Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
In the current discussions about macroprudential, stimulated by the RBA comments last week and likely to be stoked further as the RBA appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, many are claiming that household balance sheets and incomes are supporting the growth in house prices, and so no intervention is needed. The chair of … Continue reading “Household Incomes And Property Segmentation”
The RBA just released their Financial Stability Review for September 2014. They made a number of comments on Housing Lending, which I have collated in a more digestible form here. INVESTMENT LENDING Household credit growth has picked up, almost entirely driven by investor housing credit, which is growing at its fastest pace since late 2007. … Continue reading “RBA On Housing Lending in Financial Stability Review”
We have updated our mortgage stress models, to take account of the latest tranche of economic data, including falling real incomes, potential uplifts in capital requirements and inflation running hot, so creating the need to lift interest rates; and demand for property continuing to go ahead of supply. Our recent post the Anatomy of Mortgage … Continue reading “Mortgage Stress Coming To A Household Near You”
We have just received the latest findings from our Small and Medium Business surveys, which shows that many are still running hard to stand still and are unwilling or unable to borrow more. The sector is an important bell-weather for the broader economy, because nearly half of all Australian households are reliant in part or … Continue reading “SME’s Business Grinds On”
In the RBA Bulletin there is an interesting analysis of foreign property investors in the commercial sector. The FIRB publish data on approvals for proposed foreign investment on an annual basis. The value of these approvals has increased substantially in recent years, from $11 billion in 2009/10 to nearly $35 billion in 2012/13 Foreigners have … Continue reading “Foreign Commercial Property Investment Significant – RBA”
The RBA published the notes from their last meeting today. The theme was similar to previous ones, “Members considered that the most prudent course was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates,” but in the variations, there was a sub-text relating to property prices. I have extracted just those paragraphs: Members noted … Continue reading “RBA And Property Speculation”
The ABS published their Building Approvals Data to July 2014 today. Statistics of building work approved are compiled from, permits issued by local government authorities and other principal certifying authorities; contracts let or day labour work authorised by commonwealth, state, semi-government and local government authorities; and major building approvals in areas not subject to normal … Continue reading “Building Approvals To July 2014”
RP Data just released their latest weekly trends data. First the data shows a weekly fall overall in capital city house prices, with Sydney and Adelaide the only centres showing an uplift. Sydney prices continue their run ahead of other states. Median house and unit prices are highest in Sydney, with Perth, Darwin and Canberra … Continue reading “RP Data Weekly Property Trends”
An extract from the latest edition of the DFA report, the Property Imperative, released last week. The Australian Residential Property market is valued at over $5.2 trillion and includes houses, semi-detached dwellings, townhouses, terrace houses, flats, units and apartments. In the past 10 years the total value has more than doubled. It is one of … Continue reading “The Current State Of Play In The Property Market”
The ABS released their Building Approvals data series today to July 2014. The seasonally adjusted figures show a lift on the previous month, although the original data shows a slight fall. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.5% in July and has fallen for seven months, however the seasonally adjusted estimate for total … Continue reading “Building Approvals Up in July – ABS”