APRA has issued an update on Australian Bank capital ratios. They show that banks in Australia have lifted their capital base in the past year, (e.g. CET1 from 11.7% to 13.5% on an international comparison basis at December 2015), but APRA also underscores the fact that even higher capital ratios will be required to meet tighter rules, and to ensure that local banks do not slip down the international ranking, so as to maintain their ratios as “unquestionably strong”. This is because regulators are driving ratios higher in many countries.
Higher capital costs of course, and in in the normal course of business, will lead to more expensive loans and lower returns to shareholders. We think dividends will be under pressure in the next couple of years.
It is also worth saying that APRA is disclosing aggregate data, so variations across individual banks will be masked. This makes an interesting comparison to data from the FED where the results of capital stress tests are reported at an institution level. We think APRA should report capital ratios by individual institution, but of course they won’t.
In July 2015, APRA published the Information Paper International capital comparison study (2015 study) as an important first step in addressing the Financial System Inquiry (FSI) recommendation to set capital standards such that Australian authorised deposit-taking institution (ADI) capital ratios are ‘unquestionably strong’.
In its final report, the FSI suggested that for banks to be regarded as unquestionably strong they should have capital ratios that position them in the top quartile of internationally-active banks. APRA’s 2015 study, which adjusted for differences in measurement methodology across jurisdictions and uses a number of different measures of capital strength, found that the Australian major banks were well-capitalised, but not in the top quartile of international peers.
In particular, APRA’s 2015 study found that, based on the major banks’ capital adequacy ratios at 30 June 2014, a 70 basis point (bp) increase in capital ratios would be required to position the major banks’ Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio at the international 75th percentile (i.e. the bottom of the top quartile) and that they would likely need to increase their capital adequacy ratios by a larger amount to be comfortably positioned in the top quartile over the medium to long term.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel Committee) recently published an updated quantitative impact study (QIS)1 including the capital ratios of internationally active banks as of 30 June 2015. Based on the same methodology used in APRA’s 2015 study and using the latest Basel QIS, APRA has recently reviewed the major banks’ relative position to their international peers. To incorporate the capital raisings undertaken by the major banks, particularly during the second half of 2015, this update is based on their capital ratios as at December 2015.
As detailed in APRA’s 2015 study, the major banks’ weighted average comparison CET1 ratio was estimated as 11.7 per cent as at June 2014. Chart 1 shows that by December 2015, this ratio had increased by 180 bps to 13.5 per cent. This increase was the result of a range of factors, but the largest single driver was the substantial capital raisings by the major banks in the latter part of 2015. The differential between the CET1 ratio under APRA’s requirements and the international comparison ratio also increased: in broad terms, the differential as at December 2015 was 350 basis points.
On a relative basis, the strengthening of the major banks’ CET1 ratios placed them, on average, at approximately 40 bps above the June 2015 Basel QIS 75th percentile of 13.1 per cent for Group 1 banks.2 The improvement in the relative position of the major banks in Chart 1 is likely to be somewhat overstated by the timing differences between the international (June 2015) and Australian (December 2015) data. On average, the 75th percentile CET1 ratio in the Basel QIS has tended to increase by approximately 25-35 basis points each half year, suggesting the 75th percentile would be somewhat higher had December 2015 QIS data been available to APRA. Nevertheless, notwithstanding this timing difference, the relative positioning of the Australian major banks’ CET1 ratios now seems broadly in line with the benchmark suggested by the FSI.
Chart 1: CET1 ratios of Basel QIS and major banks3
Source: APRA data
Furthermore, since the 2015 study the relative position of the major banks’ other weighted average comparison capital ratios have improved compared to the distribution of Basel QIS Group 1 banks.4 As shown in Chart 2, the major banks’:
- comparison Tier 1 ratio of 14.8 per cent is positioned in the top quartile as compared to the third quartile as at June 2014; and
- comparison Total capital ratio of 16 per cent is positioned at the bottom of the top quartile as compared to the median of the distribution as at June 2014.
The relative position of the major banks’ Tier 1 Leverage ratio of 5.4 per cent has also increased to a level above the median (but still below the top quartile) of the distribution of Basel QIS Group 1 banks. This compares to the banks’ position below the median in the 2015 study.
Chart 2: Capital adequacy ratios of Basel QIS (June 2015) and major banks (Dec 2015)
Source: APRA data
As noted above the major banks have undertaken significant capital raisings since the 2015 study, which has significantly improved their capital adequacy positon relative to international peers. That said, the trend of international peer banks strengthening their capital ratios continues. Forthcoming international policy developments will also likely mean that Australian banks need to continue to improve their capital ratios in order to at least maintain, if not improve, their relative positioning. The final design and calibration of these reforms will not be decided until around the end of 2016, and it would be prudent for Australian ADIs to continue to plan for the likelihood of strengthened capital requirements in some areas.
As detailed in the 2015 study, APRA’s analysis on the relative positioning of major bank capital ratios is intended to inform, but not determine, its approach for setting capital adequacy requirements. Recent regulatory actions (such as that applying to mortgage risk weights announced in July 2015), and the resulting improvement in the major banks’ international capital comparison, provide the necessary time for APRA to consider the full range of factors that are relevant to satisfy the FSI’s unquestionably strong recommendation. Critically this includes assessing the impact of the Basel Committee reforms as they are finalised and considering how other measures of resilience, such as liquidity, funding, asset quality, and recovery and resolution planning can assist in achieving the FSI’s objective.
APRA intends to provide further insight to these broader considerations once the Basel Committee has completed its deliberations on the international framework around the end of 2016.
1 Basel Committee, Basel III monitoring report, March 2016.
2 Basel QIS Group 1 banks comprises approximately 100 internationally active banks with Tier 1 capital of more than 3 billion Euros.
3 In Charts 1 and 2 the Australia (headline) ratios are determined under APRA’s prudential framework. The Australia (Basel QIS) ratios are derived from the Basel QIS which requires banks to report their regulatory capital base in an internationally-consistent manner. The Australia (comparison ratio) ratios are calculated using the methodology set out in the 2015 study.
4 Consistent with the 2015 study the reported Basel QIS and comparison Tier 1 and comparison Total capital adequacy ratios have not been adjusted for the impact of transitional legacy capital as this issue affects banks in most jurisdictions. The major banks’ headline Total capital ratio is higher than their Basel QIS Total capital ratio as APRA’s framework allows for phasing out of legacy capital instruments
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