Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness as we pick apart the latest economic myths across property and the economy.
Original show is here: https://youtube.com/live/bT-hxYrjJ1A
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This week our property insider Edwin Almeida and I explore the impact of the RBA decision, with voices from various parts of the Sydney market, look at the tussle between REA and Domain and deep dive into the circus which is property and politics.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
In a follow-up to my recent post about the impact of financial stress on households (after the recent Government largesse), today we do a deep dive into the mapping of mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress, together with the latest data on defaults and investor returns for Australian post code. We centre our analysis on the main unban areas across the country.
My earlier show on stress is here: https://youtu.be/eRM8alMOi4g which includes my ideas about how to respond to financial pressures.
I plan to make a third show about specific post code analysis, so if you want data on a specific code, drop it in the comments below over the next few days.
Details of my one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Demand for a place to live remains very high, driven by population growth from mega-high migration and low but perhaps improving vacancy rates in the rental sector. We know that roughly one third of households own their own property, outright, one third own with a mortgage, and one third rent. Those in the last two categories are expanding, while those who own outright are shrinking as a proportion of the total – though with some state variations.
Over recent decades, the Government has effectively outsourced the provision of rental housing to the private sector, via mum and dad investors, who get considerable tax breaks to hold property for rent, and more recently though the rise of the so-called build to rent sector, which is being held out as a solution to the lack of property for rent.
The critical question is do we want to go further into the mire of neo-liberalism and let big international investors build homes to rent in Australia, with rents that according to Cameron Murray are typically higher than local providers, while offering even more tax breaks, to corporates, or should the Government get back into the home building game, (see my discussion with Elisa Barwick yesterday) through a public bank, and also dial back migration to a sustainable level. Ideology apart the answer seems obvious, and yet… they still want more migrations to pump GDP and more build to rent to meet a housing target which was built in fairy land.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This weeks rant got a bit controversial as Edwin and I dissected a couple of recent bathroom renovations, considered the root causes of social unrest, and discussed whether housing should be a human right. We also looked at the latest numbers and recent media reports, ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party, as we explore the current status of the war on cash, regional banking, post offices, and the need to revolutionize the financial system for ordinary people.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Original version here: https://youtube.com/live/R8iykUULjA4
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
As the wackiness continues, property insider Edwin Almeida and I pick over the bones of the market, as expectation of rate hikes harden, people are starting to talk about weakness in some places, while the media continue to spruik as though their lives depended on it.
We also look at fascinating insights from Chinese students in Australia and how they manage their finances.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
If you chose to look below the hood, you can see some changing dynamics across the property market which may indicate the recent rises in some areas are easing, to the point where the boss of the country’s biggest real estate group has cautioned that vendors may need to rein in their price expectations this spring, after property price growth eased in July amid concerns of another interest rate rise.
CoreLogic’s Daily Home Value Index shows capital city house prices are up 0.4 per cent over the first 27 days of July, compared with growth of 0.7 per cent in June. As the AFR reported, “Vendors need to be careful regarding price growth expectations,” Ray White Group managing director Dan White said.
Another factor we are seeing playing out is the number of investment properties coming onto the market a feature we noted first in Melbourne where rules on investment property were tightened by the state government.
There net investment yields ( that’s the costs to service the property relative to the rental received) is negative for more than half of properties. Trouble is, many of these properties are also lemons, given they often need more than just a bit of TLC, given many have poor wiring, leaks, asbestos and worse.
Now, NSW Premier, who has been talking about making property in Sydney more affordable, announced the introduction of a ban on no-reason evictions, and an extension of mandatory notice periods to 90 days from 60 days. In other words, owners who use legally permitted grounds for eviction – including if they want to live in their own homes – will have to give three months’ notice. In these cases, their renters can walk out, at any time, without penalty. The NSW changes are slated to start early next year.
It already looks like some property investors are leaving the field, thus reducing the supply of rental property. True a first time buyer might step up, but lending standards at higher rates make borrowing capacity an issue. And the risk I see playing out is that well meaning first time buyers will be buying lemons, alongside some ill-informed property investors who still weirdly believe property only ever goes up in value. Just look across the ditch for a dose of reality, as I highlighted recently. There, thanks to slower migration and high interest rates, prices are nose-diving.
Will we see a similar scenario in Australia, or will the Government play another card to keep prices buoyant, or APRA reducing lending buffers. Frankly on both counts its likely, but remember folks, a lemon remains a lemon, so in the current environment buy with great care, and prepare for the cracks to swallow up potential prices rises ahead.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Another outing with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we pick over the latest data, with a focus on what is happening in the real economy. We also discuss the real race many are running in terms of no real income growth, and the political and economic implications of this ahead.
You can find Tarric’s charts at https://www.burnouteconomics.com/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A new report from the Finance Industry Peak Body, UK Finance, which represents more than 300 firms in the UK, reveals that cash remained the second most popular payment method, after debit cards – with an estimated three million people still relying on it. Their research suggests 1.5 million mainly used cash in 2023, up from 900,000 the previous year.
This was it appears an unexpected jump in the number of people who mainly use notes and coins for their daily spending, despite all the propaganda that the UK moving closer to becoming a cashless society. A UK Finance spokesperson said it would monitor the situation regarding people who mainly used cash to see if this was the start of a trend or merely a “statistical blip”. We think it’s more than that.
As I highlighted in a recent post the chaos caused by the global IT outage last week underlines the risk of moving towards a cashless society. Even if the data forecasts that cash will represent only 6% of payments in a decade’s time, it’s critical if other systems go down, as we saw with the outage last week” UK Finance said. This is as close to the Swedish message of make sue you keep cash on hand in case of emergencies as it gets, without saying it!
In Australia, as I reported recently there was also a rise in cash usage, despite the banks best worst efforts, and the recommendation from the recent Senate Inquiry into Regional Branch closures also recommend making access to cash an essential service.
Its simple really people, keep using cash, and we retain a backup in case of emergency. We also know people using cash regularly has a better handle on their finances, teaches kids the real value of money, and acts as an antidote to tap tap credit based society, where banks make a dollar from every transaction, which costs us all. While the war on cash is far from over, use it, or lose it. Its that simple!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/