The latest CommSec State of the States Report, to end June 2017 shows continued buoyancy in the in NSW and VIC, as well as Canberra.
The data shows housing finance in Canberra is growing at a faster rate than anywhere else in Australia. The number of new mortgages there grew 22.4% above the long term (decade) average, streets ahead of New South Wales, (15%) and Victoria (14.3%0. Plus ACT has a strong construction rating, growing at a rate 21.4% above the decade average, only behind NSW. In fact ACT was the only state or territory to increase construction levels compared to 2016!
NSW has retained its top rankings on both retail trade and dwelling starts. NSW is second on five of the eight indicators. The lowest NSW ranking is third on construction work.
Victoria has lifted from third to second on the economic performance rankings with momentum provided by its leading position on population growth. Victoria is second on two indicators and in third spot on another two indicators.
The ACT has dropped from second spot to third on the rankings. The ACT is top-ranked on housing finance, second on dwelling starts and in third spot on another three indicators. But the ACT has slipped to seventh on the unemployment ranking.
There is little to separate four of the other economies with a further gap to Western Australia.
Tasmania retains its position in fourth spot but is joined by Queensland. And South Australia has edged its way into sixth on the performance rankings from the Northern Territory.
The highest positions for Tasmania are third on population growth and unemployment. Queensland is benefitting from strong export growth which will boost overall growth of Gross State Product (economic growth). Exports are growing at a 56 per cent annual rate.
South Australia is now top-ranked on business investment. But the next best ranking is fifth on dwelling starts and housing finance.
The Northern Territory eases from sixth to seventh position on the economic performance rankings.
The Territory is still ranked first on construction work done, unemployment and economic growth. But on forwardlooking indicators like population growth, housing finance and home starts the Territory lags other economies.
The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom. But unemployment has eased over the last three months.
Ideally Gross State Product (GSP) would be used to assess broad economic growth. But the data isn’t available quarterly. And we have previously used state final demand (household and business spending) and exports less imports to act as a proxy for GSP. But the Bureau of Statistics has ceased calculation of state trade data in real terms. So we now use state final demand plus trade in nominal terms and rolling annual totals are used to remove seasonality.
The Northern Territory has retained top spot on economic growth. Economic activity in the ‘Top End’ is 29.4 per cent above its ‘normal’ or decade-average level of output.
Next strongest is NSW, with output 25.3 per cent higher than the decade average level of output. Then follows the ACT (up 25.2 per cent) from Victoria (23 per cent).
At the other end of the scale, economic activity in Tasmania in the March quarter was just 10.2 per cent above its decade average while Western Australian activity was up 10.8 per cent, behind South Australia (up 14.6 per cent) and Queensland (up 17.5 per cent).
The Northern Territory also has the fastest nominal annual economic growth rate in the nation, up by 10.4 per cent on a year ago, ahead of the ACT (up 7.3 per cent), NSW (up 6.9 per cent) and Queensland (up 5.9 per cent).
The weakest nominal annual growth rates are in South Australia (up 1.6 per cent) and Tasmania (up 1.9 per cent).
In terms of economic growth, if trend State Final Demand in real terms is used, comparing the latest result with decade averages reveals some subtle changes in the rankings. Queensland performs better using the nominal data including trade due a strong lift in exports. In the year
to March, Queensland exports were up 56 per cent on a year ago. Similarly Western Australian exports were up by 27 per cent on a year ago.
