Personal insolvencies rise 1.1% in the September quarter 2016

The Australian Financial Security Authority today released the personal insolvency activity statistics for the September quarter 2016. Debt agreements reached record highs in Western Australia, South Australia and Northern Territory in the September quarter 2016.

There are three types of personal insolvencies: bankruptcies, debt agreements and personal insolvency agreements. Traditionally, changes in bankruptcies drove changes in total personal insolvencies. However, this has changed in recent years, with debt agreements often driving the change in total personal insolvencies. This is because in recent years, it is common for debt agreements to rise while bankruptcies fall.  In the September quarter 2016, debt agreements accounted for 44% of total personal insolvencies. This is the highest proportion since debt agreements commenced in 1997.

Quarterly bankruptcies compared to debt agreements

Quarterly bankruptcies compared to debt agreements

Personal insolvency in the September quarter 2016

Total personal insolvencies increased by 1.1% in the September quarter 2016 compared to the September quarter 2015. Despite recent rises, the number of personal insolvencies in the September quarter 2016 remains below the peaks reached in 2008-09 and 2009–10.

By type of personal insolvency:

  • bankruptcies fell 3.5%
  • debt agreements increased by 7.3%
  • personal insolvency agreements increased by 18.2%.

Personal insolvency agreements fluctuate more than bankruptcies and debt agreements as the numbers are relatively small.

Debt agreements in the September quarter 2016 are the second highest on record, with 3,307 debt agreements. The highest number of debt agreements was in the June quarter 2016 (3,329 debt agreements).

Debt agreements reached record highs in Western Australia, South Australia and Northern Territory in the September quarter 2016.

per-insolv

Debtors with a business-related personal insolvency

In the September quarter 2016, 18.4% of debtors entered a business related personal insolvency.  This is a rise from 17.5% in the June quarter 2016.

In the September quarter 2016:

  • economic conditions (483 debtors) was the most common business related cause
  • unemployment or loss of income (2,054 debtors) and excessive use of credit (2,047 debtors) were the most common non-business related causes.

Retirement will be harder for future Australians

New research by the Swinburne Institute for Social Research, shows the wealth effect of holding property, and the risks in retirement of those unable to get on the ladder. In fact, a comfortable retirement is unlikely for those renting, because they are excluded from capital growth, which makes up such a large element of household wealth.

They also show that households who invested in property in 2013 were far more highly leveraged than those from 2003, reflecting changes in tax concessions, and growing household debt.

Essentially, households have little choice but to join the property owning sector, once again highlighting why people are so desperate to join the band wagon; and the risks embedded should home prices revert to more normal level. As we said in a recent blog – all most everyone wins from ever high home prices, until the music stops.

The report examined the wealth of people aged 40 to 64 years and recent retirees.

It evaluated the degree to which households can accumulate wealth for retirement, focusing on housing, and the impact of relationships and divorce or separation.

owners-wealth

Lead researcher Dr Andrea Sharam says lone person and couple-only renters over 45 years of age tend to have little wealth.

“There are currently 425,000 people in lone person or couple households over 50 renting in Australia with this number expected to rise to 600,000 by 2030 and again to 830,000 by 2050.

“This number of impoverished older people equates to a huge increase in demand for housing assistance.”

Men and women are revealed to have different pathways into rental poverty in old age. For women the cost of care and the gender wage gap negatively affects them, while for men low educational achievement, consequential limited employment prospects and disability are factors.

“Relationship breakdown typically adversely impacts wealth with one if not both former partners often falling out of home ownership and not later recovering home ownership.

“Single mothers with young children are particularly vulnerable,” Dr Sharam says.

Policy recommendations

The report recommends a number of policy changes, including substantial community investment in social housing, and new affordable housing tenures aimed at midlife households who may not be eligible for social housing but also cannot afford full market house pricing.

“Social housing eligibility should be widened to order to cater for a broader range of incomes,” Dr Sharam says.

This would help prevent the loss of wealth associated with being a private renter and minimise the danger of retirees exhausting their resources before end of life.

The report also recommends better rights for renters, including:

  • security of tenure in residential tenancies legislation,
  • institutional investment in rental housing,
  • age-specific rental supplements, and
  • a National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) type program targeted to age pensioners.

To read the full report see, Security in Retirement: The impact of housing and key critical life events.

