Category: Politics

Pulling Up The Drawbridge On Home Ownership!

One stunning chart which I keep coming back to is the change in income and home prices overtime. It shows simply that housing is becoming more and more unaffordable. We also know that more households have bigger mortgages and so are heavily exposed to higher rates, and that many will still have mortgages well into retirement. Our debt ratios are some of the most extreme across the world, as I have been reporting for years. Great for banks, as they reap interest payments, bad for society. In fact, I believe we are at the point where the drawbridge is being pulled up making it harder than ever to get on to the property ladder or stay there.

Few policies are more harmful to young Australians seeking a place to live than forcing them to compete for housing with hundreds of thousands of new migrants each year.

Future Australians will have to make do with cramped shoe box homes owned by corporations and landlords.

Essentially, the property ownership drawbridge is being progressively raised – but this is by design, not accident. I hope post the voice, Albo and Co will get serious about correcting their mistakes, but frankly I am not holding my breath.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

The latest edition with our property insider Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest “plans” to boost housing, celebrate a 60th anniversary, dissect the latest numbers, and explore why investor property is not working for so many investors as they chose to sell.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The RBA’s Third Phase Of Tightening, And What Happens Next…

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), Christopher Kent, gave an Address to Bloomberg on Wednesday where he expressed why the RBA is reluctant to lift the official cash rate further.

https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-ag-2023-10-11.html

The RBA is in its “third phase” of monetary policy tightening as it assesses the impact of interest-rate rises to date, he said. The current stage is “an opportunity to see how the economy and how the data is evolving,’’ he said, reiterating that further rate increases may still be needed.

Much of the presentation concerned the lags as monetary policy takes effect. Basically, the RBA expects further impacts on the economy as the lagged effects of the 4.0% of monetary tightening delivered over the past 18 months flows through.

A ‘built in’ monetary tightening in Australia is one reason why the RBA is reluctant to lift the official cash rate further. Australia’s monetary system will tighten on its own as more pandemic era fixed rate mortgages reset from rates of around 2% to variable rates of more than 6%.

But that means those with big mortgages are being worst hit, while others are still enjoying their savings buffers and will continue to spend.

And the question will be, whether the current settings will crush inflation, or whether more rate hikes are needed. As I discussed the other day, there are significant pressures on the RBA to lift further, and some economists are expecting another one or two hikes into 2024.

Either way, there is little rate relief on the horizon for the next year plus.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Household Finances And Mortgage Stress Update

This is an edit of a live discussion using data from our core market model. We look at the latest mortgage stress data, and answer viewers questions.

Which post codes are most impacted, and what are the implications?

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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!

The Good News Is Bad News Problem…

Wall Street’s main indexes were poised for a sharply lower open on Friday after a strong jobs report deepened fears that interest rates may stay elevated for an extended period.

The Labor Department’s report showed non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 jobs in September on a monthly basis, against expectations of 170,000 additions, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Unemployment rate stood at 3.8% against expectations of 3.7%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.2%, compared with estimates of 0.3%.

The S&P 500 eyed its fifth straight weekly fall, while the Dow is on track to decline for the third straight week.

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Laughing Or Weeping, We’re Back: With Tarric Brooker!

My latest Friday afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, as we look at the RBA’s latest Statement On Monetary Policy, and the recent Bond Market dynamics.

And we look at the economic fall out on households if rates go higher for longer. Tarric’s charts can be found at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-6th-october-2023

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Its Edwin’s Wednesday [Monday] Evening Property Rant!

A belated edition of our Monday evening rant with Edwin Almeida, our property insider. This week we explore the political shenanigans & follies, the latest numbers and some tips on beating the auction.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

More “Announcables” To Look Good And Do Little!

I have discussed before the spate of announcables from the current Government – events and releases which give the impression of taking bold actions which grab headlines, but which in reality signifies very little at all. Housing was a standout example, but now we have another, the jobs plan.

Which in fact was a scene resembling The Hollowmen. It took 260-pages and six cabinet ministers to announce the jobs plan, and according to Jim Chalmers he wants to reduce the non-inflationary jobless rate so 2.8 million people who are not working, or wanting to work more hours, can bolster the labour market and improve their wellbeing.

So, the federal government will put “full employment” at the heart of Australia’s policy frameworks and institutions, to drive down structural unemployment over time and keep unemployment as low as possible. And they say the benefits of a strong labour market are not equally shared.

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Are Pay Rises Chasing Inflation Higher?

In the UK, Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) is the highest we have seen since comparable records began in 2001. The Office for National statistics said In May to July 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%, the same as the previous three-month period and the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.

Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.5% in May to July 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. But we can see workers are chasing real wages growth, as inflation eases, just a little with annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for total pay up for the year by 1.2% and for regular pay a year on year rise of 0.6%.

In Australia, The Fair Work Commission released their latest data on Monday which revealed that average pay rises in new collective agreements in Australia have soared to a high of 4.7 per cent, closing in on inflation and putting pressure on wage forecasts. The increase is the highest average recorded since the commission’s data series began in mid-2022, surpassing previous highs of 4.4 per cent and is based on 174 deals lodged from August 12 to August 25, extended to 63,553 employees.

But with inflation at 6% on the quarter to June 2023, and the monthly series at 4.9%, on average workers are still going backwards in terms of real take home pay after inflation.

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The Banks’ Porkies Make Them Squeal! With Robbie Barwick

An important debrief on the past weeks Senate Inquiry into Regional Branch closures, use of cash and other banking issues, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.

Senate replay here: https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen/ParlView/video/1733879

The power of democracy at work!

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