Property Market – Page 2 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Homeless; Renters Punished And Perth Is Worse Than Sydney!

Last week I published a show titled “The rental stress pips are squeaking” where I did a deep dive into rising rental stress across the country, to underscore the crisis we have in the rental sector. I called it the hidden crisis, because we get massive coverage of mortgage stress in the mainstream, media but rental stress not so much.

To underscore the crisis, new modelling from Impact Economics and Policy, a group of expert economists and policy specialists, estimates that back in 2022, as many as 3.2 million people were at risk of homelessness across the country, where one negative shock could result in them losing their home. This represents a 63% increase between 2016 and 2022 in the number of Australians at risk of homelessness.

A recent survey showed that 39% of Specialist Homelessness Services had to close their doors to people seeking help because they were unable to cope. With the homelessness services unable to cope despite the increase in people needing help, not enough are being assisted, and many are not even seeking help because they know they won’t get through.

Now, SGS Economics and Planning has release the tenth edition of the Rental Affordability Index (RAI) today, which shows that since 2015, rental affordability has declined in most cities, limiting where people can live and work and reshaping communities nationwide. Once affordable areas like South West Sydney and South East Melbourne are now increasingly out of reach for average rental households. Their analysis based on a different approach aligns with what I have been reporting.

The report lands as the Albanese government struggles to get support to pass two key housing bills, dismissing a last minute offer from the Greens as more about politics than progress.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Is It Inter-Generational War Then?

OK folks a rant warning. It seems you are better placed financially and socially, if you are old with property compared with being young with none or a massive mortgage! And its structural thanks to bad policy across the board. One reason why younger people are turning away from the major Uniparty.

If you are one of the many thousands of younger Australians struggling to try and get on the property ladder, you will already know there is a war on youth, thanks to mass immigration, a permanent per capita recession, the rent shock, the energy shock, unaffordable homes, crushed wages, rampaging mortgage repayments, destroyed and expensive education, plus a ruined built environment a wrecked natural environment, oh and a dying planet.

But Older Australians are in a completely different world. CBA says Australians are freeing up more of their wallet for discretionary purchases with a focus on value and convenience, according to the latest CommBank iQ Cost of Living Insights analysis. Overall spending continues to trail inflation, up by just 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year.

The combination of higher prices and mortgage rates has pushed the percentage of median household disposable income spent on mortgage repayments on a median-priced home to a record high of 50.6% nationally.

But on another planet, far, far away, cash sales in property surged 14 per cent to $138 billion across NSW, Victoria and Queensland over the past financial year, fuelled by wealthy downsizers, retirees and investors, a new report shows.

So it’s better to be old, with property, than young with no property or a massive mortgage, and the intergenerational gap is continuing to grow. Trouble is, unless things change trends are set to deteriorate further. Sure if you have parents with property who will fall off the perch sometime in the future, you may gat a look in, but if not, permanent renting is the order of the day. So much for the Australian dream of property ownership.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In this weeks show Edwin, our property insider and I look at the latest designs for higher density housing and highlight some important questions for prospective purchasers and governments. It won’t end well.

And we look at the relative performance of markets, comparing Sydney and Melbourne. What is the media pushing, and what is the reality?

And of course we look at the latest numbers and our tips for the week.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The Property Price Downturn Is Spreading….

I have been saying for some time that some property markets are on the turn. More evidence of this has now been published. And while aggregate data is averaged, CoreLogic’s October report does highlights a modest rise in national home values, but easing annual growth, and shifting market dynamics across different regions and property segments with wider falls.

They say that nationally, their Home Value Index recorded a 0.3% rise in October, but it was driven by mid-sized capitals like Perth, which saw a 1.4% increase, whereas Sydney saw a -0.1% decline in home values, alongside declines in Darwin (-1.0%), Canberra (-0.3%), Melbourne (-0.2%), as well as regional Victoria (-0.2%) in the month.

We also see that upper quartile house values are falling more than lower quartile values, which recorded a rise. The trend of stronger performance in the affordable market segment is consistent across capital cities.

A combination of less borrowing capacity and broader affordability challenges, as well as a higher-than-average share of investors and first home buyers in the market is the most likely explanation for stronger conditions across the lower value cohorts of the market.

Slower growth in home values has been accompanied by a rise in advertised stock levels. Based on a rolling four week count of listings to October 27th, advertised inventory has increased 12.7% since the end of winter across the combined capitals, with the largest increase occurring in Perth where listings are 20.6% higher, albeit from an exceptionally low base.

Alongside the rise in advertised supply, the number of home sales looks to be fading. Estimates for capital city sales activity over the three months ending October were down -7.5% from three months earlier and -1.6% lower than at the same time last year.

My analysis shows that more investors are under water from a cash flow perspective, and we are seeing more investors jumping ship, while others are buying.

All up given the higher for longer trajectory of both inflation and interest rates, I suspect we will see continued weakness in several markets into 2025.

But as always we need to go granular to see the detail across locations and property types. I will be sharing some of my mapping on this in the next few days.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Opening The Housing Affordability Can Of Worms….

This is a show about housing affordability and specifically lobbying from certain banks to reduce mortgage lending buffers in which we look at evidence provided to the Senate Economics Reference Committee inquiry into the Financial Regulatory Framework And Home Ownership which was chaired by NSW Senator Andrew Bragg, with Jess Walsh the ALP Senator for Victoria and Greens Senator for South Australia.Barbara Pocock.

We look at key evidence from Chris Taylor of the Australian Banking Association, Martin Green and Paul Deall from Westpac, Andy Kerr and Ben Nicholls from National Australia Bank and from the Commonwealth Bank Angus Sullivan and Kylie Rickson.

We also look at compelling evidence from Consumer Advocates including Nadia Harrison from Mortgage Stress Victoria, Erin Turner from The Consumer Policy Research Centre, Dr Domenique Meyrick from Financial Counselling Australia and Julia Davis from the Financial Rights Legal Centre.

David Locke, June Smith and Natilee Cameron from AFCA, the Ombudsman, and APRA (Therese McCarthy Hocky, Dr Sean Carmody, Chris Gower and Marian Kohler) made the case that credit is flowing and available.

The inquiry also heard from Kylie Davis Proptech Association of Australia and Lynda Coker, Frank Austin and Liz Rochaix Co-operty.

Alexander Hordern Insurance Council Australia and Pauline Blight -Johnston Helia discussed LMI

And finally, Professor John Quiglan, Saul Eslake and Ben Spics-Butcher each in their individual private capacity argued that decades of evidence in supply constrained environments shows people spend more on housing driving prices higher rather than expanding ownership rates (which is why using super for housing is a bad idea.

The Greens focused in on investor demand, while Ben argued the Government was really concerned about property price falls, as shown through the GFC. Tenure security, and a rise in public housing are most important, shared equity and housing future fund does not help.

All up, it revealed how complex the can of works is, and that simply increasing leaning of offering other incentives is counter productive!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/