Chinese ‘upgraders’ adding new twist to real estate boom

As Chinese buyers gain residency, they also want to move into existing homes partly so they don’t have to compete with foreign investors buying overpriced apartments. From News.com.au.

wolli-building

Shanghai-born accountant Vincent Liu, 33, moved to Sydney around 10 years ago to complete his Masters degree. After renting in three different suburbs, he finally bought an apartment in Macquarie Park in 2012 for $570,000.

But with a young daughter and family, he’s already to keen to move out.

“A lot of my friends and schoolmates are in a similar situation,” he said. “We bought apartments or units around 2012 or 2013, now most of them have kids or are planning for the next stage of their life.”

Mr Liu said another concern for this group was the potential oversupply in apartments, making houses or townhouses with land attached a more attractive long-term investment.

“[But] I don’t think they’re going to sell just because of price fluctuation in the short term, unless something major happens,” he said. “For Chinese people, growth is not their major concern, it’s about putting money in a safe place.”

And as Chinese buyers gain residency, they also want to move into existing homes partly so they don’t have to compete with foreign investors buying overpriced apartments.

“For new migrants I don’t think apartments are going to be a good option now, especially if they don’t want to compete with foreign investors,” he said. “It’s better to save a little bit more [and wait].”

Mr Liu argues Australians concerned about rising house prices due to foreign investment should blame the government — not the Chinese.

“Australia is gathering investment from all over the world, your economy got a boost based on that,” he said. “Yes, local residents in Sydney or Melbourne might suffer a little bit but in the end it’s the all the government’s call.

“You want the investment, you introduce the money, now your residents are suffering because of your decision. It’s not one single factor that caused the situation.”

According to Mark Lauzon from Sotheby’s International Realty, the Chinese “came for the education and ended up staying for the lifestyle”.

“A lot of these couples arrived as single students, decided to start a career here after graduation and ended up marrying either another student from overseas or a local,” he said.

Mr Lauzon said he was currently selling a penthouse apartment in Waterloo owned by a couple from China. “Their penthouse is big enough for a family, but the vendors would like to move to a house or terrace to raise kids,” he said.

“In part, they are worried about having children on a high-floor apartment with balconies.

“They are hoping to stay in same area. The challenge for young families in Waterloo, Zetland and much of South Sydney is that there is a shortage of stock of single-family homes, and there aren’t many school catchments. They also look at Kensington and Surry Hills because there are not enough primary schools in this part of Sydney.

“People in South Sydney have really embraced apartment living. In terms of family-friendly, they prefer to look at terraces.

“Many of these vendors are very loyal to the area. They like this area because of its good infrastructure, transit, restaurants and shopping.”

James Pratt, director of auctions for Raine & Horne and J Pratt Realty, said a three-bedroom house in Zetland which recently broke the suburb price record went to upgraders.

“The buyers were Chinese, looking for a good place to raise a family,” he said.

“We are seeing Chinese upgraders at auctions in numbers I don’t recall seeing before. More and more, I am auctioning their units for them, and then see them bidding for the house they want to move to.”

Mr Pratt said so far this year he had sold around 26 entry-level apartments in South Sydney for Chinese-origin owners who were moving to a terrace or house. “Most of these buyers by now have Australian permanent residency,” he said.

Jackie Wang from Raine & Horne Ashfield said with the busiest time of the year, the spring selling season now here, she was expecting many more transactions over the next three months.

“Different from overseas Chinese buyers, local Chinese buyers are not bound by law to purchase brand new property, and they are more into existing homes,” she said.

“First home buyers are usually searching for old unit in a good location which can be owner occupied for a few years, then easy to rent out as investment once they are ready to upgrade to a house.

“Upgraders are more attracted to houses with nice features and space for the growing family. They live in a unit or apartment and are planning to upgrade to large semis or houses in the nearby area.

“From the recent sales around Ashfield area, I can see a lot of local Chinese upgrade buyers still have strong interest in Torrens title properties, especially the local upgraders.”

In just the past five years, Chinese investment has grown from 10 per cent to 25 per cent of all foreign real estate investment in Australia.

According to Gavin Norris, Australian head of Chinese real estate portal Juwai.com, there were potentially several thousand Chinese-origin households in this situation, “ready to move up the property ladder in the traditional Australian way”.

