This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, and we also cover commodities and crypto, as I get my ideas straight for the next leg of the year. In essence, AI has driven markets hard, especially in the US, but market breadth is narrow, and risks remain elevated.
Shares in New York ended lower on Friday, reversing modest opening gains after the latest inflation data showed that the disinflation narrative was intact, widening ever so slightly the door to a pivot to rate cuts. So an early rally fizzled as investors digested in-line inflation data and weighed political uncertainty after the U.S. presidential debate where the shaky performance from U.S. President Joe against Donald Trump has just ratcheted November’s U.S. election uncertainty up substantially.
Data showed U.S. monthly inflation was unchanged in May, an encouraging development after strong price increases earlier this year raised doubts over the effectiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy. The Commerce Department report also showed consumer spending rose marginally last month, fueling optimism that the U.S. central bank could engineer a much-desired “soft landing” for the economy.
There was a late wave of selling the magnificent seven, with a 3 per cent tumble in Meta. Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft each closed more than 1 per cent lower though Tesla edged 0.2 per cent higher.
Wells Fargo noted that upcoming events, such as the November elections and potential delays in disinflation, may cause episodes of market volatility in the months ahead. Worth reflecting again on the fact that thirty percent of the S&P’s returns this year have come from Nvidia alone. It was now the most expensive stock on the most expensive market in the world and the Magnificent 7 accounts for 71% of the S&P 500 Index’s year-to-date return. Tightrope time?
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