Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.
The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.
And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Domain has released its Rental Report for March, which delivered more bad news for tenants, on top of the data I released recently which showed three quarters of those renting already have cash-flow issues. Younger families and first-generation Australians are being hit really hard, but as I discussed in my live show, other household categories are also being caught in the rental squeeze. And despite the rise in rents, some investors are selling due to poor net returns.
With net overseas migration forecast to remain historically high, albeit lower than last year, Australia’s rental crisis will continue, even if vacancy rates and rental inflation ease a little.
As a result, more Australians will be plunged into rental stress, group housing, or homelessness.
The solution is to cut net overseas migration hard to a level well below the nation’s capacity to build homes and infrastructure.
The other factor no one is talking about is that renters under extreme pressure are being coerced into buying property, even if its poor quality or in the wrong area, just to exit the rental sector and try to get some control. With borrowing power down about 40-50%, these households are leveraging up, as see by the larger loan balances against income. But this could be an issue of jumping from the frying pan into the fire!
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is my edit of our latest economic update with Nuggets News. We look at the latest across markets, and talk about some of the big picture issues which are driving the agenda.
We touch on the US inflation (before the figures were released), as well a Australian property and some of the current waves of regulation locally.
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Wherever you look, the news is not good for those wishing to see housing affordability relief.
First demand for rentals continues to be powered by the overseas influx. New data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that at the end of February, the number of international students in Australia hit a record high of 713,144, whereas the number of temporary migrants in Australia hit a record high of 2.8 million (nearly 2.4 million excluding visitors).
Or put it another way, the number of student visa holders in Australia is running around 80,000 above the pre-pandemic peak, while the number of temporary visa holders excluding visitors is around 400,000 above the pre-pandemic peak.
Then we can turn to the question of new housing supply. I have covered before the fact that the country is littered with half-completed construction projects, many of which are competing for labour and resources with the large number of government and commercial projects also currently running. This crowded out home builders as the major projects sucked in labour and drove up its cost.
But we also continue to see more building firms going under. In the light of this, perhaps we should not be surprised that the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January, according to data released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
An important discussion about the future of cash across Australia with Robbie Barwick from The Australian Citizens Party.
The CEO of CBA Matt Comyn floated the idea of limiting cash transactions to $500, so we pull this apart in the context of the Use Cash campaign which ran successfully on the 2nd April.
See my earlier show for detail of that campaign, and the Senate interrogation of the RBA which we also discuss. The Fight For Cash Just Got Terminally Serious! https://youtu.be/LiNSH7I_8xs
Despite cash being legal tender in Australia, surprisingly it is legal for businesses to refuse to accept it provided that they inform consumers of their stance before any “contract” for the supply of goods or services is entered into.
The war on cash has taken an interesting turn, with the RBA being questioned by the Senate Inquiry into Regional Bank Branch closures, and claiming the use of cash had fallen, but frankly on thin and filtered evidence; while Armaguard, Australia’s only cash-in-transit business is facing the prospect of collapsing due to the claimed declining use of cash. The RBA, which regulates the payments industry and is responsible for printing money is also involved in the crisis talks.
And a social media campaign, led by the Cash is King Facebook group is calling on Aussies to withdraw and use cash next Tuesday, April 2, in protest against the shift to digital payments. The protest is aimed at showing Australia’s banks and retailers that there is still a demand for the use of cash in society. That is, if you can still find an ATM.
So, action on Tuesday to grab some cash could be an important step on the road to saving cash for All Australians who want to use it, despite pressure from the Government who is responding to huge pressure from the commercial banks. This in turn puts massive pressure on the current Senate review, who is scheduled to hold one more community hearing on Bribie Island on the 16th April. Will the committee who has laid bare the issues of branch closures and removal of cash come good or hook their final report like the earlier Royal Commission Inquiry into Financial Services, which exposed major issues through their hearings, only to turn to water in their final report and recommendations, which allowed the banks to behave business as usual. This time all eyes will be on the Senate.
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Remember the parable of the frog, who slowly gets cooked to death, in a pot as the temperature rises – well, the same in true for Australians, as civil liberties such as the use of cash, are removed, even as the digital architecture for future control gets put in place. You can see parallels elsewhere round the world, and aligned with the agenda of several high profile non-elected bodies like the World Economic Forum – of “you will own nothing and be happy” fame.
Australia’s Digital ID Bill 2023 was initially introduced to the Senate on November 30, 2023, and has since undergone a Senate inquiry and brief consultation period before this week being pushed through the Senate without debate. Despite assurances of voluntariness and promises to simplify citizens’ lives, the Labor government has faced backlash for the lack of scrutiny given to the bill.
And there is of course the wider, story here potentially linking digital ID with Central Bank Digital Currency and Social Scores, perhaps enabling the idea peddled by the World Economic Forum and other non-elected global entities, that we the people can be better controlled in terms of what we can, say, or even purchase. So you value your privacy, liberty and the rule of law, the Digital ID Bill must be defeated, time to put pressure back on the house of representatives when the amended bill comes back.
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This is an edited version of a live discussion with Cameron K. Murray, Author of The Great Housing Hijack which reveals how vested interests pull the strings on the property market in Australia, and offers a solution for genuinely affordable housing for those who need it.
With 120,000 people homeless each night and one in five low-income private renters spending more than half their income on rent, it is clear Australia urgently needs a housing policy change.
For anyone who wants to truly understand the housing market in Australia, The Great Housing Hijack is essential reading. Drawing on the best housing policies around the world, Murray shows how Australia could create a genuinely affordable housing program without compromising the interests of existing property owners.
Murray argues that even if more housing were built, the average household would not end up spending any less on housing.
Murray proposes bypassing the private market altogether with a scheme called HouseMate. The federal government would buy or repurpose land, build homes, then sell them at a discounted price to Australians who do not own property.
Perhaps the most controversial argument in The Great Housing Hijack is that planning and zoning rules do not change how much new housing is built, just the location.
Join the debate – you can ask a question live.
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Another important discussion with Edwin Almeida, our property insider. Not only has the price of coco tripled ahead of Easter, but listings are down, despite more property investors listing, while the gap between property demand and supply widens, as more migrants seek to buy.
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I deep dive on the Australian Housing Crisis, as conclude that there is no easy fix, thanks to generations of bad policy and active intervention. So who are the winners and losers?
Tarric slides are here if you want to follow along: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-22nd-march-2024
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