As I suggested in recent posts, the markets are in a volatile frame of mind, and this won’t change quickly, as the fundamentals are shifting under us. I still hold the view that the stock market is vulnerable to a big selloff once liquidity is withdrawn and interest rates rise. Yet, despite some obvious wobbles, central banks have ensured money has stayed plentiful for the last decade, they cut interest rates rates have fallen, and as a result, anyone who did much to protect themselves against the risk of a decline would have done badly by it.
And on the other side, the bulls still argue that the environment remains set fair for stocks, and that even a fall in bonds would ram home the fact that there is no alternative to equities. And of course they’ve been right for the best part of a decade. And they will be, until they are not.
If you had looked at the US markets an hour or two before close, you would say the markets were continuing their linear falls. Yet, these kinds of sudden widespread losses day after day, week after week, are screaming for a bounce. And we got one.
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