We should expect volatility to amp up Monday and is already heading for its biggest two-month surge in a year, according to a gauge of cross-asset expectations for price swings in Treasuries, U.S. stocks and global currencies. Treasuries are leading the way.
But this potentially is another Lehman moment, as the U.S. and its European allies stepped up their response to the escalating conflict as Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s military advance to proceed, announcing plans to sanction the central bank in Moscow and cut off various Russian lenders from the critical SWIFT financial messaging system. That comes on top of earlier moves against the country’s biggest banks and restrictions on the nation’s bonds. Russia’s currency has fallen to a record low amid the current crisis.
As a result, it is likely that all thoughts of QT and inflation control will be swamped by the potential need for liquidity and Central Banks will do what they keep doing.
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