The roller coaster ride continued again this week on the markets, as traders were dazzled by strong corporate results from NVIDA underscoring the power of the AI super cycle on one hand, and by really mixed data signals on the other thanks to a raft of better-than-expected purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from across the northern hemisphere, while rates higher for longer came back into focus, with hope of rate cuts being squeezed further.
The economic data points to a strong economy and inflation that won’t go away. Couple yesterday’s PMI data with a slew of Fed speakers this week and the Fed minutes, which suggested the central bank could keep rates high for longer than expected, as well as a string of warnings on inflation from Federal Reserve officials, investors have realized that either the Fed has no idea what it is doing when it comes to inflation and the path of monetary policy or investors are starting to sense that the Fed rate hiking cycle may not be over. Financial markets now fully price just one quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year – compared to the six built into futures prices at the start of 2024.
European equities have traded lower at the end of the week, tracking weakness in Asia and also Wall Street as increasing anxiety over sticky U.S. inflation and high interest rates battered sentiment towards risk-driven assets.
China was hit with a wave of negative sentiment this week as a trade war with the U.S. appeared to have escalated.
A Wall Street sell-off rattled Australian capital markets on Friday as bond yields rose and investors trimmed rate cut bets, sending technology, retail and banking sector shares sharply lower.
So standing back, signs of the consensus belief in a soft landing, interest rate cuts and resilient growth in earnings are everywhere. There’s the grind higher in share market indices despite rich valuations and non-existent risk premiums (the difference between earnings yields and bond yields).
It’s worth remembering the words of an eternal bull in the late, great Charlie Munger, who urged investors to “invert, always invert”. “Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backwards. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there?”
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