Social Trends – Page 4 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is The RBA About To Pivot On Interest Rates?

The RBA after the September monetary policy meeting suggested that the official cash rate would remain on hold for the foreseeable future, noting that the underlying inflation rate of 3.9% over the year to the June quarter “is still some way above the midpoint of the 2%–3% target range”.

The RBA has started to talk about scenarios, and this was reemphasised in the minutes of the meeting which was released Tuesday. As well as their current stance, the Minutes considered two scenarios that would justify financial conditions needing to be less restrictive than currently:

(i) if the economy proved to be significantly weaker than expected and this placed more downward pressure on underlying inflation than expected (due to higher household savings and/or if the labour market weakened more sharply than forecast); or

(ii) if inflation proved less persistent than assumed, even without weaker-than-expected activity.

So that begs the question, is the RBA about to pivot?

Well, CBA’s Gareth Aird who has been consistently forecasting rate cuts sooner for months now, than most of the other bank economists (I wonder why) suggests that We believe the introduction of these two scenarios that would justify less restrictive financial conditions provide an insight into the Board’s reaction function that could see the RBA commence an easing cycle this calendar year (in line with our base case).

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at an event hosted by the Walkley Foundation said that despite the September minutes removing the line that “it was unlikely that the cash rate target would be reduced in the short term” the Bank had not change its tune arguing that its meeting minutes were not a particularly dovish message. The minutes also showed that board members discussed scenarios whereby interest rates risked remaining higher for longer or could be tightened further, conferring further pain on borrowers. It all boils back to the demand supply problem in the economy, where if demand remained stronger (perhaps thanks to tax cuts or government handouts – that’s my sidenote) or stronger than expected performance of the jobs market. In this case the cash rate might need to be noticeably higher than the market path underpinning the August forecasts.

So bottom line, the RBA minutes does not change the game on quick rate cuts, and we must continue to wrestle with higher for longer.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Who’s Telling Porkies Now?

The unelected, neo-liberal biased International Monetary Fund, one among many technocrat groups which try to impose top-down advice based on their underlying philosophy, recently released their latest advice relating to Australia. Their concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country.

This time the IMF gave a mixed assessment of recent government budgets and whether Treasurer Jim Chalmers and his state counterparts were helping the RBA to tame Australia’s worst inflation outbreak in decades, because they warned the federal and state governments that any further unexpected rise in spending will force the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates high, and that future cost-of-living relief needs to be targeted.

We are certainly seeing some evidence of that in our household surveys, the findings of which I will discuss on Tuesday on my live show at 8pm Sydney time. Some are benefiting from the payments, despite having strong cash flow and savings, whereas for those under financial pressure, the rebates are hardly touching the sides, creating a more unequal story financially speaking. Indeed, One in four mortgage holders have had to skip paying for another expense to prioritise keeping a roof over their head, according to Finder.

This is an important point, because its Dr Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher have hinted that they plan to announce another round of household subsidies before the next federal election, as Labor tries to placate voter anger over high inflation.

They also called for a complete overhaul of Australia’s tax system and suggested the government phase out $52 billion of superannuation tax concessions and the $19 billion capital gains tax discount to fund a reduction in personal income and company tax rates.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Save Free Speech: Fight The Disinformation Bill!

This is an edited version of a recent live show I did on Adam Stokes channel relating to the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate referred the provisions of the bill to the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee for report by 25 November 2024.

You have JUST SEVEN Days! as submissions close on the 30 September 2024.

This bill would severely curtain unfettered free speech by putting onerous responsibilities on social media platforms across issues as wide as electoral, health, social and economic. In practice the Government will define “truth” and will essential silence alternative voices.

You have a limited opportunity to make your views know before 1984 type conditions arrive!

Adams Live stream: https://youtu.be/jhiRS7_TE9Y

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/MisandDisinfobill

Contact details:

Committee Secretary
Senate Standing Committees on Environment and Communications
PO Box 6100
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600

Phone: +61 2 6277 3526
ec.sen@aph.gov.au

https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/say-no-albaneses-orwellian-disapproved-information-censorship-bill

About this inquiry: The bill proposes to amend the Broadcasting Services Act 1992 and would make consequential amendments to other Acts to establish a new framework to safeguard against serious harms caused by misinformation or disinformation.

The bill would provide the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) with new regulatory powers to require digital communications platform providers to take steps to manage the risk that misinformation and disinformation on digital communications platforms poses in Australia. These would include obligations on providers to assess and report on risks relating to misinformation and disinformation, to publish their policy in relation to managing misinformation and disinformation, and develop and publish a media literacy plan.

The bill would also provide ACMA with new information gathering, record keeping, code registration and standard making powers to oversee digital communications platform providers.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!

In the past 48 hours we had a no change interest rate decision from the RBA and monthly headline inflation which dropped within the target 2-3% target range from the partial services heavy monthly data release, thanks to temporary Government handout to ease costs of living so window dressing the results, but which the RBA says they will look through in the policy deliberations.

The RBA, is facing increasing pressures at home to lower borrowing costs, with politicians sparring over the outlook on interest rates ahead of an election due by May 2025. But Bullock said the RBA won’t be dragged into politics as it is splitting with a global easing cycle as it waits for inflation to abate.

So today I want to look at the RBA statement, then delve into the detail from the inflation numbers and finally try to figure out what this all means.

The RBA last month warned the rapid rise in government outlays was one of the factors prolonging high inflation. The bank’s statement was a political headache for Dr Chalmers, and Ms Bullock subsequently softened the central bank’s stance, saying government spending was not the “main game” for inflation.

At the federal level, government spending on childcare, aged care and disability care surged by more than 20 per cent over the past year, while spending on public servant wages jumped 14.5 per cent. Spending on the NDIS has been a major driver of the explosion in government spending. The scheme, which is forecast to cost $49 billion this financial year, is growing at about 20 per cent per year and is on track to cost more than the age pension within a decade.

Since the 2019 calendar year, the underlying cost base in the construction sector has grown by a whopping 36 per cent, compared to around 21 per cent in the non-mining market sector as a whole.

As the public sector expands, productivity growth would temporarily slow as more resources poured into sectors such as healthcare and education, where productivity is about one-third lower than the private sector.