are being adjusted now, and using our analytics tool highlight some of the common themes which come to the surface.
Do not believe the spruikers, many properties are being repriced lower!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join us for a live discussion about the current state of the markets with Chris Bates from Wealthful, on the day the RBA will lift rates again. You can ask a question live.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In our latest Monday Rant we look at the latest from our Wee-Chatters, the latest numbers, and “innovative” property solutions, as rate rise and pressure on households build.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest figures from CoreLogic show prices for homes are easing, and in some places falling. We look at the data, in the light of pressures on households, and rising stress as reported in our latest surveys. And we consider the future trajectory, sheeting the shape of price changes and wealth directly at the door of RBA monetary policy
[CONTENT]
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:25 June Price Moves
1:50 Major Cities
2:50 Regionals
3:50 Listings and Sales
5:50 Rentals
7:50 Outlook
12:00 Commentary
13:00 Latest Mortgage Stress
13:50 RBA will influence falls or gains
17:45 Conclusion and close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Our latest property chat with Edwin Almeida. A special discussion on the “levers” which might be used to try to prop property prices up, as the rate of fall increases.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Rising interest rates are already putting more pressure on households and now banks are reducing their ability to lend at high multiples with an effective reduction of “Borrowing Power” of up to 20%. Combined, this will put more stress on property owners and renovators.
APRA has written to the banks stressing the importance of sound mortgage lending. Better late than never!
WA may well see some of the biggest changes.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A quick look at the very gloomy New Zealand Household Confidence Index.
The News From New Zealand is getting worse and worse (such that next years election result will now be really interesting). The latest is from the Westpac Mcdermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey results released this week.
Confidence among New Zealand households has plummeted, dropping to its lowest levels since we began surveying consumers back in 1988. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell 13 points in the June quarter to a level of 78.7. Confidence has only come close to these sorts of lows twice before – first during the recession in the early-1990s, and then again during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/09.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/