The UK Property Market Is Slowing!

UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers.

No surprise then that Britain’s property market showed signs of slowing to a crawl after a jump in mortgage costs reduced both buyer demand and the volume of sales. The figures add to evidence that the housing market is weakening after the quickest series of increases in interest rates lifted the cost of mortgages. Lenders including Nationwide and Halifax say property prices are falling, and some expect a peak-to-trough slump of 10% to 12% is “very likely.”

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey for July 2023 says at the national level, new buyer enquiries posted a figure of -45%, like last month’s figure of -46%. As a result, this metric continues to signal a sharp downturn in buyer demand following the latest escalation in mortgage interest rates. When viewed at the level of the English regions and the four nations, all parts of the UK display a firmly negative return for new buyer enquiries over the month.

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It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Show Me The Numbers! A deep dive into some of the fallacies which driven by MSM (and who pays the bills?) as we look at the latest from our property insider.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

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This Time Is Different! – With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we deep dive into the latest charts and trends.

You can see the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-4th-august-2023?sd=pf

Japan article here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/kamikaze-bank-of-japan-policy-and

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A Building Spanner In The Works!

Metricon is the country’s largest residential home builder, and credits itself as ‘”Australia’s most trusted choice”. According to an ABC report, Metricon has terminated dozens of fixed-price contracts and asked customers to sign new contracts for substantially more. The major homebuilder has also stopped paying some agents’ commission fees, without explanation.
Metricon is the only builder to appear on the NSW watchdog’s complaints register this year.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-27/metricon-builder-terminates-dozens-fixed-price-contracts/102629928

Worth underscoring its important to read the small print in construction contracts, at a time when building failures are rising, thanks to the profitless boom created by poor policy and low interest rates.

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Welcome To Burnout Economics! With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker goes deep into the economic substructure of the economy, where we see people pulling in two directions at the same time – Burnout Economics!

https://avidcom.substack.com/p/burnout-economics-presentation-on
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/resuming-student-loan-payments-to

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Household Financial Stress Hits A New High In June!

The hot news from our surveys and models is that financial stress, mortgage stress and particularly rental stress has gone higher again, as more households struggle with cash flow issues (our stress definition is based on cash flow status).

We walk though the main results, across the states, households segments and post codes. We also geo-map the results.

Let me know if you would like me to run another live show on this analysis, with post code data available.

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