Property Market – Page 15 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is Negative Gearing The Next Target?

Interesting to see the momentum now turning to discussion of whether the Government intends to tackle negative gearing having U-turned on the tax cuts.

As The Conversation put it, there are two things the prime minister needs to get into his head about tax. One is that saying he won’t make any further changes no longer works. The other is that negative gearing doesn’t do much to get people into homes.

Australia’s Treasury has begun publishing estimates of the cost of the present unfocused system of negative gearing. Its latest, released last week, puts the cost at $2.7 billion per year, to which should probably be added a chunk of the $19 billion per year lost as a result of the capital gains concession.

Albanese is normally cautious. But as he is showing us right now with his rejigged Stage 3 tax cuts, there are times when he is not. If he really wants to throw everything he has got at building more homes, he knows what to do.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate!

We walk through the latest from our surveys and modelling ahead of our live show which will be on 13th February 2024 at 8pm Sydney where we will look at specific post codes in more detail.

Household financial stress continues to bite, and is spreading into many different types of communities.

Ahead, we do not expect cash flow to improve for many, as mortgage rates will not be falling very soon, the costs of living continue to rise and income growth in real terms is muted, at best.

If you want data on a specific post code, put it in the comments and I will either cover it Tuesday week, or via a separate show.

If you want to get the full data set, this is available via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

Our One to One Service is also available: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Kiwi Home Prices Wobble!

We got the latest on New Zealand Property for December 2023 from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

I love how they spin the release, saying that the December 2023 figures show a notable increase in sales activity, median prices lifting, lower days to sell, and a clear sense of more confidence overall (year-on-year).

This is despite the fact that actually New Zealand house prices edged lower in December, down around 0.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis,
though trends diverged across the country, ranging from a 1.9% mom fall in Northland to a 4.2% lift in Tasman.

The national average was weighed down by a 0.9% mom price fall in Auckland. Among other big regions, Wellington prices lifted 0.6%, while prices in Canterbury eased 0.1%.

ASB’s commentary on the REINZ figures are helpful here. They say the NZ housing market has struggled to establish a clear direction since the last housing market correction came to an end in around March/April last year. Monthly price movements have usually been modest in either direction, with the market oscillating between small lifts and even slighter falls over most of the year (see our chart above for the contrast between 2021’s large price rises and 2022’s decent falls with 2023’s more meagre movements).

All-up, prices managed a bounce of only about 1.2% over H2 of last year.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!

The NSW government has already announced plans last month to build more than 200,000 homes and focus on higher density living by building up, not out. But now NSW Premier Chris Minns says the state will not meet its housing target, but is doing its best to boost supply.

The plan includes 138,000 new homes at rezoned sites in 31 suburbs, and 47,800 homes near eight major transport hubs, with the latter to be completed over the next 15 years.

Those suburbs include Bankstown, Bays West, Bella Vista, Crows Nest, Homebush, Hornsby, Kellyville and Macquarie Park.

The government will offer developers in those zones a fast-tracked approvals process, called a state significant development, to ensure apartments are built quickly.

It will be offered to developments over $60 million, and construction must start within two years of approval.

The government also intends to relocate Rosehill Racecourse and replace it with 25,000 homes as part of the plan.

But Housing industry insiders say they are not surprised by the NSW premier’s admission that the state will not meet its housing targets agreed to just last year.

The target, which was set out by the federal government in August, would see an average of 75,000 new dwellings a year over the next five years. It is part of a broader plan to build 1.2 million homes across Australia during that period.

Premier Chris Minns said the government would fall short of the goal but was working on building as many houses and units as possible to alleviate housing shortages and skyrocketing costs.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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