Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
US Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based … Continue reading “Real US GDP Drops in 4Q – Initial Estimate”
From News.com.au ONE in five Australians are walking such a fine mortgage tightrope that they could lose their homes if interest rates rise by even 0.5 per cent. Our love affair with property has pushed Australia’s residential housing market to an eye-watering value of $6.2 trillion. But as we scramble over each other to snap … Continue reading “One in five homeowners will struggle with rate rise of less than 0.5%”
From Business Insider. Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on Australia’s banking for 2017 to negative from stable. In its 2017 outlook report, the agency says the change reflects an increase in macroeconomic risks and pressure on profit growth. The change follows Moody’s which in August last year changed the outlook for the banking system … Continue reading “Fitch puts Australian banks on negative watch”
The Bank of England just published a staff working paper “Specialisation in mortgage risk under Basel II“. Lenders using the less sophisticated risk models (generally smaller banks) are found to have a higher concentration of higher-risk mortgages than those using the advanced models. They looked at the two models which were introduced under Basel II, … Continue reading “Analysis of Mortgage Risk Under Basel”
From The UK Conversation. The median UK household is better off. The poorest households are doing even better than the median, and the richest households have been the greatest losers. At least that’s one way to read the headline statistics put out by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on January 10 in a new … Continue reading “Are the rich really getting poorer and the poor getting richer?”
Given the recent data, no surprise the latest RBA chart pack includes the updated household finances data to December 2016, and shows a further rise in the debt to disposable income ratio. Given that lending growth is around 6.5% over the past year and income growth much lower, this trend is likely to continue. However, … Continue reading “Household Debt Higher, Yet Again”
The MYEFO was released today. In essence, it has quite an optimistic tint, but fundamentally growth is too weak, so incomes, business investment and tax takes will be depressed. Whilst there is some chance of a “free-kick” from some commodity prices, the outlook is not great, and net government debt has yet to peak. The … Continue reading “MYEFO – Will Mortgage Rates Rise?”
Having looked at events in the Property Market in 2016, we now turn to our expectations for 2017. There are many uncertainties which may impact the market, but using our surveys and modelling as a guide, we can make some educated guesses. First, mortgage rates will be higher by the end of 2017 than they … Continue reading “So Where Will The Property Market Go In 2017?”
From The Conversation. The average housing costs of older (65-plus) outright homeowners in lone-person households were A$38 a week in 2013-14, the Australian Bureau of Statistics calculated, compared to $103 for older social housing tenants and $232 for older private renters. Fortunately, over the last several decades almost all Australians who depend on the age … Continue reading “Affordable housing is an increasing worry for age pensioners”
Today we start a short series which will review the property market in 2016, and then look forward to 2017. We will start by looking at demand for property, then look at property and funding supply, before examining the risk elements in the market for both property owners, lenders and the broader economy. Remember that … Continue reading “The 2016 Property Market In Review”