ANZ says after falling in July, job advertisements bounced a solid 1.8% m/m in August and are up 8% over the past year. In trend terms, job ads were up 0.5% m/m, suggesting a moderate pace of labour market improvement.
“The bounce in ANZ job ads in August is an encouraging sign that the improvement in labour market conditions is continuing. The rise in job ads is consistent with the ongoing strength in business conditions and increasing capacity utilisation reported in the business surveys.
The pace of improvement in job ads suggests that labour market conditions are improving moderately. While it does not suggest a rapid turnaround in the unemployment rate, it points to ongoing growth in employment. At current levels, the rate of job ads growth is consistent with employment growing at an annual pace of close to 2% y/y.
Overall, this is consistent with our view that the unemployment rate will slowly improve over the next year, supported by low interest rates and solid business conditions.”