“Chinese buying in Sydney only really began in earnest in about 2009,” Mr Norris said.

“A home to live in while studying in Australia is the biggest driver of Chinese property buying in the big capital cities like Sydney. Now that the significant Chinese investment trend has passed the half-decade mark, these buyers are starting to age out of their first purchase. Many of them have married and are starting families.

“One out of every three people living in some Sydney suburbs, such as Haymarket and Ultimo, is a student from overseas. And 39 per cent of Sydney residents overall were actually born in another country — so this is potential a very large group of new buyers looking to purchase.

“The fact that so many of these buyers intend to hold onto their first purchase as an investment, rather than sell it to fund a larger new home, shows their frugality and dedication to real estate as an asset class.”

Negative equity risk for nearly 7% of Australian mortgage holders

From Australian Broker.

Across Australia, 311,000 (or 6.8% of) mortgage holders have been found to have little or no real equity in their home, according to a recent report from Roy Morgan.

The report, State of the Nation: Spotlight on Finance Risk, highlighted that this group of property owners is at particular risk if they have to sell or prices decline.

Broken down by state, mortgage customers in Western Australia were most at risk with 9.2% of homes valued less than or equal to the amount owed. NSW was the safest with only 5.1% of mortgage holders in the same situation.

Overall figures for each state found in the report are listed below:

  • NSW (5.1%)
  • TAS (6.1%)
  • VIC (6.3%)
  • SA (6.7%)
  • QLD (7.5%)
  • WA (9.2%)

One of the key trends revealed by the research was that lower value homes tended to face more equity risk. The value of homes owned by mortgage holders with little or no equity was $487,000 across Australia – compared to a nationwide average of $674,000 for all mortgage holders.

This trend was found across all states with figures found in the following graph:

“It tends to be at the lower end which seems to indicate maybe it’s the newer borrowers,” Norman Morris, industry communications director from Roy Morgan Research, told Australian Broker. “These sorts of numbers indicate there are people borrowing right up to the limit.”

While this could reflect on the duty of care that brokers had to customers, Morris said that these trends would present more of a problem if prices go down.

Compared with 2012 however, the figures have improved in the past four years.

“In 2012, the figure was 7.7%. Now it’s 6.8%. I would say that the main reason for that is housing and dwelling prices that they’ve been borrowing on have been going up fast.”

Density, sprawl, growth: how Australian cities have changed in the last 30 years

From The Conversation.

Since settlement, Australian cities have been shaped and reshaped by history, infrastructure, natural landscapes and – importantly – policy.

So, have our cities changed much in the last 30 years? Have consolidation policies had any effect? Have we contained sprawl? Yes, probably and maybe, according to our newly published research.

Reviving the centre

The great Australian baby boomer dream of home ownership caused our cities to spread out during the second half of the 20th century. Urban fringes expanded with affordable land releases, large residential blocks and cheap private transport.

By the 1980s, across Australia’s cities, the urban fringes were ever-expanding. Inner areas had become sparsely populated “doughnut cities”.

By the end of that decade urban researchers, planners, geographers and economists began to warn of looming environmental, social and housing affordability problems due to unrestrained sprawling growth.

Governments responded swiftly, focusing policy attention on urban consolidation through programs such as Greenstreet and Building Better Cities. Concerned individuals formed groups such as Smart Growth and New Urbanism to promote inner-city development and increased urban density.

Since this time, large- and small-scale policy interventions have attempted to repopulate the inner- and middle-urban areas. The common policy goal has been to encourage more compact, less sprawling cities. Subdivision, dual occupancy, infill development, smaller block sizes, inner-city apartments and the repurposing of non-residential buildings have all been used.

Mapping the changes

In a newly published paper, we map the changing shape of Australia’s five largest mainland cities from 1981 to 2011.

Across each of these cities, which together are home to 60% of Australians, there has been substantial, suburbanisation and re-urbanisation. In the last 20 years this has resulted in a repopulation of inner cities.

In Melbourne’s case, the return to the inner city has been particularly pronounced in the last decade. Here, the population jumped from around 3,000 to 4,000 people per km². The extent of this change is visualised in the chart below.

melbourne-densityMelbourne may well be the exemplar for inner-city rebirth. More than any other Australian city it demonstrates the 30-year turnaround from inner-city decline to densification.

