Compared to the weak RBA rate of 4.35%, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, lifted earlier and higher, and has begun to cut rates as the New Zealand economy slipped into recession. Next week we will get the next RBNZ rate decision, and a new survey has show that although New Zealand business sentiment is improving a window has opened to allow a cut interest rates of 50 basis points. The RBNZ has forecast around 2.5% of rate cuts over a 2.5 year period.
The contrast with Australia is interesting, because the RBA has left rates at a lower rate trying to preserve the gains in employment, whereas the RBNZ lifted more aggressively and tipped the New Zealand economy into a recession. Neither outcome is great, showing the problem with blunt monetary policy tools.
In addition, the latest New Zealand migration stats reveals a sharp moderation in net overseas migration, a critical factor working against economic growth. And worse, a large number of citizens are emigrating from New Zealand, replaced by poorer migrants from developing nations according to Stats NZ. As a result, annual New Zealand’s population growth is slowing, which will moderate demand. And of course New Zealand’s economy is stuck in a protracted per capita recession and unemployment is rising fast.
All up, clearly more rate cuts are coming, and a period of falling prices – deflation – could well be on the cards. As a result, the RBNZ will need to front load those future rate cuts, so 50 basis points next week are highly likely.
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The latest news from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest moves from Government (including erecting statues!!) news from China, and the latest data. Things continue to show a gap between strategy and reality, as negative gearing questions emerge again!
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
In our latest show we kick around the recent events which question where property is going (depending on your point of view). Unbelievable!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with our property insider Edwin Almeida as we discuss things that go wrong in buildings and yet issues which are often missed. Using our Building Surveyor skills we will explore some specific cases, and also draw out some important lessons for those engaging with property.
Original version with chat here: https://youtube.com/live/nWWu3atcqoE
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 16.7% decline nationally from the market peak reached in 2021. This has taken real inflation-adjusted house prices back to their pre-pandemic level at the start of 2020.
But in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 0.25% and has signalled that significant further cuts would be made over the next 18 month. Business confidence took a leg up, bouncing to a net 51% positive from just 6% in response, banking on the end of the recession which has gripped the country.
Net Migration is also falling away rapidly, according to statistics New Zealand, and we are seeing more property coming on market with inventories up by 30% compared with last year, while sales volumes are down compared with last year and more property being subsequently withdrawn from market failing to find a buyer at their desired asking price.
So net net, it seems likely that as we go into spring and summer in New Zealand, demand might be higher thanks to lower rates but offset by lower migration, while supply is higher but transaction volumes are lower. Which begs the question, are we seeing the property market turning?
Well, the latest report, or should that be marketing document from the REINZ for August shows “signs of increased confidence, optimism and activity compared to the previous year. While the overall sales volume slightly declined, several regions reported notable increases in activity, and year-on-year listing numbers continue to rise”.
All up, its probably too soon to talk about an uptick in property values, but there may well be more property coming on to the market, and an uptick in sales to boot. Further rate cuts will help, and of course the loser regulations on investment property may also assist, but migration driven demand is falling.
Its probably way too early to declare victory, for now. REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said August provided a sense of confidence and positivity to the property market. I would remain more cautious. Auckland still seems to be more exposed while some South Island markets though smaller are more positive. And there is considerable uncertainty ahead.
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Home builders are falling off the perch at an alarming rate with high rates of insolvency among construction firms, many of whom were homebuilders, to 3,000 in the past year. While many of these were small firms, we are still seeing a spate of larger firms going under. We are encountering more people in our 1:1 discussions with people coping with half built projects, no builder to take over the work, rising costs and blown out completion dates. No wonder people prefer to buying existing property.
The latest quarterly data on the value of construction work done also fell by 0.1% over Q2 to be 2.9% lower year-on-year.
More broadly, The Albanese Government is a complete mess on housing with the three bills that comprise its $32bn Housing for Australia plan blocked in the senate. These include The Help to Buy shares equity scheme. The Housing Future Fund equity investment vehicle to build just 13,000 houses per year. And the Build to Rent legislation which is designed to assist corporate to get tax breaks to build and then rent units, probably at higher than market rents. After all they are designed to make profits for those investing corporates and superfunds.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has threatened to use the Senate’s obstruction of Help to Buy as a trigger for a double dissolution election. Welcome to that time of the political cycle where we find ourselves burrowing into the election date speculation rabbit hole.
