According to the latest ANZ Australian Job Ads, Job advertisements fell 0.8% m/m in April and remain broadly unchanged since October last year. In trend terms, job ads fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.2% m/m in April. The number of internet job ads fell 0.7% m/m in April and the more volatile newspaper component dropped 6.2% m/m.
ANZ says:
The number of job ads has been broadly flat now for six months. This follows a period of substantial growth in employment, so some modest slowdown should probably not be surprising. The moderation in job ads could alternatively reflect some uncertainty by firms around the near term outlook, given the double dissolution election in July, or a general softening of the economic outlook.
The reaction to the 2016 Budget has been quite mixed, and the RBA’s cut in its cash rate last week to an historic low of 1.75% highlights the challenges for Australia’s economy. While business surveys suggest activity is still robust, the stimulus from housing and the lower AUD is likely to fade somewhat in 2016, and growth is likely to moderate. Inflation is very low and likely to stay outside the RBA’s 2-3% target band for some time.
ANZ job ads suggest that the economy has lost some momentum after strong growth in H2 2015. Hiring looks to be taking a breather for the time being, and further significant inroads into the unemployment rate may be more difficult to achieve in the near term.
