Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Today’s afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker focuses on the question of whether inflation is really falling, or whether the markets are misreading the data streams.
You can follow along with Tarric’s slides at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-3rd-february/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The current Treasury review of Buy Now Pay Later lending highlights the contentions around the issue. Those with existing Credit Licenses of course argue that BNPL providers should also play on the same level playing field.
Many under financial stress are reaching for BNPL and some are ending up paying high effective interest rates. APRA changes also shape the game.
The sector does need proper regulation. Will the Government cave or stick?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I chew over a range of audience questions in out Friday session today, from property prices and monetary policy to China demographics.
Thanks to all those who sent in questions. Tell us what you think of this format.
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-from-dfa-q-and-a-january-20th
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is a edited version of a live debate between Senator Gerard Rennick and Economist John Adams as we examine economic and monetary policy, debt, and the role of the RBA and other regulators. How can we improve the economic outcomes for Australia, and Australians? Who is to blame for high inflation and home prices?
Original stream: https://youtu.be/DPZNSTeAFkk with chat.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=283596
https://www.adamseconomics.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join me for a live debate between Senator Gerard Rennick and Economist John Adams as we examine economic and monetary policy, debt, and the role of the RBA and other regulators. How can we improve the economic outcomes for Australia, and Australians? Who is to blame for high inflation and home prices?
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=283596
https://www.adamseconomics.com.au/
You can ask a question live!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another outing for our Property Insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the latest numbers, trends and market movements.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The true CPI experienced by many households is higher than the official figures, which by the way have been continually revised lower over time as the weighting methodology has changed.
So today we look at upcoming changes in the US CPI methodology, which is likely to put downward pressure on the CPI read, despite households on average now significantly worse off. A Numberwang if ever I saw one!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest incentives for NSW first time buyers, the latest from China as people there vote with their feet on property, the numbers, and of course a special chat about underquoting.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Interesting article in The Conversation looking at how wealth inequality has been amplified due to home price distortions and how this flows into some households at the expense of others.
They suggest tax reforms and planning reforms, but are silent on the main driver of this inequality – monetary policy, credit availability and lending policy. This is not the first-time analysts have chosen to ignore the elephant in the room.
The truth is the financialisation of property, as a policy, coupled with ultra-low interest rates and ultra-loose policy caused the problem. Question is, will this be addressed? We think not, given the power of the financial and construction sectors and their influence on governments of all persuasions.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Any incoming data requires interpretation to make sense. And the truth is, factors like recency bias, expectations, and hopium can all influence how newsis interpreted, and decisions made. We saw this on Friday when US markets read the data as signs of a slowing economy, and immediately went to the FED easing rate rises, despite earlier news that they are keeping at the rate rising until inflation is crimped. Treasury yields fell sharply as investors continued to price in the step down in the pace of rate hikes at the Fed’s meeting next month.
But I think the central bank will need to see further slowing of price increases in the December inflation report, due out next week, before deciding whether to slow its next rate hike. It raised rates 50 basis points in December.And future earnings expectations are likely overdone for now, so perhaps markets were one sided in their interpretation of the data. In the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting [released] this week, it was unanimous among members of the FOMC group that they are going to keep interest rates high all year long. We will see.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:30 Data is not Neutral
1:30 US Jobs Report and Macro
3:40 US Markets
7:40 Oil Down
10:20 Gas Down
12:35 Europe
14:00 China and Asia
18:00 “N” Shaped Recovery
19:00 Australian Market
20:19 Gold too high?
21:40 Crypto Bearish
23:25 Summary and Close
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/