Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Edwin, our property insider and I explore the question of under quoting and include original footage showing it in action! We also discuss the interpretation of data, and the potential impact of the latest developments in China.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.
First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).
Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.
Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.
But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.
Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Our latest dissection of the property market – at the start of an important week in the future of housing with our property insider Edwin Almeida.
We look at the range of serious issues ahead, with an uptick in potential visitors to Australia, a small rise in listings, and a fall in rental availability as some of the factors crimping property investors bite.
We also look at the proposed rental freeze legislation from the Greens.
In such an important week, we will be live tomorrow with Edwin and taking questions on these critical issues. https://youtube.com/live/KpdkhMrhl_k
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The outgoing RBA Governor appeared before the House Economics Committee on Friday. We look at some of the key themes, including the trajectory of interest rates and inflation, rental control, productivity, bank profits and the impact of rising gas prices.
Interestingly he did suggest the RBA had done too much through COVID and this included the creation of too much liquidity, and too low rates – as insurance – which was not ultimately needed!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The Australian economy has been relatively stable in the face of the higher interest rates, until now but cracks may be forming as new data arrives. Our mortgage stress analysis which we reported on earlier is one.
Now Payroll jobs data says the same.
The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) receives payroll information from employers with Single Touch Payroll (STP) enabled payroll and accounting software each time the employer runs its payroll. The ATO provides selected employer and job level data items from the STP system to the ABS to produce statistics.
And according to the ABS Payroll jobs fell 0.2 per cent in the month to 15 July 2023, following a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month.
I should say Payroll jobs are not seasonally adjusted and are predominantly employee jobs paid through payrolls. Some industries, such as Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction, have high proportions of owner managers who are not included in payroll reporting.
So we should note that in each release, as more complete data are received, payroll job estimates are revised. The magnitude of revisions can vary at some points of the year, such as the end of the financial year and calendar year in line with changes in the reporting activity of businesses.
That said, the ABS says “The latest month of data showed some slowing in jobs growth around the school holidays, together with the end of financial year seasonality we usually see in payroll reporting.”
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers.
No surprise then that Britain’s property market showed signs of slowing to a crawl after a jump in mortgage costs reduced both buyer demand and the volume of sales. The figures add to evidence that the housing market is weakening after the quickest series of increases in interest rates lifted the cost of mortgages. Lenders including Nationwide and Halifax say property prices are falling, and some expect a peak-to-trough slump of 10% to 12% is “very likely.”
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey for July 2023 says at the national level, new buyer enquiries posted a figure of -45%, like last month’s figure of -46%. As a result, this metric continues to signal a sharp downturn in buyer demand following the latest escalation in mortgage interest rates. When viewed at the level of the English regions and the four nations, all parts of the UK display a firmly negative return for new buyer enquiries over the month.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA held the cash rate again, while the ABS reported strong mortgage refinance, though lower credit growth, and lower building approvals. And Consumer Confidence moved slightly higher, but still in negative territory.
You can join my live show later today as I discuss the latest with Damien Klassen from Nucleus Wealth.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
More from our property insider as we look at the latest from the market. Are listings really on their way up?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
New research from NAB suggests the average Australian feels only “moderately” stressed about money or making ends meet, but also only “moderately” comfortable they are on top of their finances, could manage a major unexpected expense, and are on track to have enough money for their future financial needs. But averages mask.
They say over 4 in 10 (43%) Australians experienced some form of financial hardship in Q2, and is now up from 29% in early-2022 amid rising inflation and higher interest rates. Money is “very much” a source of stress for 1 in 3 Australians, and 1 in 4 are struggling “very much” to make ends meet.
Financial hardship can happen at any time, and is often the result of sickness, job loss or over-commitment, but rising interest rates and cost of living is now also causing financial distress in more households.
The worsening financial situation reflects a number of factors. First, the roughly one-third of households with a mortgage are obviously being smashed by the RBA’s 4.0% of interest rate hikes, which has lifted variable mortgage repayments by about 50%. The situation facing this cohort will only worsen if the RBA hikes further. There are also around 500,000 fixed rate mortgages that will expire over the second half of this year, which will reset these mortgages from rates of around 2% to variable rates approaching 7%:
Second, the roughly one third of renting households are experiencing explosive rental growth, especially across the major capital cities: Rental inflation will remain turbo-charged given the federal government is running the biggest immigration program in history amid falling housing construction rates:
Finally, overall cost-of-living pressures are impacting all cohorts, driven by the hyperinflation in energy (gas and electricity) prices along east coast Australia.
3 in 10 Australians do “not at all” feel they could manage a major unexpected expense, and 1 in 5 do “not at all” feel on top of their day to day finances, or believe they are on track to have enough money to provide for their financial needs in the future.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell in June, suggesting consumers are hunkering down in response to the Reserve Bank’s 12 interest-rate increases in 15 months.
Sales declined 0.8% from a month earlier, compared with estimates for a flat reading, and erased all of their gains in May, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Friday. The weakness was driven by department stores and clothing and footwear, the bureau said.
Trend estimates from July 2022 onwards show that underlying growth in retail spending slowed considerably towards the end of 2022, with only modest trend growth in recent months.
The result bolsters the case for the RBA to stand pat on Tuesday for a second-straight meeting after inflation data two days ago showed a cooling of prices. Money markets trimmed bets for a final rate hike this year and the policy-sensitive three-year government bond yield pared gains.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.