The ABS released their latest on CPI, with the quarterly results to June, and the monthly. The data of course feeds into the RBA rate decision next Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0 per cent in the June 2024 quarter and 3.8 per cent annually. So real prices are still rising. Underlying inflation which measures reduce the impact of irregular or temporary price changes in the CPI – the annual trimmed mean inflation was 3.9 per cent, down from 4.0 per cent in the March quarter. This is the sixth quarter in a row of lower annual trimmed mean inflation, down from the peak of 6.8 per cent in the December 2022 quarter.
At first blush, the data could be bent in support of an argument that inflation continues to fall, especially if you focus on the core measure, which is precisely where Treasure Chalmers went in his statement, and in which he also argued that inflation was about 0.5% lower thanks to Government support for electricity and rents, etc. ““While headline inflation is proving sticky and stubborn, and is more persistent than we would like, it is less than half its peak,” he said. “Inflation is lingering for longer than we had hoped across the globe, and Australia’s experience is no different.”
But then, remembering RBA Governor Bullock said she would look through these temporary adjustments, the story swings more to the rise in headline inflation, which came in as expected. Actually the RBA was forecasting CPI inflation to reach 3.8%yr in the June quarter, in line with today’s result. However, for core inflation, the RBA was also forecasting 3.8%yr for June, so the 3.9%yr pace was a touch stronger than they were expecting.
All this means if the RBA felt the need to lift rates they could justify it, but also if not, they could find reason to hold, so if comes down to judgement and weighting the political and economic consequences. Nothing here though to justify a rate cut.
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