Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited version of my latest live discussion with Tony Locantro, Investment Manager at Alto Capital as we look at the current state of the markets, and the consequences of the rapid rate hikes and rising debt. Tony has a unique way of seeing things, and his insights are always welcome!
You can ask a question live.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More coherence from our property insider as we continue to debunk some of the property myths, and focus in on the data.
This week, we touch on official and unofficial scams…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The ABS says the total value of residential dwellings in Australia rose by $196.8 billion to $10,397.1 billion in the past quarter.
But these gross values are misleading because they are not equally distributed across all households. To illustrate this, I extracted current value data from my household surveys and created a distribution chart across all households, including both investment and owner-occupied holdings, based on a mark to market at end February 2024.
So we can see, standing back, that while some households will be feeling wealthy and celebrating the massive rise in home prices in recent years, many others are excluded, will be paying more for a rental, and will have very little or no financial assets at all.
So, it seems that Australia’s egalitarian roots have been sacrificed on the property population Ponzi. No wonder, those is charge do not want to rock the boat – the truth is there is a majority of potential voters benefiting from the property game. Its all a bit of a mess.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
PEXA just released their second edition of their Cash Purchases Report which highlights residential property transactions that were funded entirely with cash. That is, residential properties purchased without a home loan. The share of mortgage-free transactions rose by 2.9 percentage points to 28.5 per cent of all home sales.
And this is important, because it helps to explain the apparent contradiction between the rise in property prices at a time when mortgage interest rates have also risen, a weird combination to say the least.
Some migrants, from the near 1 million arriving, come with sufficient cash to buy, as well as many downsizing Australians who have enjoyed the capital growth in recent years. So there is an ever larger portion of buyers that will be relatively unaffected by rising interest rates. This is another example of unequal access to housing, at the expense of mortgaged borrowers, especially in a higher interest rate environment.
Mortgage borrowers are being punished for the exuberance in demand for cash buyers. And more broadly, interest rates will remain higher for longer, because the interest rate lever is less powerful which gives the RBA and every Australian an inflation headache.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of my live discussion about the latest from our surveys, as we look at mortgage, rental, investor and financial stress across the country, down to a post code level.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest from the market. More supply questions, as construction costs rise, while some plan to offer zero deposit loans to attract voters.
Meantime the rental crisis deepens and opinion is divided in the WeeChat sphere.
The craziness continues…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The desperate quest for housing is playing out across Australia, with renters fighting to find an affordable place, and being confronted with significant rent hikes, while others are trying to buy their way into the property market, despite tight lending conditions, and are fighting directly with some property investors who are still hoovering up more property as well as new migrants who are still arriving in their thousands. It’s a mess, and many are getting crusted in the process.
So, the latest data underscores the issue as the ABS released their lending indicators on Thursday, and they reported that for total housing new loan volumes fell 3.9% to $25.1b, after a fall of 4.1% in December. But it was still 8.5% higher compared to a year ago. Incomes of course are not growing at anything like that!
Within that, the total for owner-occupier housing fell 4.6% to $15.9b but was 3.4% higher compared to a year ago, while for investor housing new loans fell 2.6% to $9.2b but was 18.5% higher compared to a year ago.
The mortgage cliff, where cheap sub-2% loans were reset to much higher rates is coming towards the end of the road, although CBA also warned on Wednesday that debts servicing costs will continue to rise as the remaining cheap pandemic fixed rate mortgages reset to variable. And some of the cheapest fixes are yet to expire, according to my surveys. In addition, some cheap deals seem to have been extended on their original terms for some borrowers so the funding pressures will remain.
All up, the ABS said In January 2024 in seasonally adjusted terms, the value of external refinancing for total housing fell 5.0% to $16.1b and was 19.5% lower compared to a year ago, while for owner-occupier housing new loans fell 7.4% to $10.3b and was 24.3% lower compared to a year ago and for investor housing they fell fell 0.5% to $5.8b and was 9.1% lower compared to a year ago. One reason apart from the cliff problem is that lenders have reduced competitive cashback offers.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
More from our property insider Edwin Almedia, as we look at the latest from the property markets, as markets show signs of stress into Easter.
Things on the ground are rather different from the stories reported elsewhere.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Our latest surveys to the end of February reveals the current state of Household Finances in Australian as measured by cash flow. A record 73.3% of those living in the rental sector are under pressure, while just over half of those with a mortgage are also in net negative cash flow. All up around 48% of households or 4.7 million families are struggling. The causes are clear to see, with costs of living still outstripping real incomes, high mortgage interest rates thanks to RBA monetary policy and rental cost driven sky high. Massive net migration, and bad government housing policies have created this disaster, which will likely be with us for decades. Housing affordability is shot.
So, in today’s show I will walk through the latest findings, ahead of a live show during which we will examine the data at a post code level. That show will be on Tuesday 12th March 2024.
But here we examine how we measure cash flow stress, examine the latest results across mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress, and also look at our price scenarios for the months ahead, alongside our estimates of mortgage defaults in the next 12 months.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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More from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in property news across the rental and sales markets.
The rental sector continues to weaken, even as properties listed for sale rises, but Sydney and Melbourne are headed in very different directions.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.