Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!

The NSW government has already announced plans last month to build more than 200,000 homes and focus on higher density living by building up, not out. But now NSW Premier Chris Minns says the state will not meet its housing target, but is doing its best to boost supply.

The plan includes 138,000 new homes at rezoned sites in 31 suburbs, and 47,800 homes near eight major transport hubs, with the latter to be completed over the next 15 years.

Those suburbs include Bankstown, Bays West, Bella Vista, Crows Nest, Homebush, Hornsby, Kellyville and Macquarie Park.

The government will offer developers in those zones a fast-tracked approvals process, called a state significant development, to ensure apartments are built quickly.

It will be offered to developments over $60 million, and construction must start within two years of approval.

The government also intends to relocate Rosehill Racecourse and replace it with 25,000 homes as part of the plan.

But Housing industry insiders say they are not surprised by the NSW premier’s admission that the state will not meet its housing targets agreed to just last year.

The target, which was set out by the federal government in August, would see an average of 75,000 new dwellings a year over the next five years. It is part of a broader plan to build 1.2 million homes across Australia during that period.

Premier Chris Minns said the government would fall short of the goal but was working on building as many houses and units as possible to alleviate housing shortages and skyrocketing costs.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Put Interest Rates Up, And Reform Taxes Now!

The IMF just dropped a bombshell on Australia, saying that Interest rates should be hiked even higher and the Australian governments should slash spending to avoid stoking inflation. And proper tax reform was essential as an optimal tax package for growth and equity should rely more on the GST, take pressure off personal income tax paid by workers and crack down on capital gains tax breaks.

Now, let me say the IMF has a particular free-market neo-liberal western economic spin, but their comments are pretty damming and need to be taken seriously. Yet of course the Australian polies were quick to claim the IMF somehow endorsed their current policy settings – what – read the report Albo!

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The People Versus Financial Tyranny: With Robbie Barwick

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens party.

The Senate will be delivering their report on Regional Banking, and it will be important to ensure access to cash is protected in an era of CBDC. And we need to ensure the Government does not outsource its fiscal and monetary authority to the Reserve Bank. Behind these issues is the question of power, and tyranny. Who is setting the agenda, and who is in control?

Original stream with chat replay here: https://youtube.com/live/7Or8ais2WxI

https://citizensparty.org.au/

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It’s All Happening – Again! With Tarric Brooker…

My first Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, Journalist and Chart-Meister.

Will recent developments force a replay of the recent inflation crisis and keep rates higher for longer. If so, what are the potential implications politically and economically?

His charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-january-2024

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Bitcoin Gets The SEC’s Spot Tick – But Caveat Emptor!

The Securities and Exchange Commission has for the first time approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, a move heralded as a landmark event for the roughly $1.7 trillion digital-asset sector that will broaden access to the largest cryptocurrency on Wall Street and beyond.

Now much is resting on the concept that the futures market has already brought crypto assets sufficiently into the financial mainstream.

The SEC was frankly bounced into this decision in response to the loss of some critical legal cases, and puts Bitcoin ever closer to existing financial services players. This does not necessarily mitigate risk.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler said “While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot Bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse Bitcoin,”. “Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”

Crypto zealots have for years argued that a so-called spot fund that invests directly in Bitcoin would be beneficial to investors and would help bring the industry closer to the more highly regulated world of traditional finance. It also suggests a sort of milestone of maturity for the relatively nascent industry, where skirmishes with regulators came to a climax after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire highlighted risks lurking in the industry.

But of course, by definition, the mainstream approval this represents cuts right across the original ideology of Bitcoin already compromised by the significant use of derivatives, and becoming ever more controlled by large financial institutions and regulators.

Even after Gensler went to such lengths to say that the SEC wasn’t giving any seal of approval to Bitcoin, the odds remain that this will expose many more people to crypto’s risks and opportunities. So Caveat Emptor! Let The Buyer Beware!

Peak LNG Stupidity!

Bloomberg reported yesterday that the US has become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas for the first time, with 2023 shipments overtaking leading suppliers Australia and Qatar.

