Amundi SA, Europe’s largest money manager, says investors who have driven U.S. stock markets to record highs in expectation of fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration may be in for a surprise.
While a pivot to government spending and tax cuts may prolong the economic expansion in the U.S., Republican lawmakers will insist that fiscal measures don’t push up the deficit, Didier Borowski, the Paris-based asset manager’s head of macroeconomics, said in an interview. Even if President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in delivering stimulus, it won’t have an impact before next year, he said.
“Following the vote for Trump, markets have reacted as if there were only upside risks,” Borowski said in an interview in Munich. “U.S. equity markets could go further into bubble territory as risks are becoming increasingly asymmetric. That would be an opportunity to reallocate funds to bond markets.”
Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election in November has driven investors out of bonds and into equities, accelerating a massive flow of funds that some investors say may last for years and spell the end of the multi-decade rally in bonds. The value of global equities climbed to $68 trillion from about $65 trillion the day before the election. Bonds have lost about $2 trillion in that time.
Financial market observers and investors are split about the continuation of that trend, sometimes named the “great rotation” from bonds to stocks, with Charles Schwab Corp.’s chief global strategist Jeffrey Kleintop anticipating the it has years to run. Amundi, which is controlled by Credit Agricole SA, says a more likely scenario is that bonds may rebound because growth will probably continue at a slow pace.
“Global uncertainties are at an unprecedented level with Brexit, Trump and elections in Europe,” Borowski said, adding the biggest risk would be a trade war between the U.S. and China. “The bond market isn’t dead yet. There are many unpredictable risks still looming and that’s why we really doubt that bond yields can jump that much. Investors will keep an exposure to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven.”
Investors may also return to Europe, once the outcome of elections removes political uncertainty in the region, he said.
“Some investors have stayed clear of Europe following Brexit,” Borowski said. “At some point in the coming months we will be reassured concerning the political risks in Europe, especially in France, where we don’t expect French National Front leader Marine Le Pen to be elected.”
Amundi was created in 2010 when Credit Agricole and Societe Generale SA combined their asset-management businesses. It went public in 2015 to fund its international expansion as Societe Generale sold its stake.
Amundi agreed in December to buy Pioneer Investments from Italy’s UniCredit SpA for about 3.5 billion euros ($3.7 billion) in cash, bringing assets to more than $1.3 trillion and making it the world’s eighth-largest asset manager.
