This is an edited version of a live discussion, Adam Stokes, a crypto advocate in which we discussed the recent halving, and what may happen next.
Last weekend marked the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins. While the short-term impact may be muted, long-term investors remain optimistic due to its historical correlation with price surges. But Bitcoin remains trapped within the consolidation phase that began in March. If a fresh wave of selling erupts due to global events, the critical support at $60,000 will be in focus.
Since last summer, Bitcoin has been heavily influenced by ETF inflows. Investors have placed more than $US12 billion into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds listed in the United States in the last month alone. Initially, spot Bitcoin ETF anticipation drove the price. Later, the launch of such ETFs accelerated institutional buying, propelling Bitcoin to pre-halving highs. With institutions now holding a significant amount of Bitcoin, any slowdown in ETF sales could delay the halving’s positive impact.
The halving last weekend marked the fourth event of its kind since the first bitcoin was produced on January 3, 2009. Following the halving, the number of bitcoin being “minted” globally each day will drop from around 900 to 450. The price of bitcoin has generally risen after each previous halving event.
Despite tracking sideways for much of the last month, the price of the cryptocurrency is still up more than 50 per cent since the start of the year. That compares to a 5.6 per cent return from the S&P 500 index and -0.1 per cent return from the ASX 200 since January 1.
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