Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. We look at the latest data and discuss the implications.
His charts are at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-16th-september
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Queensland has been a state where property investors have traditionally made better returns on a net and gross basis, from investment property in the state, compared with those in New South Wales and Victoria.
To recap, gross investment returns is the ratio of current property market value compared with the current rental paid, assuming the property is fully let. The Net Investment return is a more real-world measure, which takes account of actual vacancy rates, cost of mortgage, maintenance, and management of the property. In our surveys, many property investors have no feel for their true net returns, clinging to the prospect of eternal capital gains.
Those in Victoria are worst placed, which explains the very strong interstate investment in Queensland, one reason why prices and rents had shot up in the past couple of years. But there is something afoot in Queensland, which could change this picture, possibly significantly.
Indeed, those following the AFR will have noted its fever pitch campaign against an Australian-first move whereby landholders will have to voluntarily disclose their interstate holdings in other states before being taxed for their Queensland holdings. These land tax changes were first announced in the 2021-22 budget update on 16 December 2021. Queensland Treasury has said the tax change will raise only $20 million a year from 2023-24 and impact about 10,000 landholders, most of whom who live interstate.
Investors are irate with the changes, saying they will drive investors out of Queensland as well as push up rents and that they felt like they were being taxed twice in two different states.
A spokesman for Mr Dick acknowledged this week the tax change would affect some Queensland investors.
So now Queensland owners are now working out how they will be stung by the tax.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Steve from Canstar to discuss the fallout from the RBA rate rises. Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
https://www.canstar.com.au/team-members/steve-mickenbecker/
National Debt Helpline 1800 007 007. https://ndh.org.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I discussed the RBA rate rise on the ABC this morning on RB with Patrica Karvelas. “Mortgage ‘prisoners’ trapped as RBA lifts cash rate” https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/mortgage-prisoners-trapped-as-rba-lifts-cash-rate/101412718
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The recent release of 2021 Census data revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”.
This statistic sent housing commentators, government agencies and policymakers into a spin. At a time of significant housing shortages, this extra million homes would surely make a big difference. They could provide housing for some homeless, ease the rental affordability crisis, and get first-home owners into their first home. There has been a great deal of speculation about how this has happened. Has it been caused by overseas millionaires buying up housing and leaving it as an empty investment? Is it Airbnb taking up homes that could be used for families? Or are cashed-up Gen-Xers double-consuming by living in one house while renovating another?
So, why were 1,043,776 dwellings empty on census night?
I caught up with Cameron as he republishes his book from 2017 Game of Mates: How favours bleed the nation as Rigged “How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians”.
This book will open your eyes to how Australia really works. It’s not good news, but you need to know it.’ – Ross Gittins ‘
You’ll be shocked at how far the Mates have their hand in your pocket.’ – Nicholas Gruen
Australia has become one of the most unequal societies in the Western world, when just a generation ago it was one of the most equal. This is the story of how networks of Mates have come to dominate business and government, robbing ordinary Australians.
Every hour you work, thirty minutes of it goes to line the Mates’ pockets rather than your own. Mates in big corporations, industry groups, government departments, the halls of parliament and the media skew the system to suit each other. Corporations dodge taxes, so you pay more. You pay more for your house and higher interest rates on your mortgage, more for your medicines and transport, and more for your children’s education and insurance, because the Mates take a cut.
Rigged uncovers the pattern of political favours, grey gifts and information-sharing that has been allowed to build up over two decades. Drawing on extensive economic research, it exposes the Game of Mates as nothing less than cronyism on a grand scale across Australia and how we have fallen behind other countries in combating it.
https://www.bigw.com.au/product/rigged-by-cameron-murray-and-paul-frijters/p/235646
We also discuss the recent Canberra event and housing policy in general.
Dr Cameron K. Murray is a Research Fellow in the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney and an economist specialising in property and urban development, environmental economics, rent-seeking and corruption. Professor Paul Frijters teaches at the London School of Economics and was previously Professor of Health Economics at the University of Queensland.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Is the US in recession or not? Well the “official figures” are unsure, and despite the inverted yield curve (2-10) you can still argue there is no recession, which gives latitude to the Fed to hike further and faster. We may hear something about this at Jackson Hole, the Central Bankers’ love-in!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A Royal Commission into Robodebt was announced today. Deemed illegal in 2019, this programme “recovered” money claimed to be owed through data matching, and was proved to be faulty, leading some to take drastic steps to avoid the debt. Lessons do need to be learnt.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat with Tarric Brooker, @AvidCommentator on Twitter.
His charts are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-19th-august-2022
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
What has become of our country?
We have learnt that Australia for the past two years have had a secret government behind our backs and even behind the backs of the Ministers of the Crown. Adams was beyond gobsmacked to learn that Scott Morrison had secretly appointed himself the Minister in 5 portfolios behind the backs of his ministers including the Ministry of Health; Ministry of Finance; Ministry of industry; and Ministry of Resources.
This was somehow done without the Governor-General in some cases and in other cases with the Governor-General! The Governor-General participated in a conspiracy of appointing ministers in secret without evening informing the substantive ministers or the Palace!
It is essential that Australians remember that we have a dual constitutional system: A written constitution (influence from America); and Convention (influence from Britain). Convention is an essential part of how our parliamentary system actually works.
Parliamentary practice has been developed over the course of centuries and people have literally died and gone to civil war to develop our conventions and to ensure that the rights of Parliament and the Parliamentary system remains intact.
Between the Governor-General, Morrison, Porter and some official inside the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Parliament, conventions and have been trashed.