Between 1981 and 1991 Melbourne became a classic “doughnut city”: population declining in inner areas, density increasing in the middle-ring suburbs, and growth steady in the outer suburbs. For example, in the inner 5km ring there was a decrease during this time of almost 200 people per km².

From 1991 to 2001, even though growth was still focused on the middle and outer areas, the inner area began to be repopulated. Overall, between 1981 and 2011 there were approximately 1,500 more people per square kilometre living in the inner 5km ring.

Over the last decade, greenfield development, infill and urban regeneration have increased urban density throughout Melbourne – as shown in the five-yearly map animation below.

Changes in Melbourne population density over the 30 years to 2011 (red is increasing, blue is decreasing). Author provided

While the turnarounds in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have been less marked than in Melbourne, they are all no longer “doughnut cities”. This means that where people live in these cities has changed.

Australia’s cities are now more densely populated – and we are much more likely to live in inner areas than we were 30 years ago.

A result of government policy?

We can probably attribute the changes in where urban Australians live to government consolidation policies.

The policy focus throughout the late 1980s and early 1990s was based on incentives to repopulate inner and middle areas.

Policies were changed from 2000 to increase population density across whole metropolitan areas. State and territory strategic plans aimed to promote urban consolidation, with a focus on the inner city.

State and territory plans now focus much more on specific zones throughout the whole of the city, including former industrial areas and surplus government land. New housing development occurs within these defined zones, particularly around transport and areas with urban-renewal potential.

South Australia’s 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide targets growth in “current urban lands”, along major transport corridors and hubs. Similarly, the Plan Melbourne – Metropolitan Planning Strategy plans to establish the “20-minute neighbourhood”, contain new housing within existing urban boundaries, and focus development in new urban renewal precincts.

The map visualisations reinforce the scale of this absolute growth across each of the five major Australian cities over the last 30 years.

Have we contained sprawl?

Our research would suggest urban-consolidation policies have slowed but not prevented sprawl, especially in the faster-growing cities like Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Sydney.

So, have we reached the point at which our cities are full? How can we accommodate future population growth? And do we need to focus our attention on new urban areas?

Containing and, more importantly, controlling sprawl may present the next big challenge.

Author: Neil Coffee, Senior Research Fellow in Health Geography, University of South Australia; Emma Baker, Associate Professor, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Adelaide; Jarrod Lange, Senior Research Consultant (GIS), Hugo Centre for Migration and Population Research, University of Adelaide

The UK is sinking deeper into property inequality – here’s why

From The Conversation.

Outrage has been mounting over the untaxed incomes of the global elite, foreign ownership of urban land and soaring rents in the private rental sector. Much of this boils down to two key matters: who owns property, and how they are treated.

The UK, it seems, is a place that makes it very easy for individuals to generate a great deal of wealth from property, with little concern for social justice or the provision of affordable housing.

But this problem is not uniquely British. Across the world – and particularly in many developing countries experiencing fast economic growth – capital is flowing rapidly into real estate. And increasingly, governments are waking up to the need to effectively capture some value from these investments, for the public good. Yet, as my research shows, this can be extremely difficult to achieve due to complex historical legacies around land, as well as deeply entrenched vested interests.

Consultants from the UK and other rich countries are often the first on hand to provide advice and propose systems of property and land taxation, to enable governments in poorer countries to bring in revenues that reflect the real value of developments. Meanwhile, ironically, the UK’s primary property tax – a monthly “council tax” paid by residents to local authorities – remains scandalously out of line with modern property values.


House prices are rising – but council tax isn’t (London, 1995 to 2015). Alasdair Rae, University of Sheffield

Of course, property inequality looks very different in British cities than it does in cities in developing countries. In many African cities, a clear majority of people live in slum conditions, the like of which are (thankfully) consigned to the past in Britain. Yet the property markets are being transformed by very similar processes.

International capital flows are central in both cases: wealthier migrants from low-income countries now based in the US and Europe often channel their earnings into untaxed property back home, while the UK solicits property investments from footloose international elites Whatever the context, the outcome is largely the same: luxury properties abound, often unoccupied and almost always undertaxed, while governments fail to provide proper incentives for developers to invest in cheap housing.

These issues are particularly concerning in poorer countries, not only because of the scale of inequalities and gaping absences of affordable housing, but also because investments in luxury properties divert funds from other sectors, which urgently need capital to make the nations’ economies more productive.

