Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Join us for a live discussion as I explore the latest in market trends with Tony Locantro from Alto Capital in Perth. Given recent market falls, rises in interest rates in many Western countries, and easing of home prices, how should be read the current markets, and prepare for the next wave?
Alto Capital is a full service investment and corporate advisory firm.
You can ask a question live.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In our weekly market review, we survey trends in the US, then Europe, Asia, and Australia, as well a covering developments in Oil, Gold and Crypto. The main take-out is the continuing uncertainty pertaining to inflation, and interest rates, as well as conflict in Ukraine. The fallout is already significant, with global food prices reach a new all time high, the UN has reported.
The Dow ended higher Friday, but that wasn’t enough to prevent a weekly loss as tech snapped its winning streak under pressure from surging Treasury yields following further details on the Federal Reserve’s plan to rein in inflation.
Finally in Crypto, Bitcoin is nowhere near where it was just five months ago – at that time in November of 2021, the world’s number one digital asset was trading for about $68,000 per unit – the currency has managed to get itself out of the doldrums and spike into the mid to high $40,000 ranges, a solid improvement over the $37,000 it was trading for in mid-March.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
An edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest market trends with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds, and Nucleus Wealth. What’s happening in the markets, and where are they heading?
0:00 Start
0:18 Introduction
1:20 Damien Joins
2:00 Market Expectations On Rates
5:30 Yield Curve Inversion
20:00 Oil and Electric Vehicles
35:50 Investment Platform Traps
58:00 Crypto/Stablecoins
1:05 CBDC
1:10 Inflation
1:18 Gold
1:25 Active versus Passive
1:30 Market Psychology
1:35 Summary and Close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join us for a live discussion as I explore the latest market trends with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds, and Nucleus Wealth. What’s happening in the markets, and where are they heading?
You can ask a question live via YouTube chat.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Investors in Australia are exposed to considerable risks thanks to the ineffective regulatory environment which has been designed to look after the major financial players as opposed to investors. And remember thanks to the forced superannuation savings scheme, we are forced to comply.
So Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party and I discuss what needs to be done to make this an election issue.
The fight to clean out financial corruption in Australia – Citizens Party – Live Stream – 31 Mar 22 https://youtu.be/Hnxya-NjHIY
Mobilise! Call MPs in Canberra – demand Labor and Liberals commit to full compensation for Sterling victims
All Australians who support the need to clean up financial corruption, which must include holding ASIC to account for its failures as a regulator, are urged to join in making phone calls this week to the Canberra offices of the Prime Minister, Opposition Leader, Finance Minister, Shadow Finance Minister, and Shadow Minister for Financial Services.
Demand they commit to paying full compensation to Sterling First-Silverlink victims through an Act of Grace payment by the Finance Department – the total cost is $18 million plus interest and expenses.
Demand the Labor Party politicians make this an election pledge.
Tell the politicians (or tell their staff to pass on the message):
• Full compensation is absolutely necessary, for the survival of the elderly and frail victims, who all face eviction and homelessness; and for justice for the victims.
• ASIC failed these victims, who only thought they had paid their rent in advance for the rest of their lives, and didn’t know they were in a managed investment scheme – BUT ASIC DID!
• It is the government’s responsibility that ASIC is a weak and ineffective regulator, due to its “buyer beware” ideology (if you get ripped off it’s your own fault), therefore the government is responsible for ASIC’s failures and for compensating its victims.
• The so-called Compensation Scheme of Last Resort (CSLR) does not yet exist, and under current plans it does not cover the Sterling victims; even if Labor expands the scheme, it is adjudicated by the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA), which is another agency that is rigged against financial victims and in favour of the perpetrators.
• As the government has the mechanism of an Act of Grace payment to compensate people, it should man up and do so immediately, and then the Sterling case must become the catalyst to overhaul ASIC and make it a proper regulator with teeth, feared by financial predators.
The politicians to call immediately:
Prime Minister Scott Morrison: (02) 6277 7700
Finance Minister Simon Birmingham (02) 6277 7400
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese (02) 6277 4022
Shadow Finance Minister
Senator Katy Gallagher (02) 6277 3456
Shadow Minister for Financial Services
Stephen Jones (02) 6277 4661
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In today’s weekly market review, we tour the major markets to see what happened this week. Overall, the markets are in dip-buying mode, even as inflation roars higher and rate hikes are likely to become more aggressive.
New York Fed president John Williams said that if the central bank needs to raise rates by a half point, it should — reinforcing comments by Fed chairman Jerome Powell and other officials over the past week.
The Fed’s steps to contain inflation are “what ultimately will drive a more aggressive inversion of the curve, which we think is coming quite quickly,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments global head of fixed income Gene Tannuzzo told Bloomberg.
But that doesn’t necessarily signal a recession, since “this is a very different cycle and the first one in over 30 years where the Fed is playing catch-up to inflation,” he added. Despite the strong correlations in the past, as I discussed the other day.
Economists at both Citibank and Bank of America said they now expect the Fed to lift its key rate in multiple 50-basis-point increments.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
ASIC has published some important information about Social Media Influencers and how they often abuse the law, to trick people into buying financial products. We look at the case studies they posit, and also cal out the elephant in the room.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest weekly market update, and what is really going on.
All three major US benchmarks surged higher into the close, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their best weeks since November 2020.
Equity transactions spiked at the open as the expiry of stocks and index options collided with that of index futures in a quarterly event known as triple witching. Roughly $US3.5 trillion of single-stock and index-level options were estimated to expire Friday, so the market is likely distorted by these technical issues. This triple witching — when stock options, stock index futures, and index option contracts expire on the same day — usually triggers wild moves as investors move out of old positions and take new ones.
Growth sectors of the market like tech were also helped by falling interest rates even as Fed officials urged the central bank to do even more.
The rally in the broader market has stoked debate on whether this is the start of a bottoming process, or further downside lies ahead.
Market technicians, however, urge caution on reading too much into the rally as options expiry tends to muddy market movements. Technical indicators including volumes and market breadth have yet to improve significantly to signal that the market is establishing a bottom.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
RBA Governor Phil Lowe has just delivered a speech entitled “Recent Economic Developments”, where he pushed back against predictions of imminent rate rises, but noted that “it is plausible the cash rate will be increased later this year”
RBA Lowe said “I recognise that there is a risk to waiting too long, especially in a world with overlapping supply shocks and a high headline inflation rate. But there is also a risk of moving too early.” Inflation – which has climbed to 3.5 per cent in Australia could climb towards 5 per cent by the middle of the year.
The take out is that RBA won’t lift the cash rate until it sees evidence that wage growth has risen above 3%, which is unlikely to be achieved until late this year. The bank will take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, which is at odds with market expectations.
Financial markets and many economists expect the RBA to start lifting interest rates, currently at 0.1 per cent, as early as June because of the building inflation pressures across the economy.
Economists at the NAB on Tuesday became the latest to pull forward their interest rate expectations, tipping three rate rises through the second half of the year.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/