Research by National Australia Bank indicates that Australia is about half way though the fall in mining investment. They estimate that 46,000 mining related jobs have already been lost since 2012 and another 50,000 will go as mining-related activity rotates from construction to operations, where a smaller work force is needed.
The note says that the bulk of the fall will likely occur in WA, because of the state’s lack of employment diversity, though some will also be cut in QLD. Jobs in other industries will take up some of the slack, but the net reduction in employment is expected to be quite stark.
We expect some households to come under more intense financial pressure as a result, with an impact of home values and higher mortgage default rates, especially in some regional centres in WA and QLD.