What to tax?

It seems clear that governments of both poor and rich countries need to find ways to reduce the appeal of massive investments in high-end property, and to spend more on housing and services for low-income groups. The question is: how?

Stamp duty is obviously one mechanism for capturing some of the value of property, but as this is a one-off payment it deals with only part of the problem. Updating the council tax is an important step in the UK – though this will be very politically difficult.

More fundamentally, however, simply updating council tax bands sidesteps major questions about exactly what we should be taxing when we tax property. Given the state of the UK property market, a proper debate is needed on these issues. But as this is also a global issue, the UN’s biggest conference on urban development issues in 20 years should also provide a forum for discussing this at the global level.

One possibility that has aroused significant interest is a land value tax. The idea is that public investments in infrastructure – rather than private individuals’ effort – make land valuable. So, the government should “recapture” this value for further public investment, by taxing property owners a proportion of the annual rental value of their land.


Less vacant land. Sinkdd/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Some argue that taxing land also encourages people to use land productively, and deters speculation; in other words, if you are paying a relatively large amount of tax on a plot of land, you will want to make the best possible use of that land (by building a tall tower, for example), in order to maximise your profit.

By contrast, taxing buildings discourages investment and development, so many proponents of land value taxation argue that structures should simply be ignored. There is a certain progressive logic to this: for the most part, growth in land value provides a windfall to the owner, so it seems like a fair revenue to tax.

Should buildings be off the hook?

But a land value tax could have some undesirable consequences: exempting buildings from taxation encourages developers to build for maximum profit – and this often means constructing expensive, luxury residences for wealthy investors. What’s more, large buildings impose on the surrounding residents and public spaces in a number of ways which can be seen to warrant taxation – for example by blocking light, generating traffic and adding to pollution and noise.

In countries where forms of land taxation are relatively high, but building taxes small or non-existent, there is a tendency to speculate on buildings for which there is no obvious demand. This can be particularly harmful when there isn’t sufficient public infrastructure or services to support these looming edifices.

If we consider property tax as a means of redistributing wealth from the rich to the less well-off, then it makes sense to tax buildings. After all, why should one person be able to own a large, immovable asset without paying tax on it, when others pay tax on so many goods, services and incomes? Is it really fair for the residents of high-rise developments to pay a small fraction of a land value tax, regardless of the actual value of the luxurious apartment which they occupy (or, more accurately, don’t occupy)?

No – taxing property wealth is not only about taxing the windfall of increased land values: it is about acknowledging that the playing field of society is not level, and that the rich should pay more because they can. And it’s not just a question of social justice – it’s also about the kinds of incentives we want to create for investment, and the kinds of lifestyles that this promotes. We should not be so keen to encourage intensive investment in land that we exempt buildings – no matter how extravagant and unnecessary – from any kind of tax.

In many developing countries, innovative approaches to valuing and taxing property are being proposed and piloted, and concerted efforts are being made to overcome political resistance. The UK would do well to follow suit and bring its system of property taxation into the 21st century.

Politicians fear these issues, and public discussions about property tax has fallen all but silent since the failure of the previous Labour government’s “mansion tax”. No solution is simple; but not talking about it won’t solve anything at all.

Author: Tom Goodfellow, Lecturer, University of Sheffield

Housing Affordability at ‘Crisis Levels’

From The Real Estate Conversation.

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has spoken about the decline in Australia’s housing affordability, saying we are ‘a nation that can no longer house its own children.’

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has delivered a passionate speech at left-leaning public-policy think tank, the McKell Institute, outlining the decline in the middle class in Australia, and listing worsening housing affordability as one of the main problems facing an increasingly pressured middle class.

Housing-Key

In the speech, Bowen said Australians’ aspirations for home ownership were perhaps stronger than anywhere else in the world, but that it was becoming “an aspiration which, for far too many, is becoming a pipe dream.”

“Overall home ownership in Australia is at a 60-year low,” said Bowen.

“In 1982, 62 per cent of people aged 25-34 owned their own home. By 2012, this had collapsed down to just 42 per cent,” he said, citing the recent HILDA report.

People today are paying 15 times their annual income to purchase a new home, said Bowen, compared with five times 25 years ago.