The US exported 91.2 million metric tons of LNG in 2023, a record for the country, according to data through Dec. 31 compiled by Bloomberg. The expanded output was due to last year’s restart of Freeport LNG in Texas, which had been shuttered for months following a June 2022 fire and explosion. Qatar, the top LNG supplier in 2022, saw its volumes shrink for the first time since at least 2016, with a 1.9% decline dropping the nation into third spot for shipments of the super-chilled fuel. Australia ranked second, with exports that were little changed from 2022.

Unlike East Coast Australia, the US has a domestic gas reservation scheme in place, which has mostly succeeded in keeping domestic gas prices low.

And the mooted A$80 Billion Deal between Woodside Energy and Santos could also put more upward pressure on Australian domestic gas prices.

“Both Santos and Woodside are material domestic gas producers, which may create market concentration concerns,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note.

It makes no sense to give any member of the gas export cartel – Origin, Woodside, Santos, EXXON or Shell – greater control of gas import volumes. Remember East Coast Electricity prices are driven by the marginal cost of LNG.

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My Top DFA Shows Of 2023!

Well, the numbers are now in so today I am going to review the performance of our channel over the last year, and specifically highlight the top 10 most watched shows.

I want to thank you for being part of the DFA community, watching our shows, and supporting us by subscribing, liking the shows, and sharing them widely. Its greatly appreciated and I want to celebrate the momentum we created together. Especially around some of our campaigns, most notably addressing the issue of bank branch closures and the need to be able to access cash.

None of these top ten were my live shows, which generally run each Tuesday evening. Generally live events tend to do less well on YT compared with recorded shows. But the great positive of live is the audience participation, which is key to building and nourishing the community. So a quick word of thanks, to all those who turn out regularly to support our live events.

And if you stand back, its clear that housing related shows rate well, as do the regular chats with Tarric and his slides, and some of the more philosophical shows such as Down the Rabbit Hole and the BRICS discussion, also did well.

If you have specific subjects you would like me to cover, or guest suggestions, drop them in the chat!

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we make our predictions for 2024 and discuss the latest property trends.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Five Reasons Why Home Prices Will Fall in 2024!

In this show, we examine the main reasons why it is likely property prices will fall next year – this is a counterpoint to my earlier show which went through the Five reasons why they will rise – as trotted out by the property spruikers.

In summary, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.

And let’s be clear, the great Australian dream of owning a home is now totally out of reach, and many who were pulled into the market in recent years are in strife, to the point where rental costs have gone though the roof, and tent cities are becoming a thing. The very soul of Australia is decaying, unfortunately, that is unless you are fortunate enough to have family wealth or an existing property portfolio, which could now potentially fall in value.

Of course, the actual trajectory of home prices will vary across states, locations and types of property, and averages mask important differences. Which is why in our modelling we go granular – to a post code level, and also consider various scenarios based of the relative weightings of the positive drivers to prices we discussed yesterday, and the downward drivers we looked at today. So the answer is: it depends.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

A Death, A Legacy And A Quest…

On the 23rd December 2021 Gill, my wife of 28 years died as a result of exposure to Asbestos and the cruel disease of mesothelioma.

There are articles in a number of places, including The Daily Mail, about her story:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10341353/Husbands-farewell-Gillian-North-warned-home-renovators-died-asbestos-related-cancer.html

And her story is also told on the video I made, incorporating A Current Affair footage back in 2021.

In memory of her we continue to run Asbestos Awareness Australia, a charity Gill launched before her death, to help to raise awareness in the community of the scourge of asbestos, which still remains in about one home in three.

It kills several thousand people each year and around 800 of which are from mesothelioma in Australia. In 2022, it is estimated that there were 761 deaths from mesothelioma in Australia.

So, the legacy of Gills death is our commitment to continue to raise awareness of this pernicious product, continue to lobby Government for better reforms – Gill published a series of research papers on just this point – available from the Asbestos Awareness Australia web site, and the Quest is to ensure that ordinary Australians are better aware of the risks stemming from Asbestos.

And while its good to know that engineered stone, which has caused problems for those working in that industry is to be banned, Asbestos is the elephant in the room still killing thousands each year, and it’s in one third of homes across the country. And no, it is not just multiple exposures, one exposure to a few fibres is sufficient, and even undisturbed asbestos continues to deteriorate over time, so there is no such thing as safe asbestos if its left in situ. And it can take years for the disease to show.

Think Asbestos!

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