Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Another outing with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we pick over the latest data, with a focus on what is happening in the real economy. We also discuss the real race many are running in terms of no real income growth, and the political and economic implications of this ahead.
You can find Tarric’s charts at https://www.burnouteconomics.com/
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n our latest show we pull apart some of the recent property spruiking, look at the latest numbers and deep dive into the gap between the “speak” from policy makers and the “reality” of what they do. As a result we underscore the need to go local, and not be misled by high-level waffle!
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The latest RBA bulletin, just released, contained a couple of significant articles relating to mortgage arrears and serviceability. The first, “Recent Drivers of Housing Loan Arrears” shows that Housing loan arrears rates have increased from low levels since late 2022, with banks expecting them to rise a bit further from here. High LVR and DTI loans are most at risk. No surprise there.
The second, “How the RBA Uses the Securitisation Dataset to Assess Financial Stability Risks from Mortgage Lending” makes the point that the data used relating to around one third of loans, contains lags of up to 2 years especially for highly leverage loans, which limits the usefulness of that dataset.
Securitisation data collected by the RBA, forming the Securitisation Dataset, on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) as a condition for eligibility as collateral in repurchase agreements with the RBA. These loan-level data are provided monthly, and are both timely and granular. The data provide detailed information about each loan that can be used to help form a view of financial health among mortgagors. As lenders can face incentives to select certain types of loans for securitisation or ensure the performance of loans after issuance, the data may not be fully representative of all mortgages in the Australian market. In other words, the loans are hand-picked for securitisation.
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This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Perth. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades.
His understanding of market psychology has ensured valued investment strategies in bull and bear markets. Because of his ability to understand the small cap market space, Tony has been featured in dozens of well known publications across Australia, such as Small Caps, Sky Business, Digital Finance Analytics, and many more.
If you are looking for an investment manager who has your best interests at heart, Tony is the man for you. https://tonylocantro.com/
Tony Locantro’s Carnivore Transformation! https://youtu.be/FV0TWDeOG8E
Original show recording here: DFA Live Q&A: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble, This Time It’s Different! https://youtube.com/live/Tt7vpkujekM
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Latest data from REINZ shows further momentum falls across property sales and prices in New Zealand, as the higher rates continue to squeeze households and dampen the markets. Prices are now 16% below past peaks.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A big show this week, as Edwin and I consider how international events impact local markets, distressed sales especially from investors rise, and more builders collapse as markets might be taking a breather.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Back in 2021 the Census revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”.
But now we have a new survey from economic research organisation Prosper Australia, looking at empty homes in Melbourne from 2019 to 2023. The report SPECULATIVE VACANCIES 11 makes the point that while around 30,000 people in Victoria have no home, it is hard to quantify the number of homes that have no people. This they attempt to do.
To access vacancy, Prosper measures vacancy rates across metropolitan Melbourne using data from Melbourne’s three water retailers – Yarra Valley Water, South East Water and Greater Western Water.
They found that of the 1.9 million dwellings with active water connections in the study area, in total 97,861 dwellings sat empty or under-used over the entire year: 5.2% of all dwellings in metropolitan Melbourne, or one in 20 homes. These vacant dwellings represent a huge pool of valuable resources not being used productively. At the average household size they could accommodate over 250,000 people.
If this were replicated across Australia, it could be there are sufficient spare homes to meet current need! This should be a top political issue, but one no-one wants to touch!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This an edit of a live discussion with Sydney based Buyers Agents Veronica Morgan as we explore the tricks and traps of property purchase. Veronica believes that it’s easier to lose money in real estate than most people realise and it’s her mission to guide people to make better property decisions!
Veronica Morgan is the Founder and Principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers. She is also the co-host of the popular series Location Location Location Australia with Bryce Holdaway and Relocation Relocation Australia on Foxtel’s The Lifestyle Channel Australia. You can also tune into Veronica as she co-hosts the Your First Home Buyer Guide podcast & The Elephant in the Room property podcast, which investigates who is really in control when you buy property. She’s also recently co-founded Home Buyer Academy, which provides online support for first home buyers so they don’t get lost buying their first home and is a co-founder of Suburb Help. And if that’s not enough, she’s the author of “Auction Ready: how to buy property at auction even though you’re scared sh!#less”.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join us for another journey of exploration through the property market, as Edwin Almeida, our property insider, and I look at the latest data and headlines and try to figure what is really going on.
Are there early signs of listings easing lower – and who is, and who is not buying?
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
This is the second post relating to our household stress analysis for June 2024, in which we answer specific viewer requests for deep dive analysis at a post code level. Specifically we covered:
2250 Gosford 6210 Mandurah 3021 St Albans 2213 Panania 3064 Craigieburn 3754 Doreen 3109 Doncaster East 3465 Avoca 3199 Frankston 3942 Mornington 3266 Warrnambool 3220 Geelong 6026 Karrinyup
See the first show in the series here: https://youtu.be/e6lPGQ7KZ5M
You can obtain the full dataset by subscribing via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
You can get details of our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Or send a message via the DFA Blog, for an individual post code data set.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/