Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The Australian Financial Review covered the latest DFA mortgage stress research today, even if they managed to scramble the data in the chart I provided. Here is the correct data. This is what the AFR wrote: Household debt is rocketing towards 190 per cent of disposable incomes, ramping up pressure on the Reserve Bank of … Continue reading “Malcolm Turnbull backs RBA warning as household debt hits new record”
The latest results from the Digital Finance Analytics mortgage stress modelling, released today, reveals another rise in the number of households experiencing mortgage stress. Martin North, Principal of Digital Finance Analytics said “of the 3.1 million mortgaged households, latest results from the DFA surveys of 52,000 households reveals an estimated 669,000 are now experiencing mortgage … Continue reading “Mortgage Stress Rises Again”
After I posted the summary data on owner occupied mortgages yesterday, including the latest estimated probability of 30-day default, I was asked if I could estimate the relative value-at-risk by state represented by these numbers, with a focus on WA. Hi Martin, It looks as if WA is in some serious trouble. Do you know … Continue reading “Relative Value At Risk By State”
We have pulled out the latest data on residential mortgaged households, incorporating the latest mortgage increases and market valuations. So today we run over the top-level vital statistics. To explain, our market model replicates the industry, across all lenders banks and non-banks and looks beyond the performance of just the securitised mortgage pools (as some … Continue reading “Mortgaged Households, Vital Statistics”
Following on from yesterday’s post, where we listed the post codes with the largest number of currently mortgage stressed households, we will now go into more detail across the main states. We commence this journey of pain by looking at NSW, where of course home prices have risen strongly, mortgages are large, and incomes static. … Continue reading “Latest Greater Sydney Mortgage Stress Mapping”
From The Australian Financial Review. Mortgage rates are set to rise for both fixed and variable rate borrowers this year as global interest rates shoot higher, competition eases and capital rules begin to bite. “Borrowers should assume we are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle – in fact we are probably already past … Continue reading “Home loan rates heading higher as funding costs rise, competition eases”
We have had an avalanche of requests for further information about our monthly mortgage stress research which is published as a series of blog posts plus coverage in the media, including Four Corners. Here is the timeline of recent posts, which together provides a comprehensive view of the work. Check out our media coverage.
From The US Conversation. Speeding up payments to SME’s would have a major positive impact. Operating a small business, the backbone of the U.S. economy, has always been tough. The same is true in Australia, and cash flow is a major challenge, as data from our SME survey shows: According to The Conversation, SME’s also … Continue reading “How speeding up payments to small businesses creates jobs”
From The Mises Institute. Mervyn King is the British Ben Bernanke. An eminent academic economist, who now teaches both at New York University and the London School of Economics, King was from 2003 to 2013 Governor of the Bank of England. In short, he is a very big deal. Remarkably, in The End of Alchemy … Continue reading “Central Bankers Are Losing Faith in Their Own Alchemy”
To complete our series on mortgage stress, based on our household surveys, here is the complete list of the top 100 most stressed suburbs, and their relative position on the default list, as at December 2016. Victoria has the highest number of suburbs in the listing. As we discussed yesterday, this is based on the … Continue reading “The Full 100 Mortgage Stress Listing”