Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
In my latest Friday chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, we parse the recent Central Bank decisions, and get below the surface to consider what lays beneath. And in Viewers questions, we look at mortgage and property values, listings, and inflation projections.
Slides are at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance-179?sd=pf
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my latest live show, in which Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party examine the latest in the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking Closures, the ASIC Inquiry, banks and corporates behaving badly and some of the broader geo-political risks in play.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest monthly CPI figures which were stronger than anticipated, and Phil Lowes’ outing in front of the Senate (maybe his last?).
It is highly likely that further rate increases are on the cards, despite the record high debt burden, acknowledge by the Governor. And whilst there was a focus on productivity improvement, the truth is, the war on wages growth continues.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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Set the latest falling building approvals from the ABS, against the rising population thanks to net migration, a rise in building company failures, and rising costs, and its a perfect storm. Housing construction is in a mess!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join me for a live Q&A show tonight with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.
We will examine the latest in the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking Closures, the ASIC Inquiry, banks and corporates behaving badly and some of the broader geo-political risks in play. You can ask a question live.
The bare bones of an agreement was announced late Saturday night in the US, and assuming its passed on the hill , the debt ceiling crisis looks like it has been postponed until 2025. As the US markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, we can expect Asian markets to react first! It is also a Bank Holiday in the UK!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest outlook for rates, inflation and recession.
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance-8eb
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 5.25% to 5.50%.
They said:
The combination of weaker demand and improved supply has reduced inflation in New Zealand. Annual consumers price inflation declined from 7.2% in the December 2022 quarter to 6.7% in the March 2023 quarter. Prices for some goods and services that change a lot — such as petrol prices and airfares — have also declined.
Inflation declined by more than expected, but it remains too high. While many measures of inflation expectations have declined in the last 3 months, they remain elevated. Most measures of persistent or ‘core’ inflation have stayed near recent peaks. Inflation is expected to take some time to return to the mid-point of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target range.
Inflationary pressure continues to be supported by a tight labour market, with employment above its maximum sustainable level. The unemployment rate remained very low at 3.4% in the March 2023 quarter. Although most indicators show that labour market pressures have eased since last year, they remain strong.
Overall, high interest rates are still needed to further slow demand. This will help to reduce upward pressure on prices, leading to lower headline inflation.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Federal Government has [finally] declared Buy Now Pay Later products as credit products and has outlined a path to regulation in the months ahead, recognizing that the products can harm customers.
Big players like CBA pushed the Government into a more gentle regime than I think is idea,, but at least its a step in the right direction. But two questions, will BNPL appear on credit files, and what about those thousands of customers of these products who are already in over the heads. We note from our surveys significant growth in use of these products as inflation and interest rate rises bite.
This is too little too late!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest Senate hearings on Regional Branch closures, and discuss the continued misdirection coming from the cost-cutting banks – justified – so called – by the migration to digital banking.
But as discussed during the hearings, the banks do not want to talk about what they are doing, and a peoples bank is required to offer a real alternative.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/