ABC Media Watch discussed the recent 60 Minutes segment which I participated in on Property Prices, and the economic context.
As I already discussed, Nine went with most severe scenario, and added in a 12 months time-frame which I never referred to (always 2-3 years). And in any case, I predicated all my answers as “in the worst case”.
For those who missed the original segments they are on YouTube. And you can watch my own discussion of the programme – “The Debt Bomb That No One Wants To Talk About“.
Being dubbed a property bear by Media Watch is quite amusing remembering Paul Barry’s reported from the US some time back on the horrid aftermath of the US property crash. I merely remind him, and others that the film “The Big Short” appears to be playing out here in Australia in real time. “Bunkum” it is not.
Sure, the data lite property spruikers are all saying there is no bust coming despite:
- 40% less borrowing power than a year ago
- Liar loans in the portfolio
- Interest Only loans resets
- Flat wages growth
- Rising costs of living
- Rising interest rates
- Many newly constructed units unsold, despite deep discounts
- No rise in the average number of people per home (according to the ABS)
- The falls we have already observed
- Rising defaults (from a low base)
- Royal Commission
- Etc…
… Just saying…
60 Minutes also published a summary of my views in this “extras” segment. This cuts to the heart of the debate in my view. Still hoping for some intelligent discussions on the issues… but it takes two to tango!
And 4 Corners ran several shows about mortgage stress in Australia 2007-09…
Also, the 4 Corners piece on Biosecurity (in August) focusing especially on white spot (WSV) in prawns was long on sensation and short on fact. I worked for Biosecurity Australia and was lead author on the first draft import risk analysis for prawns, and when I retired from science I was likely the only Australian then who had worked with WSV and certainly the only researcher to expose native crustaceans to the virus (and in the 18 months I spent unemployed back in Australia I tried in vain to obtain funding to answer many of the questions surrounding this type of viruses within Australia)… But that’s another story…