GDP Below Expectations At 0.2% SA In June

The ABS released their data today showing that in the June 2015 quarter national accounts, growth in the Australian economy slowing to 0.2% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms and 2% over the past year. It was 0.5% in trend terms, our preferred measure (given recent statistical volatility), making an annual rate of 2.2%.

GDP-Trend-June-2015The ABS showed that reduced Mining and Construction activity, coupled with a decline in Exports were the main factors to the slowdown in economic growth. Positive contributions came from Domestic final demand, and the Financial, Transport and Health industries. Mining production fell significantly this quarter (-3.0%), although it is still positive through the year with growth at 2.1%. The decline in Mining production coincides with the fall in Exports. Net exports detracted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in the quarter, through the year they added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth. This quarter continues to see the decline in mining related construction (Engineering construction -0.8%), which is reflected in the decline in Construction Gross value added (-0.6%).

There was positive growth in Domestic final demand with Household final consumption growing 0.5% this quarter and 2.5% through the year. Government final consumption had growth of 2.2% for the quarter and 4.0% through the year. Public gross fixed capital formation was up 4.0% for the June 2015 quarter, but remains subdued through the year with growth at 0.4%.

 

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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