The Volatility Squeeze

We continue to see massive swings in prices, and I need to remind you that while major players continue to benefit from these wild gyrations in perceived value – as shown in recent trading results, (not least because they can programme trades using algos, and harvest income from the movements) – retail investors hardly benefit, because they are always behind the trade, unable to benefit from the dark pools and high-speed trading. It is an unequal game.

Take Friday, for example, where U.S. stocks rallied with the Dow posting its biggest one-day percentage gain since Jan. 6, as shares of Apple surged more than 4% after upbeat results and U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market.

Adding to the bullish momentum, regional bank shares rebounded from declines tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. Analysts upgraded a number of lenders they said were oversold. PacWest Bancorp rallied 81.7% and Western Alliance Bancorp jumped 49.2%, while the KBW regional bank index advanced 4.7%.

Apple’s quarterly results also cheered investors worried about a potential recession. The iPhone maker’s shares hit their highest level in about nine months, and the stock ended up 4.7% in its biggest daily percentage gain since November. The stock was the biggest positive influence on all three major U.S. stock indexes.

The U.S. Labor Department report showed job growth accelerated in April and wage gains increased solidly, suggesting the labor market has stayed strong despite recent interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

All in all, the wild market rides continues…

CONTENT

0.00 Start
0.13 Introduction
1:00 US Markets
2:10 US Labor Markets
6:30 US Earnings
7:00 Europe
9:05 Oil
9:30 Gold
11:57 Asia
13:52 Australia
17:00 Crypto
17:50 Summary and Close

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now With Damien Klassen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds, Damien Klassen. Where are the markets heading, and what are the chances there will be a policy mistake as rates are taken higher?

You can ask a question live.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Amplified Concerns Signals Further Market Falls Ahead!

In the latest market update, we look at stronger economic data from the US driving inflation and FED rates higher. We also cover Europe, Asia and Australia. Risks seem elevated with regards to future market action! A wake-up call to Bulls?

CONTENTS

0:00 Introduction
1:30 Earnings and PEG
6:24 PCE Read
9:45 New Home Sales
11:39 US Markets
14:15 Oil Prices And the USD
17:10 European Markets
19:35 Asian Markets
21:20 Australian Market
23:54 Crypto
24:11 Summary and Conclusion

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live 8pm Sydney Tonight: Investing Now With Damien Klassen

https://youtube.com/live/VxPRZxt68Pg

https://youtube.com/live/VxPRZxt68Pg

Join me for a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds And Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we look at the current market movements and what might be ahead.

You can ask a question live!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Beware Data Is Not Neutral!

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Any incoming data requires interpretation to make sense. And the truth is, factors like recency bias, expectations, and hopium can all influence how newsis interpreted, and decisions made. We saw this on Friday when US markets read the data as signs of a slowing economy, and immediately went to the FED easing rate rises, despite earlier news that they are keeping at the rate rising until inflation is crimped. Treasury yields fell sharply as investors continued to price in the step down in the pace of rate hikes at the Fed’s meeting next month.

But I think the central bank will need to see further slowing of price increases in the December inflation report, due out next week, before deciding whether to slow its next rate hike. It raised rates 50 basis points in December.And future earnings expectations are likely overdone for now, so perhaps markets were one sided in their interpretation of the data. In the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting [released] this week, it was unanimous among members of the FOMC group that they are going to keep interest rates high all year long. We will see.

CONTENTS

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:30 Data is not Neutral
1:30 US Jobs Report and Macro
3:40 US Markets
7:40 Oil Down
10:20 Gas Down
12:35 Europe
14:00 China and Asia
18:00 “N” Shaped Recovery
19:00 Australian Market
20:19 Gold too high?
21:40 Crypto Bearish
23:25 Summary and Close

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay 2023 Investing Outlook With Damien Klassen

This is an edited edition of my recent live show, where I discussed the outlook for 2023 investing with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments At Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Buckle Up! 2023’s Bumpy Ride Ahead…

At the end of the year, we can look back and pick over the coals of the old and look ahead to the new. But of course, it’s an artificial delineation, and the forces mustering at the end of the old year such as recession risk, rising interest rates in response to inflation, Ukraine and COIVD all are still in play.

Remember U.S. stocks just polished off their worst year since 2008 with a loss on Friday, bringing the year-to-date decline for the S&P 500 to 19.4%, its largest calendar-year drop since 2008. The only years where stocks fared worse were 2002, 1974 and 2008. The same holds true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which shed 8.8% this year, and the Nasdaq Composite, which lost 33.1%.

As previously high-flying megacap technology stocks and other interest-rate sensitive assets crumbled, value stocks outperformed this year, sending the Dow to its biggest calendar-year outperformance vs. the Nasdaq since 2000. The blue-chip gauge also recorded its biggest outperformance vs. the S&P 500 since the index’s creation. Energy stocks were a lone bright spot, as the S&P 500 energy sector recorded its best year on record with a 59% gain.

CONTENTS

0:00 Start
0:16 Introduction
0:30 Annual Performance
1:53 US$
2:50 Bonds And Stocks Fall
6:15 Oil
6:40 Gold
7:00 Bitcoin and Gold Compared
8:50 Europe and UK
11:09 China And COVID
11:35 Australia
13:22 Recession Scenarios
19:42 Factors To Consider
24:15 Regulating Crypto
26:04 Conclusion and Close

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

It’s More About Marketing Than Markets…

Forecasts for 2022 were wrong, so wrong, so what about 2023? Perhaps it is not about being right, but more about marketing? So, in that context, are forecasts worth the paper they are written on, and should anyone care?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

A Real Deep Perspective On Crypto…

I caught up with the CEO of BTC Markets to discuss the broader perspectives on Crypto in the light of FTX.

https://www.btcmarkets.net/about-us

Perhaps we should be careful not to put the baby out with the bathwater!

“Our vision is to build the digital financial infrastructure for the future. We are moving forward with that overarching and audacious strategy and can clearly see how this will roll out.” Caroline Bowler CEO, BTC Markets

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Spend, Spend, Spend, In 2023 With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we walk through the key charts as we come to the end of 2022. So, what might 2023 look like?

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Links to Tarric’s charts and recent articles:

https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-9th-december?sd=pf

https://avidcom.substack.com/p/how-long-can-australians-keep-spending