“Young people unable to crack into the housing market strips them of one of the most fundamental wealth drivers through their lifetime,” said Bowen, concluding that housing affordability is at “crisis levels”.

Bowen says Australian who can not afford to buy their own home are cut off from an important source of capital, as many fulfill their aspirations by borrowing against the family home.

“For many it (home ownership) is a means to a broader aspiration, of access to the capital which is built into the family home,” said Bowen.

Bowen believes the government should be playing a greater role in improving housing affordability.

“At the Federal level, our tax system continues to provide very generous tax concessions to property investors and zero assistance to first home buyers,” he said, explaining that Labor’s changes proposed during the recent election campaign were designed to deliver more balance to home owner and investor incentives.

“Our policy to limit negative gearing to new properties puts first home buyers on a more level playing field with investors, provides a stimulant to new construction to add to supply and, together with capital gains tax reform, adds $37 billion to the budget over the next ten years,” he said.

The Property Council has welcomed the Shadow Treasurer’s commitment to make housing affordability a primary policy issue for the Opposition.

“Mr Bowen’s speech recognises a central tenet of the Australian success story: high rates of home ownership across all parts of Australian life are critical to social cohesion and economic security”, said Ken Morrison, Chief Executive of the Property Council of Australia.

Morrison said he agrees it’s important that the next generation is not priced out of the housing market, but said he disagrees with the Shadow Treasurer about the means to achieve this.

“While we have differences with the Opposition about its tax policy for housing, we take this speech as an invitation to explore other areas where we can encourage high rates of home ownership and increased housing supply,” said Morrison.

“Our concern about the Opposition’s current negative gearing policy is that it is not an answer to the worsening state of housing affordability,” said Morrison.

“The McKell Institute and the Grattan Institute are the Opposition’s biggest supporters of its negative gearing policy, but even they concede that the impact on house prices will be minimal. McKell argues it will curtail prices by a modest 0.5 per cent a year and Grattan argues a 2 per cent fall in the price of housing,” Morrison said.

Morrison said he believes that changes to stamp duties would be a more effective tool in addressing housing affordability.

“Our challenge is supply and finding sensible ways to reduce costs in the market place. It is worth noting that the biggest beneficiaries of high house prices are state governments who are collecting enormous stamp duty and land tax receipts,” said Morrison.

 

Population On The Rise – Melbourne To Become Largest City

The ABS released their latest population data today, based on March 2016.  Sustained population and household growth is expected, which will support property values for some time to come. We have more than 9.2 million households and recent growth has been supported by net migration.

Total population is north of 24 million and overall Australia’s population grew by 327,600 people (1.4 per cent). Of this, net overseas migration added 180,800 people to the population (2 per cent higher than the previous year), and accounted for 55 per cent of Australia’s total population growth.

Natural increase contributed 146,800 additional people to Australia’s population, made up of 304,300 births (1.6 per cent lower than the previous year) and 157,500 deaths (1.7 per cent higher).

Over the year, net overseas migration was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, whilst natural increase was the major contributor in all other states and territories.

pop-by-stateVictoria’s population has hit 6 million growing by 1.9 per cent, adding an extra 114,900 people to the population. This is the fastest population growth for Victoria since 2009 and is well above Australia’s growth rate of 1.4 per cent. New South Wales was the next fastest state, increasing by 1.4 per cent. Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory were not far behind, with both growing at 1.3 per cent.

Net overseas migration was the main contributor to growth in Victoria, adding 62,800 people to the population over the year ending March 2016. The remainder of Victoria’s population change was explained by natural increase (+37,600) and net interstate migration (+14,500).

The Victorian population is projected to reach 7 million in 2024 and the forward projections to 2036 show more households in Greater Melbourne than Greater Sydney.

pop-by-state-2036-citiesOverall household  estimates for 2036 show a population of more than 12 million households, up from 9.2 million in March 2016.

pop-by-state-states-2036Of course these long range estimates are indications only, but it would appear demand for property will be sustained – another reason why it is unlikely we will see a major property correction anytime soon.

 

Demand For Property “Safe As Houses”

As we finalise the next edition of the Property Imperative, we turn to the latest survey results, looking at household attitudes to property. The growth in volume of loans may be down a little, but their appetite for property is still strong. Recent auction results also underscore this. Today we compare the cross-segment survey responses, before in later posts diving into the more detailed results.

