Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
More examples of property price falls across southeast Queensland, thanks to research by Cookie, following our recent live show on property trends in Brisbane. This is not a scientific selected sample; they merely represent some of the falls being show on the property portals. The Gold Coast seems particulally prone.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join me for a live discussion about the current state of the Brisbane property market with Meighan Wells the Principal of Property Pursuit and co-founder of the Home Buyer Academy and co-presenter of Your First Home Buyer Guide Podcast. In recognition of her expertise and high standards in the fast-growing buyer’s agency industry, Meighan was engaged to develop and deliver the education module for the REIQ course Acting as a Buyer’s Agent and is the former Chairman of the REIQ Buyers’ Agent Chapter.
You can ask a question live. We will look at recent price falls, as well as the latest from our modelling, including information at a post code level. Thanks to Cookie for his work on price falls!!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The REINZ has released their report for August 2022 today, and it’s a story of continued weakness across the housing market in New Zealand, which is unsurprising given the significant cash rate hikes imposed by the Reserve Bank there.
So today we will look at the data, and also highlight how the story is still being spun by the industry to try and turn a profoundly negative story positive. Well good luck with that, as the OCR is lifted higher still.
They report that across New Zealand, median prices for residential property (excluding sections) decreased 5.9% annually, from $850,000 in August 2021 to $800,000 in August 2022. Month-on-month, this represents a 1.2% decrease from $810,000 in July. The seasonally adjusted figures show a 2.1% decrease in the median price as we moved from July to August, suggesting weaker performance than expected.
The median residential property price for New Zealand excluding Auckland remained unchanged compared to last year at $700,000. There was a month-on-month decrease of 2.8% from $720,000. A better way to report that, is all gains from the past year have now been extinguished on average.
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The latest from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest coverage of property, numbers, and trends.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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Queensland has been a state where property investors have traditionally made better returns on a net and gross basis, from investment property in the state, compared with those in New South Wales and Victoria.
To recap, gross investment returns is the ratio of current property market value compared with the current rental paid, assuming the property is fully let. The Net Investment return is a more real-world measure, which takes account of actual vacancy rates, cost of mortgage, maintenance, and management of the property. In our surveys, many property investors have no feel for their true net returns, clinging to the prospect of eternal capital gains.
Those in Victoria are worst placed, which explains the very strong interstate investment in Queensland, one reason why prices and rents had shot up in the past couple of years. But there is something afoot in Queensland, which could change this picture, possibly significantly.
Indeed, those following the AFR will have noted its fever pitch campaign against an Australian-first move whereby landholders will have to voluntarily disclose their interstate holdings in other states before being taxed for their Queensland holdings. These land tax changes were first announced in the 2021-22 budget update on 16 December 2021. Queensland Treasury has said the tax change will raise only $20 million a year from 2023-24 and impact about 10,000 landholders, most of whom who live interstate.
Investors are irate with the changes, saying they will drive investors out of Queensland as well as push up rents and that they felt like they were being taxed twice in two different states.
A spokesman for Mr Dick acknowledged this week the tax change would affect some Queensland investors.
So now Queensland owners are now working out how they will be stung by the tax.
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In this show we do a deeper dive into the ABS Census data series and examine the distribution and location of vacant property as defined by the census. We highlight the post codes with the highest counts and their distribution. We have mapped the results and added them to our Core Market Model.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In New Zealand, the tightening rate cycle which is currently in full swing – with more to come, is crushing the housing market, as illustrated by the August 2022 QV House Price Index for August which was released today. The average house value in New Zealand had fallen by some $89,917 to the end of August (down 8.5%) compared with the January peak – which is a rate of some $424 of lost value per day. “It looks as though it’s going to get tougher before it gets any easier for sellers. First-home buyers will continue to struggle for finance with tight credit conditions and affordability constraints. Plus, there’s still plenty of new homes in the pipeline, which will add further to oversupply, putting further downward pressure on prices.”
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I caught up with Steve from Canstar to discuss the fallout from the RBA rate rises. Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
https://www.canstar.com.au/team-members/steve-mickenbecker/
National Debt Helpline 1800 007 007. https://ndh.org.au/
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I discussed the RBA rate rise on the ABC this morning on RB with Patrica Karvelas. “Mortgage ‘prisoners’ trapped as RBA lifts cash rate” https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/mortgage-prisoners-trapped-as-rba-lifts-cash-rate/101412718
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of the property markets. We look at recent price falls, as well as the latest from our modelling, including information at a post code level. And of course review today’s RBA decision. Warning, this show might run for longer than normal! Thanks to Cookie for his work on price falls!!
Original stream is here: https://youtu.be/R2Oy5Mk4RLA
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/