The real fix of course is to cut immigration significantly, as this would ease the rental shortage and lower rental inflation; which in turn would take pressure off the RBA to hold rates higher for longer enabling builders to clear the huge backlog of approvals and easing pressure on households. And on that front, Moody’s says that Australian mortgage delinquency rates, which increased over the June quarter, will continue to rise moderately over the rest of this year as high interest rates and sticky inflation put financial stress on households.
Standing back, the policy errors made by the current government are literally hitting home, and with the prospect of more political tricks on all sides of politics, the real impact on people will continue. They should be held to account for their mistakes.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, as we kick over the current issues facing markets and households. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades.
His understanding of market psychology has ensured valued investment strategies in bull and bear markets. Because of his ability to understand the small cap market space, Tony has been featured in dozens of well known publications across Australia, such as Small Caps, Sky Business, Digital Finance Analytics, and many more.
Original stream and chat here: https://youtube.com/live/t8AcR69APfM
In this weeks edition property insider Edwin Almeida looks around Albo’s investment property which is on the market to highlight some important issues around building inspections, plus we discuss the Misinformation Bill while we still can and also look at a horrid case of underquoting.
Truth is, whether you are a vendor looking to sell, or a buyer wanting to buy, it is vital to do due diligence on the way through. Not doing so can cost thousands!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
One of the factors I see in my household surveys is wealth transfer from one generation to another, stoked by the paper wealth created by the massive upswing in home prices. We see more first-time buyers being assisted by the Bank of Grandparents, alongside the Bank of Mum and Dad. This means there is a historic wealth transfer is under way in Australia, for those fortunate enough to have parents or grandparents with assets, tough on those with none of those onramps to property and wealth. With a large chunk of that wealth stored in residential property assets, the shift is already reshaping property market activity, and will intensify in the years to come.
In my surveys I encounter a theme quite often, households who cannot get into the property market while their friends and colleagues seem able to do so. So how come some can and some cannot?
Well, it could be that others are simply just better at saving. Hustling. Investing. Negotiating salary. The second: they’ve got a loan of cash injection from the Bank of Mum and Dad or Grandparents (though often its not clear whether they will have to pay it back. And third, they are a beneficiary of the great intergenerational wealth transfer.
Demographic research firm McCrindle just published a report and they say Baby Boomers are passing on an estimated $6.2 trillion of capital to their children and grandchildren.
Since 2013, the percentage of 25 to 34-year-olds who think that Australia is a land of economic opportunity, where hard work brings a better life, has fallen from 80 per cent to 51 per cent. The same trend was observed across all age groups.
“Belief in the fair go … appears to be declining. We estimate that overall agreement that Australia is a land of economic opportunity has declined by 16 percentage points since 2013,” the researchers found.
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The mythology that home prices always rise has been busted before, because the high-level indices which are the fixation of the media, ignore the real variations, at a granular level.
The latest data from Corelogic shows that at the aggregate level there were small falls in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, and Melbourne, while there were stronger rises in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth (especially Perth) and a small rise in Sydney.
But now, the people at Corelogic who release one of the main indicators of prices included in their Housing Chart Pack, the September ‘Chart of the Month’ which takes a granular look at value falls over the three months to August from a quarterly study of 3,655 suburbs across the country and found that house prices in almost one-third (29.2 per cent) had fallen. In comparison, in the three months to August last year prices had dropped in 17.2 per cent of suburbs. They say that Melbourne (79.1%) and regional Victorian suburbs (73.8%) made up the majority of falls over the quarter. Values also decreased across more than half of the suburbs in Hobart (54.3%), Darwin (51.2%), and Canberra (51.6%), while all suburbs in Perth saw values rise over the quarter.
The company said declines were becoming more common as high interest rates as well as cost of living and affordability challenges continued.
So, what’s ahead then? Well of course this depends on the trajectory of interest rates, remembering that the current higher rates have depressed the typical borrowing capacity of the first-time buyer by as much as 40% from just a couple of years back. Inflation in Australia remains significantly higher than in many other countries, so the RBA is sticking to its view there will be no rate cuts anytime soon.
To try and highlight the potential sensitivities of interest rates, we run three scenarios, and look three years out, to illustrate the sensitivities across units and houses by state.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