A quick reminder, we use the results from our 26,000 household surveys, and segment the results as described in the “segment cookbook“.

First we look at home price expectations.  Overall households are quite bullish on future capital growth, with portfolio investors most confident (68% expect a rise), 67% of solo investors and 58% of up traders expecting further gains. More than half of holders, and first time buyers also think prices will rise. Down traders are the least positive, here 20% think prices will continue to rise. There were some state variations, but we won’t discuss that here, other than to say NSW and VIC seem most bullish.

survey-sep-2016-pricesDemand for finance is also quite strong, with 92% of portfolio investors looking to borrow more (up from 87% a year ago) and 58% of solo investors up from 51% a year ago also seeking to borrow. Looking at first time buyers, 64% are seeking to borrow, compared with 60% a year ago. Those who are refinancing and borrowing more is also up, 38% compared with 30% a year ago.

survey-sep-2016-borrowInvestors, down traders and refinancers are most likely to transact in the next 12 months. 67% of portfolio investors are looking to buy another property, 49% of solo investors, and 40% of refinancers are in the market. The proportion of first time buyers continues to sit around 9%.  As we will see in later posts, there are more barriers to getting a loan now, thanks to tighter underwriting standards.

survey-sep-2016-transactFirst time buyers are saving hard (despite low deposit account rates and flat incomes), 76% compared with 72% a year ago. The proportion of want to buys (not actively seeking to buy) who are saving is down from 21% a year ago to 19% now. The combination of high prices, tighter lending standards and limited incomes all work against them.

survey-sep-2016-savingFinally, in the overview, those seeking to refinance are most likely to use a mortgage broker (79%, compared with 75% a year ago), then first time buyers (61%) and portfolio investors (51%). Holders apart, down traders are the least likely to seek assistance from a mortgage broker.

survey-sep-2016-use-brokerSo, we are still seeing strong demand for property. The question is whether there is supply of property, and mortgages to meet the demand. Our results also confirm that property investors are back in the game.

Services Employment Up, Economic Outcomes Down

In a CEDA speech “The Changing Nature of the Australian Workforce“, Alexandra Heath, Head of Economic Analysis Department, RBA has highlighted the rise in services sector employment. Much of this is related to a burgeoning healthcare sector, thanks to demographic shifts. Then we see growth in property, and property related sectors. Many other sectors are shrinking.

But we would stress that wages have risen little in the healthcare sector, which is one reason why household income is static, and employment in this sector, (and the property sector), whilst important, does not create new wealth, it merely transfers existing wealth. This lack of new wealth creation is why growth is under pressure. This is a the structural issue which needs to be addressed.

The decline in the share of routine manual jobs in industries such as agriculture and manufacturing as a result of technological change has had a long history (Graph 2). The offsetting increase has been in service sector jobs.

Graph 2
Graph 2: Employment by Industry

The health care & social assistance industry has made the largest contribution to employment growth over the past 15 years or so, and most of this has been in non-routine work (Graph 3). After health care, the two industries that have made the largest contributions to growth in non-routine jobs over this period are professional, scientific & technical services and education & training.

Graph 3
Graph 3: Industry Employment by Skill Type

Some of the increase in health care employment is related to the ageing of the population. Similar demographic trends are also likely to have contributed to the strong increase in employment in social assistance because it includes in-home support services. The stability of relative wages in the health sector over most of the past 15 years suggests that the expansion of demand for health care workers has been more or less met by an increase in the number of people who are able to work in the sector (Graph 4). The vocational education and training system has played an important role in providing qualifications in a range of these occupations, including child care, aged care and occupational therapy.

Graph 4
Graph 4: Changes in Relative Wage Levels

In contrast, education & training, construction and mining have all experienced a trend increase in their relative wages over the past 15 years or so. This suggests that the supply of workers with the right skills has not kept up with the increase in demand from these industries. In the case of mining and construction, the mining boom is an important part of the story (Kent 2016).

The relative wages for professional, scientific and technical services increased over the 5 years to 2013, but have since fallen. One possible explanation for this is that there was some difficulty meeting increasing demand and that supply of qualified workers responded with a lag. Another possibility is that rapid technological change has meant that some of the growth in employment in this industry has been in entirely new jobs that take some time to be captured in some wage measures.