The news outlets are full of more property news, with some spruiking that the hope of a rate cut in February has spurred people into action after the holidays, with a focus on Melbourne property prices rebounding.
So, let’s look at the data and see what is happening. Actually, the January update on prices from PropTrack showing that nationally prices fell just 0.1% in January, to a median value of $796,000.
Clearance rates are another metric in focus, but as I have discussed before they are also full of holes. Specifically, Preliminary clearance rates generally fall as the results of more auctions are collected. Domain reported a 66.6% national clearance but a year ago it was at 60.6%. CoreLogic preliminary data showed that the combined capitals returned a clearance rate of 65%.
As for wants ahead, well of course no one really knows. Which is why I run scenarios, which will be updated shortly. This week we had predictions from KPMG. As discussed in the AFR, KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said Melbourne’s house prices are tipped to climb 3.5 per cent this year, rebounding for the first time since last February, and slightly outpacing Sydney, fuelled by improved housing affordability after five years of sluggish growth, while Sydney’s housing values are expected to increase by 3.3 per cent, which is also higher than the 2.5 per cent gain last year.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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